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Thread: Getting a handle on bad variance

  1. #1


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    Getting a handle on bad variance

    First of all I'd like to say thanks to all those on this forum who have taught me so much. I've been counting on a recreational basis for almost a year now but I continue to learn new things almost daily. I post only occasionally but I visit the site several times a day. I'd like to especially thank Norm for hosting this great site and for his phenomenal CV software (which is a must have for anyone who wants to count). Enough ass kissing

    People often warn newbies about the enormous swings inherent in this game but I think it's difficult to really get a grasp on the likelihood of a significant downswing. Many focus on the hourly win rate and when they hit a bad stretch, find it difficult to accept/believe. I've recently hit a bad stretch myself and it got me questioning whether I'm actually playing a winning game or not. Below is some information I've tried to remind myself of during my recent soul-searching. I think this is all correct. Feel free to add or edit as you see fit:

    Wherever your current bankroll sits, it is more likely than not to go down, at least somewhat, in the short term but is still likely to go up in the long term. Regardless of the count, you're more likely to lose the next hand you play than you are to win it. Consider Table 84 on page 197 of Wong's Professional Blackjack. A HiLo player spreading from $5 to $50 on a 6D shoe who sits out negative counts and plays 4,000 hands has a 50% chance of going at least $900 in the hole at some point during those 4,000 hands. If he's a green chipper spreading from $25 to $250, he has a 50% chance of going $4500 in the hole at some point.
    I use CVCX to get my own "50% chance of losing" number and I'm curious to know if what I'm doing is correct. After I put in my data, I then click the "Freeze custom bets" button and start decreasing the bankroll number until the risk of ruin hits 50%. I've been surprised how high this number is! For instance, if I plug in HiLo Sweet 16 Fab 4 for 6D 4 players H17 DAS Sr 75% pen 100 rounds/hr 1:12 spread $25 min play all 30K BR, I get an hourly win rate of $50.74 - not too shabby. If I then freeze the custom bets, and decrease the bankroll I find that I have a 52.9% chance of being down at least $7,725 at some point. That's more than 25% of the bankroll. Now admittedly that assumes no Wonging, but still, that's scary when you know that's PERFECT PLAY with no cover. For my particular game, my 50% chance of losing number is about $6,000.
    This not only applies to when you start, it applies to any time in your career. Take me for instance. When I first started, I went down $1600 before I started winning. I then hit an all-time high of $4,500 after 50 hours of play (averaging $90/hour - well above my expected EV) and thought I can't lose. Well, I can and I did. Over the next 35 hours, I lost $4,100 (including 6 straight losing sessions recently) and I'm now almost back to even. In fact, when you consider transportation costs (which I track), I'm actually losing money. The scariest thing is this - despite having lost big recently, I still have a 50% chance of losing 6K more. That 4.1K I've lost recently doesn't mean my "50% chance of losing" number is now 1.9K. Nope, it's still 6K. There's no such thing as being "due" because you've lost recently. The cards don't remember that you just lost your shirt.

    Card counting may be simple, but it sure ain't easy!
    Last edited by Cardguy; 08-05-2016 at 06:47 PM.

  2. #2


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    Summarized in WWE Godfather terms, "Pimping ain't easy." And as all here know, neither is succeeding at card counting.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Galvin View Post
    "Pimping ain't easy."
    Counting Cards is Easy. Taking home the money is not.

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    Your stats are based on short term results. Not once did you mention the long run - and really, that's what the game us all about. Also, as you question yourself - are you playing a winning game. Think you need someone to audit and grade your abilities, giving constructive criticism where necessary. Your post is to long - what is your actual bankroll, how many decks, what are the rules, what is the deck. Answer those questions, briefly, and we can give you some further insight.

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    I feel your pain. I'm right now going through the biggest/quickest downswing I've ever experienced. I was up $20k for the year, then in the last 12 sessions, I lost 8 of them and the net loss was $10k. Here are my thoughts right now:

    I didn't question whether I was playing a winning game when I was winning. I know my game can succeed and I know when I've made mistakes at the table. Huge downswings don't come from making a few playing or betting errors. Huge downswings happen because that's how the game works. You get bad cards or the dealer gets good cards or some dreadful combination thereof. When the best index plays I've made all night is standing on my 14s and 15s vs. the dealer's 10, you know it's not your night!

