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Thread: what are the odds...

  1. #1


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    what are the odds...

    that in over 100 8-deck shoes with ~50% pen, about 80% of them will have a TC of +1.5 or higher sometime before the cut card (and rarely come down)? I guess the odds are higher with bad pen, because there's a greater chance high cards won't come out before the cut card. But still, such a high percentage seems strange.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    that in over 100 8-deck shoes with ~50% pen, about 80% of them will have a TC of +1.5 or higher sometime before the cut card (and rarely come down)? I guess the odds are higher with bad pen, because there's a greater chance high cards won't come out before the cut card. But still, such a high percentage seems strange.
    I believe their maybe some comments coming regarding beast mode. However, the real question that begs to be asked - why play an 8 deck shoe with 50% pen?

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I believe their maybe some comments coming regarding beast mode. However, the real question that begs to be asked - why play an 8 deck shoe with 50% pen?
    I believe this is in regards to some online casino competition where whoever wagers the most gets some sort of bonus, hence playing the crappy game

  4. #4


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    What are the odds that some Ts and As were replaced with some 5s and 6s?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    What are the odds that some Ts and As were replaced with some 5s and 6s?
    Might be an idea to edit

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    I believe this is in regards to some online casino competition where whoever wagers the most gets some sort of bonus, hence playing the crappy game
    Correct. Saw my other post? It is online, but actually, the game is far from crappy (for a BS player), as they offer ESA - however, that's if it's a FAIR game. If there's something wonky going on, which I have no choice but to suspect at this point - as the large percentage of high counts has occurred during the last days of both of their wagering competitions (this month and one a few months back) - then my calculation of my expected loss will be way off.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Might be an idea to edit
    Haha, yeah, that'd be a strip club I'd never visit (unless maybe you're into zaftig ladies)
    Last edited by cottage cheese; 08-31-2019 at 02:36 PM.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    What are the odds that some Ts and As were replaced with some 5s and 6s?
    Of course, the thought has crossed my mind, but this is a supposedly reputable casino. I think they change cards once a day, but I'm not sure players can watch.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    Correct. Saw my other post? It is online, but actually, the game is far from crappy (for a BS player), as they offer ESA - however, that's if it's a FAIR game. If there's something wonky going on, which I have no choice but to suspect at this point - as the large percentage of high counts has occurred during the last days of both of their wagering competitions (this month and one a few months back) - then my calculation of my expected loss will be way off.



    Haha, yeah, that'd be a strip club I'd never visit (unless maybe you're into zaftig ladies)
    I did see your other post. And just off of what I've heard, I'd be wary... Sure, go for the competition, but not if it requires wagering anything that gets your expected loss in the ballpark of the prize you'd get, especially if something fishy is going on. Which it seems may be the case.

  9. #9


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    To be safe, if it was me, I'd maybe add to the house advantage however much you suspect they have cooked it in their favour, THEN wager your expected loss up to the amount of the prize.

    Of course I just have limited info

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    100 shoes? Insufficient sample size to draw statistically valid conclusions.
    Fully agreed. You could run a statistical test to calculate the probability of this happening due to random chance over your sample. Nonetheless I'd still exercise caution when suspecting something fishy and my own money at stake

  11. #11


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    Haven't run the numbers (probably won't, but if I'm interested perhaps I'll try later a jimmy-rigged sim), but to me...out of 100 shoes of 8D 50% pen and 80% of them going to +1.5 TC (HiLo) seems rather suspicious to me. At the very least if I were in that situation, I would take a break from the game and try to figure out how likely/unlikely that is. Possibly re-evaluate my counting skills if that's a possible issue.

    Even "reputable" online casinos have gaffed games, at least offshore (non-USA) casinos.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I believe their maybe some comments coming regarding beast mode. However, the real question that begs to be asked - why play an 8 deck shoe with 50% pen?
    +100 is that the best game you can find near you? Not good.
    Uggg I just saw you said this is an online game...seriously? You think that is a fair game? And even so it's an 8 deck game with 50% pen...before they even cheat you?

  13. #13


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    I did my jimmy-rigged "simulation" in Excel of 100 shoes. Not great, but that's all I have access to right now. 8 deck shoe, calculated TC after every card dealt w/o rounding, and dealt to 223 cards. 223 being half of 8 decks (416/2) plus 15 cards for a round played after cut card. TC was calculated as RC/(Cards_Remaining/52). Not conclusive in any way by any means, but only 46 of those 100 shoes got to TC +1.5 or higher. I just did 100 more shoes and 48 of them went to +1.5 or higher.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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