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Thread: Can anyone explain this to me?

  1. #53


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    So what RCJH is saying is they have skills that go above counting? They have skills that allow them “to get away with it”. I just wanted to make sure that’s what he was referring to. It wasn’t clear from his post.
    Yes, and then some. They know HILo and many, many indices. (As I am not an expert on HiLo, I don't want to say all or give a number). But they certainly know more than 30, or maybe even 40.

    They can do half and quarter deck estimation, and are therefore able to use the indices more accurately.

    And the big yes, they have skills to get away with it.

  2. #54


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    Quote Originally Posted by RCJH View Post
    Yes, and then some. They know HILo and many, many indices. (As I am not an expert on HiLo, I don't want to say all or give a number). But they certainly know more than 30, or maybe even 40.

    They can do half and quarter deck estimation, and are therefore able to use the indices more accurately.

    And the big yes, they have skills to get away with it.
    RCJH, thanks for the reply. That helps. I agree with trying to take Hilo as far as you can. I know about 75 indexes. The problem is I haven’t used most of them. Surprise, surprise, the ones Don said are the most important are the most important. Lol.

    When I coach people on Hilo I tell them to not waste too much time learning more than I18 indexes. I tell them they’d be better off spreading more or earring more money for their bankroll.

    As far as “getting away with it”, it’s good to hear they’ve learned this is important. In general, I’ve seen the BJA group teaching a blasting away strategy and not worrying about or fearing backoffs. I’ve always been more in the camp of playing for longevity so I don’t lose my local stores. This strategy also has helped me when I play at casinos that aren’t my local ones. I know there’s no right answer in the debate between the two strategies - longevity vs blasting away and maximizing earrings.

  3. #55


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    As far as “getting away with it”, it’s good to hear they’ve learned this is important. In general, I’ve seen the BJA group teaching a blasting away strategy and not worrying about or fearing backoffs. I’ve always been more in the camp of playing for longevity so I don’t lose my local stores. This strategy also has helped me when I play at casinos that aren’t my local ones. I know there’s no right answer in the debate between the two strategies - longevity vs blasting away and maximizing earrings.[/QUOTE]

    As far as blasting away goes, what exactly is it? I started the post thinking that a spread of 1-24 IS blasting away. I thought folks on this forum would say that a spread of 1-24 on DD games will lead to quick back offs. Folks on BJA think a $25-$150 spread in DD games is way too low. It's why I tittled the thread as "underbetting in Las Vegas" because it's a spread I use.

    Much to my surprise no one has come out and said a 1-24 spread will not work in Law Vegas, most seem to say that such a spread is no big deal. So does "blasting away" mean going to table max or is there a spread beyond which it becomes "blasting away"?7.

  4. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    RCJH, when you say the “the very best counters”, what do you mean by that? The math is the math. If someone is using Hilo and playing it perfectly, how are you able to detect differences between two people who use the same system.
    Obviously you haven't learned what they teach you in the class.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    I’ve heard these kind of comments before and never understood them.
    Take the class. If you don't understand then, there is no hope for you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    If you’re referring to their skills on “getting away with it”
    It's about discretion or judgement.

    Anyone can do the math of counting and count perfectly. Knowing how to make money doing that in a casino is a different story. The casino isn't a simulator. You can't bounce right to results of having played 1 billion rounds. The sim uses averages for everything. A good casino player makes choices in a casino and choose to play better pen, faster dealers, dealers that help you win, avoid negative EV rounds as much as practical, and up the chances of finding positive EV shoes. A poor player plops down anywhere and ends up playing much the opposite, unless they get lucky by chance. The result is the poor player plays fewer rounds while playing more time. More important fewer high EV rounds and a higher percentage of negative EV rounds. The advantage per shoe is less for the poor player. The poor judgement of the poor casino player costs him constantly the entire time he is there. Plus his spread is getting exposed more due to needing to make a higher percentage of minimum bets. In a casino, there is your spread, and what they perceive your spread to be. A poor player would always be seen as using his total spread. This is not necessarily true for a good player. The big bets you make draw attention. But the small bets you make get you backed off after drawing that attention.