    Casino Verite helped me understand (feel) the variance, because I went through a couple similar downswings in practice play. If you want to succeed in this game, any seasoned player will tell you that perseverance may be the most important quality. I always think back and chuckle about one of SCG's posts where he said that very few people could play at the level he does because "...they would shit themselves when their bankroll went from $1.2M to $700k."

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    98% of the time your bankroll will be below it's all time high. Sobering, no?

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    I find it interesting how card counters can take an absolute beating at the tables while the ploppies lose a little bit and get all mad and upset. I've had instances where a ploppy is is losing relatively small bets and gets mad and berates the dealer and everyone around them. Where I'm sitting there losing my max bets and pulling bills out of the wallet and just keep playing. Have had dealer comments on how mellow I am and how nice I since I am still in a good mood when winning or losing.

    I have often wondered if our ability to just take an absolute beating and keep pulling bills out on the felt is almost a tell?? Most people cant just keep throwing money out and be calm...

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by bec88 View Post
    I find it interesting how card counters can take an absolute beating at the tables while the ploppies lose a little bit and get all mad and upset. I've had instances where a ploppy is is losing relatively small bets and gets mad and berates the dealer and everyone around them. Where I'm sitting there losing my max bets and pulling bills out of the wallet and just keep playing. Have had dealer comments on how mellow I am and how nice I since I am still in a good mood when winning or losing.

    I have often wondered if our ability to just take an absolute beating and keep pulling bills out on the felt is almost a tell?? Most people cant just keep throwing money out and be calm...
    Showing no emotion when losing huge sums is a major tell. Why would you think otherwise? Once the casino sees you moving to the baccarat or craps table after a nasty beating, they tend to dismiss you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    Showing no emotion when losing huge sums is a major tell. Why would you think otherwise? Once the casino sees you moving to the baccarat or craps table after a nasty beating, they tend to dismiss you.
    Yeah i figured at least putting on an act that you are least somewhat upset losing is worthwhile.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    Showing no emotion when losing huge sums is a major tell. Why would you think otherwise? Once the casino sees you moving to the baccarat or craps table after a nasty beating, they tend to dismiss you.
    I had a dealer not too long ago getting more upset than I about my losing. Several max bets in a row were lost. He said to me "how can you be so patient?" Uh oh! Looks like I need to be at least as upset as the dealer!
    It's not hard for me to be upset when losing. I'm just not someone that naturally puts their emotions on display in public. Not long ago, I lost just over $10,000 in a three day period before it started returning (not overall bankroll, just losses for those three days). Thank goodness my overall bankroll was just coming off of an all-time high. THIS is what finally made me start showing some emotion naturally. It sucked. Looking back now, I don't know why I even let it bother me. I have already recovered most of it.

  11. #11
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    lol

  12. #12


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    Bottomline, in my view, you can win as a red chipper/low green chip only if you have few expenses, have local casinos to play at. Even then, if you have only a few local casinos, your success lasts till you are backed off or counter measured. Depending on your cover and get spread this could be 1-5 years. Once the option of local casinos is gone and you have to travel, have expenses, then you will not earn much as a red chipper/ low green player. You find yourself winning at the tables but the expenses make it a very small win. The process of burning out begins.

    You can travel and do well provided you have the fortitude to bet bigger, deal with the bigger variance and have the requisite BR. I don't have it.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardguy View Post
    Card counting may be simple, but it sure ain't easy!
    I remember when I first found out about card counting. I thought, "why aren`t more people doing this?!" Of course this was before I really understood everything about it and what you have to go through to be really successful with it. Your CVCX exercise is a good idea, I hadn`t thought about that specifically before, and was surprised at how large the amount was for me also. I think everyone just starting out should do things like this, because it keeps the shocking reality of how big the swings are right in the front of your mind. Another helpful stat is that the square root of your risk of ruin also represents the percentage of time you lose half your bankroll. Actually I think that`s from the book you mentioned in your post.

    I remember Jabberwocky a long time ago saying that he thought a professional should have at least 300 max bets as a bankroll. Not that I disagreed before, but after seeing what I have, now I definitely think that`s the best thing to shoot for before trying to make counting your full time gig. Not only because you have such a lower possibility of losing it all, but also because it makes it way less stressful when you have a really bad downswing.

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