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Thread: On the issue of tournaments and counting.

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Question On the issue of tournaments and counting.

    I'm reviewing some material for a BJ tournament this Friday. Anyway, I was reading Ferguson's book on tournaments and he mentioned this:

    Italics and bold mine.

    Your Goal Is Within One Max Bet Of Your Bankroll

    Start out betting a proportion of your bankroll equal to your advantage. Most of the time this
    means betting the minimum. If you are counting cards and the count is so high (or the rules so
    liberal) that you have a 2% edge, then bet 2% of your bankroll or less. You might be able to drift
    into your goal without having to make a big bet. This happens frequently at tournaments where
    50% of the field advances to the next round.
    Followed by:

    If Your Goal Is One To Two Max Bets Above Your Bankroll

    You will not be able to drift up to your goal with minimum bets. So if you can count cards, bet
    the minimum on negative or zero counts and make a large bet on positive counts. If you do not
    count cards, then bet aggressively whenever you feel like it. You are going to have to make some
    big bets sometime.
    The big question is this. OK, get ready, here we go. I thought it was useless to count cards in a tournament! Such is the meme among BJ players. So what do you have to say on this issue?
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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Just found this too.

    If you are counting cards, split 10-10 at an index number one less than usual, which yields moresplits of 10-10. These plays increase your variance, and thus increase your chance of reaching your
    goal.
    Hmm.
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    It sounds like this advice is for accumulation tournaments, where a given percentage of the entire field advances. I will start by saying that counting can sometimes give you a minuscule extra advantage in certain situations depending on the format of the tournament. However the correct assessment of what the advancing threshold will be (your single most important task) and the use of the optimal strategy for these events (which is to simply bet enough to reach your goal (or the maximum) until you reach your goal or bust out) trump that tiny extra advantage by several orders of magnitude. Remember that the count does not affect the percentage of hands that you will win/lose/push all that much.

    The nice thing about the optimal strategy is that it is self adjusting. If you have determined that the goal is a small session win compared to the maximum bet, then you will find yourself betting just enough to reach your goal at the start and doubling your bet with each loss until you reach the maximum. In effect you will find yourself playing the Martingale with a very high chance of succeeding in reaching your goal.

    If your goal is higher than winning a max bet, or if becomes that way because your initial Martingale failed and you must now bet more than the max, then you should always start pushing out max bets right away regardless of the count. You want to generate big variance in a very short period of time. Typically you only have a small number of rounds in which to reach your goal. Betting too small is the same as reducing that number of rounds. The last thing you want is to get stuck in a win/lose cycle and run out of rounds to play.

    Once you reach your goal, you bet minimum until the end of the round or until you fall below your goal again.

    With respect to his specific advice, if the goal is so low that you can "drift into it without making a large bet", I disagree. Your probability of winning X amount is higher by betting it all on one hand than it is by needing to be up at some point by more than one bet. Use the optimal strategy.

    With respect to "betting aggressively whenever you feel like it", I also disagree. Use the optimal strategy and bet max right away. Waiting only reduces the number of rounds you have available to reach your goal.

    Finally, for table-advance formats, counting is truly almost useless. Strategic betting based on the evolving situation at the table once again trumps counting by several orders of magnitude. I use counting in these events only to identify other counters. This helps me to predict what they might bet should they be betting after me.
    Last edited by Gronbog; 01-29-2019 at 09:42 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    Just found this too.

    If you are counting cards, split 10-10 at an index number one less than usual, which yields moresplits of 10-10. These plays increase your variance, and thus increase your chance of reaching your
    goal.
    Hmm.
    If you're in a situation where you have bet just enough to reach your goal, then never double and only make certain splits. If you don't know what those splits are, then don't split. Your goal in this situation is to win the hand, not to maximize your EV. The optimal strategy to have the highest probability for a net win is discussed here:

    https://www.blackjacktournaments.com...-one-bet.8201/

    If you're in a situation where you are betting max, and the goal is more than 2 max bets away, you should make all +EV doubles, and all splits which result in a net win higher percentage of the time than not splitting, regardless of the count. See the thread linked above for those splits.

    Also, read Ken Smith's second e-book where he shows that you are more likely to win just about any double down or split than you are to win 2 hands in a row. Consider this with time running out at the end of the round and your goal more than a max bet away.
    Last edited by Gronbog; 01-29-2019 at 09:37 AM.

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    The first one I posted was about competing against players at other tables. The think the second was some of the players advance to the next level.

    I understand, as you, about the minuscule advantage in certain situations. But Wong seems to make it a bigger deal than it supposedly is.

    ETA: What situations are those?
    Last edited by BigJer; 01-29-2019 at 09:53 AM.
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    Wong did his research a long time ago with limited computer resources.

    The point is that the correct strategic bets at the right time win the day and that the right time is determined by the situation and not by the count.

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Just kidding when I say this! You're referencing yourself! Which meas there is circular logic going on.

    Let me read the material over from the link.

    Anyways, I don't doubt you on it.
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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Wong did his research a long time ago with limited computer resources.

    The point is that the correct strategic bets at the right time win the day and that the right time is determined by the situation and not by the count.
    The publishing date I have is from 2011.
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    Yes, but the research was done many years before that.

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Yes, but the research was done many years before that.
    Why wouldn't have Ferguson updated it?

    I will be buying Ken Smith's book after I read Ferguson's.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    Why wouldn't have Ferguson updated it?

    I will be buying Ken Smith's book after I read Ferguson's.
    There is a lot of misinformation out there when it comes to gambling in general. Some of it is well-intentioned but still incorrect. Some authors don't update their material once it's published. I've actually never heard of Furgson, so I can't say.

    Buy both of Ken's e-books. Well worth the investment if you plan on playing tournaments regularly.

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    There is a lot of misinformation out there when it comes to gambling in general. Some of it is well-intentioned but still incorrect. Some authors don't update their material once it's published. I've actually never heard of Furgson, so I can't say.
    Stanford Wong's real name.

    Buy both of Ken's e-books. Well worth the investment if you plan on playing tournaments regularly.
    Didn't realize he had two books in the topic.
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    I played in several blackjack tournaments in 2018. I only advanced to the final money table in one of them. I also did a quick study of Wong's book on tournaments, but don't know if it helped all that much. Funny thing I did real good in the qualifying rounds, but not so good on the final table. However, my tournaments were free and they offered decent money to those that made it to the money table so can't complain.

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