    RCJH is saying you and a course graduate go into a casino and play for 4 hours. The course graduate would leave with a higher total EV from the judgements each of you made while in the casino for the same amount of time using the exact same system probably by playing less of the time, and/or getting in a lot more plus EV rounds while playing through a lot less negative EV rounds.

  5. #57


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    When I coach people on Hilo I tell them to not waste too much time learning more than I18 indexes. I tell them they’d be better off spreading more or earring more money for their bankroll.
    A few thoughts... you seem to have missed the whole deck estimation thing (can you do half and quarter deck estimation, and compute the TC accurately? Do you know the correct insurance index for single deck, and how to calculate it?) They are well versed in the different indices for different games, and are highly skilled players who can play whatever game is offered.

    Knowing more indices allows them to generate EV with a smaller spread. You advise people to spread MORE? That could be terrible advice. Do you also teach them about the higher variance incurred with a higher spread, nad how that affects their RoR? Also a bigger spread is more noticeable and generates more heat.

    Second, I took a break from this forum because I couldn't handle the trolls. I have a job, a family, and this is either my hobby or side gig, depending upon the day. You and your bestie Z are either the most dense people alive, or just have an insatiable need for attention. You read what you want and ignore the rest. For a recreational player like you, the ILL18 is probably fine, but THIS THREAD ISNT ABOUT YOU. It WAS about the value of $3K on a class or seminar, and I am saying that the alumni I've met are impressive players with a wide skill set.

    So Dbs, moving forward you get one and only one reply from me. I'm sure you'll respond to this, (and Z will too...) but I won't reply, so take the last word. In future threads, you get one reply only. I will not waste my time feeding trolls.

  6. #58


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    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Obviously you haven't learned what they teach you in the class.

    Take the class. If you don't understand then, there is no hope for you.

    It's about discretion or judgement.

    Anyone can do the math of counting and count perfectly. Knowing how to make money doing that in a casino is a different story. The casino isn't a simulator. You can't bounce right to results of having played 1 billion rounds. The sim uses averages for everything. A good casino player makes choices in a casino and choose to play better pen, faster dealers, dealers that help you win, avoid negative EV rounds as much as practical, and up the chances of finding positive EV shoes. A poor player plops down anywhere and ends up playing much the opposite, unless they get lucky by chance. The result is the poor player plays fewer rounds while playing more time. More important fewer high EV rounds and a higher percentage of negative EV rounds. The advantage per shoe is less for the poor player. The poor judgement of the poor casino player costs him constantly the entire time he is there. Plus his spread is getting exposed more due to needing to make a higher percentage of minimum bets. In a casino, there is your spread, and what they perceive your spread to be. A poor player would always be seen as using his total spread. This is not necessarily true for a good player. The big bets you make draw attention. But the small bets you make get you backed off after drawing that attention.

    RCJH is saying you and a course graduate go into a casino and play for 4 hours. The course graduate would leave with a higher total EV from the judgements each of you made while in the casino for the same amount of time using the exact same system probably by playing less of the time, and/or getting in a lot more plus EV rounds while playing through a lot less negative EV rounds.
    Three, have you ever read a book on blackjack? I encourage you to pick one up...two good ones are BJA3 and Blackbelt in Blackjack. All the advice you gave in your post is in these two books. You can actually find it in almost any good blackjack book.

    What we’re debating is do you need to spend $3,000 in a two day course to learn these things. We aren’t debating that you need to learn these things to be a good counter. As some have said in this thread, some do and some don’t. People who have difficulty learning through reading probably should take this course. People who are good readers don’t need to take this course. You appear to be a talented reader since you’ve learned all this stuff without taking the course. I haven’t taken the course and I’ve learned all this stuff too. That must mean I’m a good reader too. Lol.

    I also believe in positive EV plays and I (along with several others here) don’t believe it’s a positive EV play to spend $3,000 to learn things that can be easily learned in a book, or through inexpensive software like Norm’s. Btw, I have Norm’s software too and use it to practice to make sure my game is perfect.

