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Thread: Odd observation - Playing PS = losing more when count high

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    BoSox, be careful on any ice. Old man winter finally did me in. I fell last week on ice and cracked my rib. It hurts like hell when I try to get in or out of bed. The only position I can sleep in is flat on my back. I went to my doctor and he thought the x-ray showed no break, but the next day the doctor called back after the radiologist reviewed the x-ray. The radiologist thinks there is probably a slight fracture.

    I was all set to go out there and do some yopper scooping this weekend, but decided to put it off for a few more days since I found out about the possible fracture.
    Midwest Player, Thank you for the tip. Sorry to hear about your fall. I am not sure what step I should currently do, get the snow off the driveway, while it is sleeting and freezing rain all day, or wait for tomorrow when the wind chill hits -15. Either way, it is a bad choice, I have plenty of rock salt but am short on sand supply to spread around. I wish you well and take it easy as you do not want to make it worse.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    BoSox, be careful on any ice. Old man winter finally did me in. I fell last week on ice and cracked my rib. It hurts like hell when I try to get in or out of bed. The only position I can sleep in is flat on my back. I went to my doctor and he thought the x-ray showed no break, but the next day the doctor called back after the radiologist reviewed the x-ray. The radiologist thinks there is probably a slight fracture.

    I was all set to go out there and do some yopper scooping this weekend, but decided to put it off for a few more days since I found out about the possible fracture.
    MWP - Do you own something like these?
    https://www.llbean.com/llb/shop/1213...now%20sneakers

  3. #29


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    MWP
    My daughter uses these "shoe chains" and they work very well:

    https://www.amazon.com/WEANAS-Multi-...3M9ZBT0EDCEXKB

    If the link above doesn't work, search on "shoe chains"

    Best,
    SiMi

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    That is exacty what I wrote, and we both know that is correct. Now, where the discrepancy lies is the issue, regardless of count, are those hands where we fail to double, catch a crap card where we would not be allowed to take another card after doubling, and where can take another card because a double was not made.

    So, for example, not doubling 10v8, catching a 3, allows us to improve our hand and hit again. Now, there is a further issue of semantics, but I dont think it necessary to confuse the shit out of everybody,
    You're going to get exhausted back-pedaling! Just drop it. What you wrote the first time was correct; then you wrote that it was wrong, and that we should look for the error; then I wrote that, no, it was right! Then YOU wrote, above, that we both know it is correct! Do you see how ridiculous you're looking?

    Don

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    BoSox, be careful on any ice. Old man winter finally did me in. I fell last week on ice and cracked my rib. It hurts like hell when I try to get in or out of bed. The only position I can sleep in is flat on my back. I went to my doctor and he thought the x-ray showed no break, but the next day the doctor called back after the radiologist reviewed the x-ray. The radiologist thinks there is probably a slight fracture.

    I was all set to go out there and do some yopper scooping this weekend, but decided to put it off for a few more days since I found out about the possible fracture.
    Midwest Player,

    I'm sorry to hear that you possibly cracked a rib by falling. I hope you recover quickly, so that Mrs. MWP doesn't have to do all the shovelling by herself! ????

    Seriously, though, take care of yourself so you don't aggravate that injury.

    Dog Hand

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You're going to get exhausted back-pedaling! Just drop it. What you wrote the first time was correct; then you wrote that it was wrong, and that we should look for the error; then I wrote that, no, it was right! Then YOU wrote, above, that we both know it is correct! Do you see how ridiculous you're looking?

    Don
    Was it not John Paul Jones, whom, in 1779, uttered those immortal words - I have not yet begun to breathe.
    Unfortunately, your interpetations are incorrect. Allow me to explain.

    We both totally agree on post 2. I think my post 14, is articulated poorly, thus resulting in that phenomenon known as -The Schlesinger Paradox - accordingly resulting in your confusion. Simply stated, post 14 simply addresses a situation, created by non optimal play. The non optimal play creates a scenario, where the offender of said non optimal play, has the opportunity to improve his hand after his first hit, which caught air thus resulting in a higher loss ratio had the optimal double been excercised in the first place. Therefore, said non optimal play results in a lesser loss rate per 100 hands than optimal play.

    Said scenario does not address EV, which is maximized by the optimal double. Clear?

  7. #33


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    You're just making it up as you go along. Nothing whatsoever in your original posts mentioned "non-optimal play."

