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Thread: Book recomendation: calculate ev, sd, risk.

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by dharmaprija View Post
    I'm going to sound like a broken record at this point and cost be damned if you're truly serious, get CVCX, CVBJ & CVData. BEST investment for newbs needing SIMS (esp those of us unable to write them ourselves). If you practice bj on your own incessantly get CVCX first and then pair with CVData later and CVBJ last. If practice and counting/Tc conversion are the priority get Cvbj first but all three are invaluable.
    I know it would be of great help to have those programs and that is and investment, but I´m trying to avoid them for now. Maybe later if I happen to play more often.

  2. #15
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    If you have the EV and SD, you can calc the RoR. But, how do you get the EV and SD? It's an intractable math problem.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    If you have the EV and SD, you can calc the RoR. But, how do you get the EV and SD? It's an intractable math problem.
    I understand that. You can only get the EV with simulations. But isn´t that the same for calculating the advantage of playing perfect basic strategy for a specific game?

    And they did calculate that number and also some extra ones, for each rule changes, that you can aply to get the real advantage for your game.

    So I thought there would be some numbers for standar modifications, like using Hi-Lo, that you can use to obtain you avarage advantage against the house and with that calculate your avarage EV.

  4. #17
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Not at all. There are rather a lot of variables and they all interact with one another.
    Last edited by Norm; 02-08-2019 at 12:29 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #18
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I think you’re looking for a table of numbers that you can use to determine the EV and SD given rules, penetration, and spread. CVCX has such tables. Altogether they take 121MB, compressed. And they are not values you can simply add together to get an answer. It takes several hundred thousand instructions or so to calculate the EV, SD, etc. from these tables. And that’s just the canned sims. If you want to add or remove any indices, alter how you calculate TC, alter deck estimation, add special rules, you’ll need to create a new set of numbers. And, that’s just CVCX. It can’t calculate the EV and SD for CVData functions, like cover betting, side bets, bonuses, rebates, and scores of other functional changes. BJ seems like a simple game – until you look under the covers.
    Last edited by Norm; 02-08-2019 at 12:52 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I think you’re looking for a table of numbers that you can use to determine the EV and SD given rules, penetration, and spread. CVCX has such tables. Altogether they take 121MB, compressed. And they are not values you can simply add together to get answer. It takes several hundred thousand instructions or so to calculate the EV, SD, etc. from these tables. And that’s just the canned sims. If you want to add or remove any indices, alter how you calculate TC, alter deck estimation, add special rules, you’ll need to create a new set of numbers. And, that’s just CVCX. It can’t calculate the EV and SD for CVData functions, like cover betting, side bets, bonuses, rebates, and scores of other functional changes. BJ seems like a simple game – until you look under the covers.
    That's why i love this game.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I think you’re looking for a table of numbers that you can use to determine the EV and SD given rules, penetration, and spread. CVCX has such tables. Altogether they take 121MB, compressed. And they are not values you can simply add together to get an answer. It takes several hundred thousand instructions or so to calculate the EV, SD, etc. from these tables. And that’s just the canned sims. If you want to add or remove any indices, alter how you calculate TC, alter deck estimation, add special rules, you’ll need to create a new set of numbers. And, that’s just CVCX. It can’t calculate the EV and SD for CVData functions, like cover betting, side bets, bonuses, rebates, and scores of other functional changes. BJ seems like a simple game – until you look under the covers.
    Yes thats exactly what i was looking for.

    I see. So if I get it right, I will have to abandon my idea of calculating an aproximated EV without CVCX or just geting it from some table on a book right? Cause in order to use such tables I would need to run some simulations anyway, is that correct?

    That´s really sad to hear. You either have CVCX or you can´t play knowing your risk of ruin. I knew there were a lot of variables, but I thought there was a way, even if it was not the most acurate.

    So if what I said was right, I just want to thank you for your patience and time Norm, if not correct me please.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by NG21 View Post
    Yes thats exactly what i was looking for.

    I see. So if I get it right, I will have to abandon my idea of calculating an aproximated EV without CVCX or just geting it from some table on a book right? Cause in order to use such tables I would need to run some simulations anyway, is that correct?

    That´s really sad to hear. You either have CVCX or you can´t play knowing your risk of ruin. I knew there were a lot of variables, but I thought there was a way, even if it was not the most acurate.

    So if what I said was right, I just want to thank you for your patience and time Norm, if not correct me please.
    You might buy a book or two that contain the information.

    Don

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You might buy a book or two that contain the information.

    Don
    Now I´m confused.

    Could you tell me some book titles that contain that info?

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by NG21 View Post
    Now I´m confused.

    Could you tell me some book titles that contain that info?
    Why are you confused? If you aren't going to get the software, which, to me, is indispensable, you will find hundreds of charts and tables in BJA3, for example.
    https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop...-the-pros-way/

    Don

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Why are you confused? If you aren't going to get the software, which, to me, is indispensable, you will find hundreds of charts and tables in BJA3, for example.
    https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop...-the-pros-way/

    Don
    Well, Norm told me I would need to use software and run some sims to use such tables, because of the high amount of variants. So I don't understand.

    Can I get for example an estimate EV and SD from a table on your book?

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by NG21 View Post
    Can I get for example an estimate EV and SD from a table on your book?
    How about from 140 tables?!

    Don

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