    Have you read any of my posts? I know “how to get away with it.” I’ve been playing at my local casinos for 12 years and still haven’t got kicked out. Well, I got kicked out of two of them early on but then bought a bunch of blackjack books and “learned how to get away with it”. One of the keys is to rathole so the casinos don’t see you as a winner. I wonder if ratholing is taught in this course? That’s a special skill that many don’t know. It’s taught in several books.

    One last comment. Do you know what’s taught by the BJA group? Please go back and listen to the Joe GWAE podcast. They don’t believe in using any playing or betting cover. Joe even splits 10. I don’t think what you mentioned in this post is advice given in the course. I could be wrong since I haven’t taken the course, but I know their basic philosophy when it comes to AP blackjack is to spread big with no cover and don’t fear backoffs...there’s always another casino to play at. Since I don’t want to travel long distances to play bj, I don’t adhere to this philosophy.

  7. #59


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Much to my surprise no one has come out and said a 1-24 spread will not work in Law Vegas,
    It's a moot point because it's been said hundreds of times before - Don't play DD in Vegas.

    It's like "don't play rated." It works until it doesn't.

  8. #60


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RCJH View Post
    A few thoughts... you seem to have missed the whole deck estimation thing (can you do half and quarter deck estimation, and compute the TC accurately? Do you know the correct insurance index for single deck, and how to calculate it?) They are well versed in the different indices for different games, and are highly skilled players who can play whatever game is offered.

    Knowing more indices allows them to generate EV with a smaller spread. You advise people to spread MORE? That could be terrible advice. Do you also teach them about the higher variance incurred with a higher spread, nad how that affects their RoR? Also a bigger spread is more noticeable and generates more heat.

    Second, I took a break from this forum because I couldn't handle the trolls. I have a job, a family, and this is either my hobby or side gig, depending upon the day. You and your bestie Z are either the most dense people alive, or just have an insatiable need for attention. You read what you want and ignore the rest. For a recreational player like you, the ILL18 is probably fine, but THIS THREAD ISNT ABOUT YOU. It WAS about the value of $3K on a class or seminar, and I am saying that the alumni I've met are impressive players with a wide skill set.

    So Dbs, moving forward you get one and only one reply from me. I'm sure you'll respond to this, (and Z will too...) but I won't reply, so take the last word. In future threads, you get one reply only. I will not waste my time feeding trolls.
    RCJR, you appear to pick and choose what you respond to in my posts. I never attacked you. I didn’t disagree with you. I asked you a question and you answered it, and I thanked you for your reply. How is that trolling?

    As far as if I’m able to do all the things you mentioned, the answer is yes. I learned those things through books and software. I play quite a bit single deck so I know this game well. Btw, it is not that hard to know the insurance index for single, double and six deck. This is easily found in books and the internet. You don’t need to spend $3,000 to learn this.

    Reread some of my posts in this thread. I said this class probably makes sence for some people. Everybody is entitled to spend their money the way they want. If this course made the two counters you know better then it was well worth it for them. I never said anything against these people for taking the course.

    Where did did you pick up that I advised to spread MORE. That’s the opposite of what I advise. It’s what the BJA group advise. This is one their many teachings....spread big with no cover and don’t worry about backoffs. If the two people you’re playing with are playing with cover and not spreading big then they aren’t following the BJA philosophy.

    I was not the one who started this post. It was started because people were shocked someone would charge $3000 to teach a course on Hilo. As I’m sure you know, there are less expensive ways to learn this system and all the nuances to become a good counter. I’m sure this is not the type of publicity the BJA wants for this course..but they got it because of their price. While they have found people who will pay this amount, I think they need to be a little careful going forward. There is a fine line in being seen as helping the AP community and taking advantage of it. Changing $3,000 for a two day course on Hilo comes very close to being seen as taking advantage of it.

  9. #61


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    It was started because people were shocked someone would charge $3000 to teach a course on Hilo.......Changing $3,000 for a two day course on Hilo comes very close to being seen as taking advantage of it.
    Saying stuff like that is what makes it seem like you still really don't know what is being taught during the course. To be honest, I don't know for sure what's being taught there either, because I haven't been. But the website lists other things they teach, which is the most important part of being a successful card counter. Maybe networking is more important, though. But they got that, too.

