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Thread: Input Requested Regarding Apparent AP Strategies

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    Input Requested Regarding Apparent AP Strategies

    Hello all,

    Over the years, I have developed what appear to be winning AP blackjack strategies that are not at all about counting. They only work with blackjack dealt from cards shuffled MANUALLY, not shuffled by a machine. As such, I don't think sims have evolved to the point of entirely capturing the nuances of the flawed (nonrandom) human shuffle, but maybe I am wrong. (BTW, see research of mathematicians demonstrating what it takes to randomly shuffle cards.). But the purpose of this post is not to start a discussion about this shuffling.

    I currently lack the bankroll to implement my strategies, and this will not likely change for a while. So, my question is, what are my options? I don't want to reveal my 'secrets' to just anyone. I guess I am looking for investors or buyers who would sign a NDA. What other possibilities are there? For instance, maybe players I disclose a strategy to would be willing to share a percentage of the profits that they enjoy?

    Productive input is welcome please. Remember we are all trying to do the same thing, even though this post will likely soon have a pretty yellow background (voodoo) .

    Seriously interested parties can PM me if that is possible through this site.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    As such, I don't think sims have evolved to the point of entirely capturing the nuances of the flawed (nonrandom) human shuffle, but maybe I am wrong.
    There are simulated hand shuffles that do a very good job of simulating a hand shuffle.

    You should be able to give a general idea of how you get an advantage without revealing anything that gives away your system. Right now everyone is thinking you just got lucky and think what you did is why you won. If you show something that would get people thinking otherwise you might get responses.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    I don't think sims have evolved to the point of entirely capturing the nuances of the flawed (nonrandom) human shuffle, but maybe I am wrong.
    Well, yep you're wrong. CVData/ST can simulate actual shuffles which can be specified in great detail. I've never seen a common shuffle that results in a significant difference.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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    Thanks for the reply, Norm. What are you looking for when deciding whether or not your shuffle reflects an actual casino human (nonrandom) shuffle? What markers or indicators do you use, if I may ask?

    I believe I can watch a table and, after a while, tell you whether the cards were machine shuffled or whether the dealer used her hands to shuffle based on the manner in which players are winning and losing. Voodoo? If you believe it is voodoo, why is it such a leap to go from believing there is indeed a difference between a machine shuffle and a human shuffle (which I believe you believe, please correct me if I am wrong) to believing the cards 'play out' differently based on how they were shuffled?
    Last edited by Overkill; 02-09-2019 at 06:30 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    1. I sim real shuffles because they matter if you are shuffle tracking. They don't matter if you are card counting, unless the shuffle is spectacularly bad.
    2. In most games, a deck of cards has 52 card values. In blackjack, it has ten card values. The difference in combinations is monumental.
    3. Casino shuffles are quite complex these days. They are adequately random.
    4. What I look for in judging the randomness of a shuffle is the overall effect on results.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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    Sorry for the confusion. I edited post #4 because I was wrongly interpreting what you had written, so Norm can you reply to the revised post #4 (edited at 830 pm) please?
    Last edited by Overkill; 02-09-2019 at 07:11 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I don't know what you're getting at. I don't believe a player can tell the difference between a machine shuffle and a human shuffle in a casino.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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    Shuffletracking is why you pursue the human shuffle. I don't know what it is that is producing the effects I see over and over again with human shuffles, across dealers, casinos, etc.

    Bryce Carlson admitted some nonrandom "clumping" effects are, among other things, "generally small, probably not exploitable, rarely (if ever) encountered in the real world - and such biases seem to favor the house as often as they favor the player. But they are there."

    I don't believe Carlson's sims from 6 years ago adequately mimicked a real, human, casino shuffle. I believe that in order to see the effects I see, one needs to use real cards with real dealers.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Do you mean his study here: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/en...Bryce-Carlson?

    He was using Omega II which is based on UBE. The latest edition of Bryce's book has a new chapter describing my software. In any case, I'd hardly call it an "admission". His conclusion was that clumping is phony. The sims I've done include all sorts of variation, including changes in average riffle size and variance as a riffle is performed due to the changing angle of the cards against the dealer's thumbs. I've never seen a significant difference from using a PRNG. As for what people perceive in real casino conditions -- the mind is a trick thing. It naturally tries to find patterns in randomness.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

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    Yes, Norm, those are the studies to which I am referring.

    Sorry, you are right - "admitted" is too strong of a word to use.

    My fear as expressed in the original post came true - this thread became a thread about shuffling and not how to capitalize on my strategies without a sufficient bankroll. I am still open to more input please.

    But it has been a good discussion - thanks "Three" and Norm.

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