    Your premise was that doubles and splits won more frequently in higher counts. Then, you invited us to "find your error" in making that statement. I pointed out that there wasn't any error. All the posts are there for anyone to read.

    Feel free to have the last word. I'm done. It's axiomatic that, for most doubles, no matter what the count, you can win more HANDS by not doubling and having the option to draw more than one card. That was NOT the discussion, however.

    Don

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    It's axiomatic that, for most doubles, no matter what the count, you can win more HANDS by not doubling and having the option to draw more than one card. That was NOT the discussion, however.

    Don
    It was absolutely inferred. You simply chose, and continue to choose, not to see it.

  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    It's axiomatic that, for most doubles, no matter what the count, you can win more HANDS by not doubling and having the option to draw more than one card.
    This is only true if you would take another card for some card you could get on a hit. If you take one card no matter what card you get it isn't true.

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Midwest Player, Thank you for the tip. Sorry to hear about your fall. I am not sure what step I should currently do, get the snow off the driveway, while it is sleeting and freezing rain all day, or wait for tomorrow when the wind chill hits -15. Either way, it is a bad choice, I have plenty of rock salt but am short on sand supply to spread around. I wish you well and take it easy as you do not want to make it worse.
    Rock salt does not work good in real cold temps. If it isn't to cold yet, I would put the rock salt on before it gets too cold like when still sleeting. I actually slipped when I was putting some dirt (potting soil) on the driveway. I had my rubber boots on, but didn't have my coat on so no cushion at all when I went down. My glasses dug into my face and gave me a nasty cut, but all the damage was on my side.

    I called our Walmart to see if they had sand and they did, but the bags weighted 60 lbs. I was in no shape to be lifting 60 lb bags of sand. Fortunately for me, I have a great snow plower who offered to sand my driveway. He put a mixture of salt and sand down. I told him to bill me for the extra work.

  11. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I called our Walmart to see if they had sand and they did, but the bags weighted 60 lbs. I was in no shape to be lifting 60 lb bags of sand. Fortunately for me, I have a great snow plower who offered to sand my driveway. He put a mixture of salt and sand down. I told him to bill me for the extra work.
    This reminds me of a funny story. When I was living at the beach for years, one winter we had three record snows on three weeks in a row. Each breaking the previous weeks record. Now a record snow was about a foot. It melts pretty quick from the salt air so there wasn't much left when the next storm hit. On the last one I drove my VW bug to the grocery store in case I was stuck for a while. I only shopped for a few items but when I left the snow was getting pretty deep. It was almost 6 inches. Anyway I lived next to a high condo in a short house on stilts about 6 blocks away. When I got to the condo the way the wind swept around it during the Noreaster made a giant drift. Just past the drift the road was bare. My bug got stuck and was quickly becoming a snow dune in the drift. I knew the plow would clobber it if one ever came by. It was the main street north and south up and down the coast, but I don't think they really had a snow removal plan. We couldn't push it out either way. I was frustrated and started thinking if I was only back were I grew up I would put some sand in the tires and I would be out of there in no time. After what took way too long I realized I was stuck on a giant sand bar. I could get sand anywhere and everywhere. Needless to say it didn't take long to get my bug free. It only took about a minute to figure out sand was everywhere, but it should have taken a second. Duh. LoL

  12. #38


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    BoSox, you aren't the only one with cold temps. Wife says her asthma acts up when it is this cold so tomorrow I will be going out to shovel for first time since I fell. The cold air makes me cough so will have to see how it goes. Here is temperature forecast for tonight.

    Until 2:15am EST, Mon Jan 21
    Action Recommended: Avoid the subject event as per the instructions
    Issued by: Marquette - MI, US, National Weather Service,

    ...BITTER COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... Once lake effect snow showers off Lake Superior diminish overnight, expect clearing skies and light winds to result in plummeting temperatures. Low temperatures will drop to around 20 below zero inland with typical cold spots dropping to around 30 below zero. Temperatures will be slightly warmer along the Great Lakes shorelines, but still could fall well below zero, especially near Lake Michigan. Though winds will be calm tonight, the winds will increase on Monday morning which could result in at least a couple hours of dangerously low wind chills around 25 below zero. Be sure to dress in loose fitting layers and wear a hat and mittens or gloves. When temperatures are this low, frostbite can occur in less than 30 minutes on exposed skin.
    Last edited by Midwest Player; 01-20-2019 at 10:15 PM.

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