    Yeah, there's lots you can learn from books or online. But lots of books have dated information. Not everything you read on forums is accurate. It depends on someone's personal circumstances as to whether some advice online is good and applicable to them whereas other times it's not. And of course, you don't learn the proper 'protocol' and other real-world stuff from a book or online.


    I don't know how aggressive or whatever BJA is about marketing their bootcamps. I didn't see any notices or whatever on their site about real-world expectations. Maybe I missed it. But I'd like to see something like, "Card counting isn't a guarantee win. It takes many hours of learning and practice to be sufficient. It's a wild ride and <briefly explain variance stuff, bankroll necessity, EV, etc.>. Before attending the boot-camp, you should better familiarize yourself with basic strategy and how card counting works in general. This isn't something that everyone is cut out to do, so you might be better off to realize you don't want to do it before you put $3,000 into it" or something sorta like that.


    As far as spreading huge and fading the back offs, IMO, that's probably the right way to go about it, for anyone who's serious about making money. Obviously that's not going to be a great approach for a hobbyist, but (maybe I'm wrong) I don't feel like many potential hobbyists are going to fork over $3k for this boot-camp. Of the card counters I do know, it seems like the most successful are the ones who spread to the moon, take the backoffs with grace, and move on to the next casino. I think many card counters likely under-bet and aren't aggressive enough. They want to just stay put, have some camouflage, and fear backoffs. That's not necessarily a terrible strategy (everyone's in a different circumstance), but having a higher maximum bet or ramping a bit more aggressively is probably not going to have a huge impact on when you get backed off....but it does or can have a big impact on EV.


    I will say, though, the thing I don't particularly like about the boot-camps and stuff is to me it seems pretty sellout'ish. Maybe I'm just a greedy asshole, but much of what we do is kept secretive....and for good reason. Although the cat is out of the bag for card counting, I'd hate for a seminar like this to be done for other more advanced AP techniques, since that just breeds more competition....which means plays are going to get burnt out quicker. Some say it's better for more people to get a slice of the pie, I don't really like that idea, because to me, it seems like the more APs on a play, it'll get burnt out even faster and thus everyone is not just sharing an entire pie, but a smaller portion of the pie. EG: There's a story about a casino that had a promo where you push on all 13's, or something like that. No one got a piece of that pie because they cancelled it before it started. But if there was only a handful of APs there, the casino (likely) wouldn't have caught on for a while or maybe even at all, and they would have absolutely crushed the play. The same applies to card counting -- more people trying to get a piece of the pie means everywhere will have to share a smaller amount of total pie available.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  10. #62


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Saying stuff like that is what makes it seem like you still really don't know what is being taught during the course. To be honest, I don't know for sure what's being taught there either, because I haven't been. But the website lists other things they teach, which is the most important part of being a successful card counter. Maybe networking is more important, though. But they got that, too.

    Yeah, there's lots you can learn from books or online. But lots of books have dated information. Not everything you read on forums is accurate. It depends on someone's personal circumstances as to whether some advice online is good and applicable to them whereas other times it's not. And of course, you don't learn the proper 'protocol' and other real-world stuff from a book or online.
    RS, please go back and reread my posts. We are in agreement on most of what you’re saying. I never said nobody should attend this course and it only taught Hilo. This is from one of my earlier posts:

    ”Obviously, other things are taught in this course and you get to network and meet Tommy Hiland, which adds value.”

    I said several times this course probably makes sense for some people. And I was not the only person who commented on the price. The original posts was made due to the extremely high price for this two day course. Several well known APs on this site questioned the value of paying this much, and there were also people on the other side who thought it was a good value. It was good debate with minimal name calling. Freightman obviously had to get in some of his name calling.

    I think my point about their price is a valid one. Something you learn in business is that even if you can charge a lot for something you should be careful doing this. It can give you a short term windfall, but be negative for your businesss long term. If you’re not careful, raising prices too high can backfire on you. Look at all the negative publicity they’re getting for it on this forum. That’s actually good advice.

