What am I doing wrong?

[Three]

I'm on an 852 hour break even streak counting cards. I'm 620 hours away from my last all time high at earnings from counting. In the 620 hours I'm down nearly 50k. I started counting in 2002 and after 5 or 6 years I didn't think it was possible for ME to have a 200 hour losing streak. I'm very selective about the games I play and even though I've been at this for nearly 20 years I still practice and test myself on CVBJ nearly everyday. My max bet is typically 2x600 although I will bet more than that in very positive counts (where the casino will tolerate that), so 50k isn't that big of a deal but the point is these losing streaks can go on for an extended period. I have two close friends that are struggling with CC as well. One is losing over his last 900 hours the other is at about 600 I think. Both of these guys are pretty well known and very competent. Had my CC career started out like it has over these last 600 hours there is no way I'd still be counting cards.

Maybe my results ARE markedly different than others. I never had anything like this. I had a theory that complicated approaches see fewer and shorter lived long term downswings. But you still get really severe short term downswings but judging from my results you don't see these kinds of long sustained downswings described in the quote. I typically see steep gain way above EV. The rest of the time lowers overall results to expected EV. They consist of somewhat long periods of spinning wheels with no sustained gain or loss, less often short lived steep downswings, and rarely the latter stacking up to be more severe downswings. But in the long run there isn't much difference in the destination between complicated and simple approaches. There is just differences in how many rounds it takes to get to the long run and how wide you stray from expectation getting to the long run. So I see complexity as more of a preference rather than being better. There are trade offs made for simplicity. Some prefer to make these trade offs while others choose not to. It is just a matter of preference.

[BoSox]

That is because in the long run everything does work out if you are doing things right.

The funny thing is I was averaging 5 figures a month that year. This downswing lasted about 6 weeks and spanned two calendar months. I still won 5 figures in both calendar months.

You were not talking about the long run in the above quote. By the way that was a great example, you gave to help someone on a losing streak.

[Three]

You were not talking about the long run in the above quote. By the way that was a great example, you gave to help someone on a losing streak.

I think it put the losing run in perspective with surrounding results. The point is you will have losing runs like this on the way to the long run. In his other thread I gave further advice on ow to improve casino results.

[BJGenius007]

I have been counting cards for about 16 months now, the first year was not bad, I use The Knockout system for double deck, 55% pen DAS. My spread is $25 to $250 at +4 max bet. According to CVCX my hourly should be $100 per 160 rounds (i only play heads up). Since November I have been losing like crazy, my bankroll was 40K, in November I lost 3K, in December I lost 12K, and so far in the past 3 days I have lost 8K.. i figured i am doing something wrong so i bought casino Verite and my play is perfect. It is extremely devastating for me to keep losing every day like this, I even tried changing casinos, changing tables, no matter where I go it is the worst cards I've ever seen in my life ... I have only played for about 8 hours in the past 3 days but still losing 8k. I am at a 23k at downswing in the past three months, and I've only played for about 150 hours and that 3-month period. This is really demoralizing, and is really affecting me, I am tempted to just quit because I don't know if I can handle feeling this way, the last year I went through downswings to like everybody else, but nothing like this... I am losing one or two thousand every single day, before I would still lose but not like this, I got used to losing a few thousand dollars at a time once in a while, but I am not used to losing every day like this... Does anyone have any similar stories to share with me so I know that I am not alone in this situation? Because even Cvcx shows that my results are about 0.2% probability.


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If this continues for three more months, either you got cursed or the casino owner got wise and paid ASM manufacture the beast mode firmware upgrade. Right now could you find a casino hand-shuffled cards to confirm it is not your skill problem? If you cannot find a hand-shuffled game, try to play ASM on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (non-holiday). Many have reported that beast mode only got turned on during weekends and holidays to make the casinos the most money.

[Bigdaddy]

You more than likely aren't doing anything wrong, bad swings happen. Here is a post I made just a couple days ago, I wasn't sure how to link to it. Hopefully this will make you feel a little better about your skills, but probably won't make you feel better about the prospects of counting cards. I know another very good pro counter (besides the two mentioned below) that figures he had about 1,000 hours of losing before things turned around.

I'm on an 852 hour break even streak counting cards. I'm 620 hours away from my last all time high at earnings from counting. In the 620 hours I'm down nearly 50k. I started counting in 2002 and after 5 or 6 years I didn't think it was possible for ME to have a 200 hour losing streak. I'm very selective about the games I play and even though I've been at this for nearly 20 years I still practice and test myself on CVBJ nearly everyday. My max bet is typically 2x600 although I will bet more than that in very positive counts (where the casino will tolerate that), so 50k isn't that big of a deal but the point is these losing streaks can go on for an extended period. I have two close friends that are struggling with CC as well. One is losing over his last 900 hours the other is at about 600 I think. Both of these guys are pretty well known and very competent. Had my CC career started out like it has over these last 600 hours there is no way I'd still be counting cards.

Many people I know no longer count cards because there are easier ways to make money in the casino. I do it because I like the mental exercise. I'm very fortunate to have been able to make a lot more money over the years playing other games or promotions. Counting is something I do when there isn't anything better and lately I've been doing a lot of counting.

Good post - helps bring the game into proper perspective. I've had similar prolonged downswings. I'm still not back to my all time high after 200 hours or so. Brings to mind the quote by James Grosjean about card counting: "Newsflash - a 1% advantage - not a big advantage!."

[Jabberwocky]

So the sad part is now, after the last three hundred hours I am at break even.. all of the counters I know in real life I have tried to talk to you about this, and none of them have experienced downswings is this bad...

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You are that unenviable 1%, sorry but someone's got to be the goat and it's your turn. I've already had my turn.

[BoSox]

"

The funny thing is I was averaging 5 figures a month that year. This downswing lasted about 6 weeks and spanned two calendar months. I still won 5 figures in both calendar months."

By the way that was a great example, you gave to help someone on a losing streak.

I think it put the losing run in perspective with surrounding results.

At least I now know using sarcasm does not work well with you, I won't make that mistake again.

[21forme]

or the casino owner got wise and paid ASM manufacture the beast mode firmware upgrade.

The sad thing here is you're not joking.

[stopgambling]

just like dragon7 which has a higher edge but very high variance . Score is low for those bet. So what if it is a 9% edge ( what it is exactly i never really bothered to know), the variance will destroy your bankroll if you don't play enough or you don't have a big enough bankroll.