True count probability after first hand in shoe with full table

[mochatini]

Could anyone recommend a source to find the +1, +1.5, +2 true count probabilities following one hand from a shoe? Many Thanks!

[muffdiver]

Could anyone recommend a source to find the +1, +1.5, +2 true count probabilities following one hand from a shoe? Many Thanks!

Almost unanswerable because of the variables like number of people playing. I'd say +1's are seldom, +1.5's rare and +2's never (or real close to never)

muffdiver

[Gamblor]

Almost unanswerable because of the variables like number of people playing. I'd say +1's are seldom, +1.5's rare and +2's never (or real close to never)

muffdiver

Also depends on the number of decks.

[AussiePlayer]

Also depends on the number of decks.

And the count being used, far more likely with a level 4 count.

[muffdiver]

Also depends on the number of decks.

Number of decks doesn't matter. We're talking "TC" here.

muffdiver

[muffdiver]

Number of decks matters a lot we are talking after the first hand here. 2 decks divide RC by slightly less than 2, 6 decks divide RC by slightly less than 6.

That's my point exactly! If it's 8 decks, you use the same method and come up with the TRUE COUNT. Again, number of decks makes no difference being we know how to get TC.

muffdiver

[soytari]

may be he asks about true count frequencies in a shoe. in that case.
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/.../6DeckText.htm

[Norm]

The numbers in that article are just estimates. Click BJ Resources in the NavBar and click on CCVX Online for actual numbers.

[muffdiver]

Norm,
Was the OP of this thread edited? I don't remember the words "full table" being there the first time I read it and didn't think it had a subject line either. (at that time)

muffdiver

[Norm]

Starting posts in a thread always have a subject line. Funny thing, when I first read it I didn't see the words "full table." But, I saw them a minute later. Just reading too quickly.

[muffdiver]

Maybe the key phrase to highlight is AFTER THE FIRST HAND (ROUND). Now do you see why number of decks is important. The RC will likely be within the same range for all deck numbers but the denominator is vastly different for each number of decks but with different frequencies. You would expect to see about 12 times bigger range for SD than 6 deck, 6 times bigger on each side of TC 0.

Somehow, you're losing me. I see it this way. RC is only needed for one reason and that reason is calculating TC (RC divided by number of undealt decks). As we know, RC=TC in single deck games. TC is TC no matter how many decks used.
What part of my reasoning is wrong?

muffdiver

[iCountNTrack]

The true count frequencies will depend on three factors:
A) The number of decks
B) The number of cards dealt in the round
C) The rounding technique used (round, floor, truncate)

For the number of cards dealt after the first round, we know on average that a player and dealer get about 2.8 cards on average. The op is looking for a full table, so six players + the dealer, that is 7*2.8 cards, or 20 cards dealt. The following has the true count frequencies for single deck and 6 deck game where rounding was used (notice that some true counts are impossible because of that). Note how the much bigger range of true counts for single deck, that is why we cherish single deck so much

[iCountNTrack]

Somehow, you're losing me. I see it this way. RC is only needed for one reason and that reason is calculating TC (RC divided by number of undealt decks). As we know, RC=TC in single deck games. TC is TC no matter how many decks used.
What part of my reasoning is wrong?

muffdiver

TC=RC/number of UNSEEN decks, with single deck your denominator will quickly become less than one, for 6 deck the divisor start out with 6 decks

Edit: Thanks for muffdvier for pointing out the typo