    As Bubbles said, the price for this course in the past was less. I think it was only $2,000 a year ago. So they implemented a 50% price increase, and now it costs $3,000. That’s their right...they can charge whatever they want to. We live in a free country, where the government doesn’t regulate the price of bootcamps (at least not now, lol). But I don’t know if that is the best decision for their business long term. This is my opinion. It might be wrong. There’s probably a place where if they raise their price too much (like to $10,000) then even their defenders will no longer be defending them.

    RS, you’re one of my favorite posters and I’ve always respected your opinion. That’s why I’d like you to go back and reread all my posts on this topic. I think you’ll see we’re pretty much in alignment. As far as what they teach, I encourage you to listen to the Joe podcast on GWAE. This gives you a good idea on their AP philosophy.

    I also agree with your comments about training too many APs. Casinos can only handle so many APs before it gets hard for all of us. I’ve seen more and more young APs come through my area the past two years. Some have been BJA alumni. The first 10 years I hardly saw any. I used to say I had never seen a backoff...I had only experienced one. That’s no longer true.

    Everybody is entitled to do what they want so they can have as many bootcamps and charge whatever they want. If the conditions become so bad at my local stores, I’ll just quite playing and find other things to do.
    Last edited by Dbs6582; 01-08-2019 at 02:52 PM.

  11. #63
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    I think that the whole course ( 3k$ ) can be placed in this post-

    https://www.blackjackinfo.com/commun...uestions.9666/

    Another thing is learning advanced game techniques. My story- I taught these techniques of the game, 10 lessons of two hours ( 5k$ ).
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 01-08-2019 at 12:16 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  12. #64


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    Hi Doghand,

    I wanted to say thanks for helping me out in the past. I see now you are "paying it forward", power to you.

    I looked into Bj apprentice a couple of years ago and decided it was way overpriced, I tried to negotiate with C. but to no avail, actually found him quite rude.

    I can see the value in networking but it's still a heafty price to pay if you are not minted, as for the nuances of the game, their tactic it to play as aggressively as possible until the back-off. period.


    The question of value for money is entirely dependent on self-reliance. Can you teach yourself things? Or do you need it spoonfeed? I always found university tuition to be massively overpriced too. Having said that it is also true that when someone has very limited funds s/he will necessarily cut costs and become an autodidact but miss out on who-knows-what. I'm coming to the end of a rather lonely 6 week vegas trip with some rough negative variance... if I had a community of Ap's to glean strength from or maybe even a team to play with it would make a positive difference.

    Live by the sword, die by the sword.

    ez



    At the end of the day, it's supply and demand...

  13. #65


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    Quote Originally Posted by RCJH View Post
    Knowing more indices allows them to generate EV with a smaller spread.
    RCJH, I went back and read your post since there were several things that didn’t sound right. This sentence in particular isn’t correct. This is a common misconception with newbees...that knowing more index numbers gets you a lot. Please go back and read the chapter on the Illustrious 18 in BJA3. It’s a chapter I’ve read several times. The importance of this finding cannot be overstated.

    This has now become card counting 101 stuff, but at the time it was ground breaking. The main way a counter makes his money (generates EV) is by spreading. Indexes get you relatively little compared to spreading. And indexes past the I18 gets you even less, almost so little some would argue that you’re wasting your time learning more than the I18.

    Bottom line is knowing more indexes than I18 does not allow you to spread less. This is not close to an even tradeoff in EV. Again, this is a common misconception with newbees.

    I’ve mentored several newbees and they also think like this. I have to constantly remind them that knowing indexes past I18 is fun but they shouldn’t be fooled into thinking it gets them much.

    I’m not trying to troll you. I’m just trying to educate you on a fairly simple concept in card counting. Btw, I don’t think the two players you play with learned all these extra indexes through a bootcamp. I know the BJA group also don’t teach this. They understand that learning more indexes doesn’t get you much. I think Colin actually has a YouTube video stating this.

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