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Thread: Adding AA78mTc side count to High Low

  1. #661
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    CC showed HL w AA78mTc and 5m6c beat HO2 w ASC with PE but HL was 2% below HO2 - 2*(Adef) for BC and when HL + (1/3)*(5m6c) was used SCORE gap was reduced but HL system still lost because BC was still over 1% below HO2 w ASC.
    No. You want to understand how accurate something is look at the standard deviation of the actual data points that a sim collects around the data points average for each decision bin. Hiopt2/ASC wins because it has a tight standard deviation around its averages. CC has no way of indicating what matters. It is just a starting point for making a system. Then you try to tighten all the decision bell curves around their averages to get a low SD for the betting or playing decision. BC is a correlation. It has nothing to do with accuracy. You want to know why your system won't beat Hiopt2/ASC look at these graphs.

    Post #17:
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-at-tc-1/page2

    Post #30:
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-at-tc-1/page3

    Look at the scale at the bottom of each graphs. The Hiopt2/ASC graph shows accuracy and is very tight around the average. The Hilo graph is over twice as wide with much longer tails but the BC isn't very different. That is the difference between betting accuracy and BC. The more accurate bets also allow you to bet more at the same RoR when everything else is kept equal. For example a Hilo optimal bet S17, DAS, LS, 6 deck/1 cut off with the SCORE standards for everything else other than bets is 2x1 to 2x130 and a c-SCORE of 73.90, while Hiopt2/ASC 2x14 to 2x140 and a c-SCORE of 85.75. Now all of these are for full indicesKO preferred gets 2x12 to 2x120 and a SCORE of 62.33.

  2. #662
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    This is all pointless. Again, EoRs are back of the envelop estimates of efficacy used only for the purposes of identifying possible avenues of investigation. They were brilliantly conceived. But, stop pretending that they are accurate.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

  3. #663
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c beats HO2 w ASC in the vast majority of CC so its beats HO2 w ASC in PE. Also BC of KO system beats HO2 system. So KO system will beat HO2 w ASC. Just wait for simulations and you will see.
    All of Gronbogs sims, Don's help, an all the other people helping you understand things in this thread and you still haven't learned anything. CC ha nothing to do with sim results. Sim results are from the interaction of many components like betting accuracy, playing decision accuracy, variance, and bet size. I am talking the interaction between all these things. The individual performance of each is meaningless. CC is even more meaningless.

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    All that stuff you are doing is way harder than keeping a level 2 count and won't outperform them. Even if it did outperform a level 2 count, why not just use the much easier level 2 count?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Even if it did outperform a level 2 count, why not just use the much easier level 2 count?
    Because it all have to do with personality and not changing one's attitude. Refusing to make change to things.

  6. #666


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    Sims only show what I call Power. How powerful a system is if played perfectly. But sims do not take into account the other components I spoke about namely, Accuracy, Camoflague plays and side counts used for possible side bets and ease of use. I will not discuss ease of use in much detail to avoid long discussions but will concentrate on the other three.

    And everyone conveniently refuses to discuss Accuracy which is very, very important with large bets and they concentrate only with Power under the assumption that the HO2 with ASC can be kept with as much accuracy when large bets are being made as the KO system. Accuracy is not discussed because it is a losing argument for the HO2 w ASC.

    Accuracy
    Everyone is concentrating on HO2 with ASC but HO2 is a balanced count and so its pivot is a true count of zero. Gronbog's sim assume decks remaining are estimated to the nearest half deck. With the KO system with a pivot at a true count of 4, at its pivot, the true count is exact independent of decks remaining. At a true count of five, just one true count point form the KO's pivot of 4 but five true count points away from HL's pivot of zero (I am using HL here because HO2 is level 2 and has higher SD than level one KO) is five true count points from it's pivot of a true count of zero and so for the same accuracy of decks remaining, KO system true count calculations is five times more accurate than HL. that is, for a true count of 5, if HL is estimating decks remaining to the nearest half deck, then KO equivalent would be estimation decks remaining to the neatest tenth of a deck. And then there is the accuracy of the side counts. A side count of Aces is calculated as Adef = Ap - 4*dp and so is dependent on estimation dp so Adef is also an estimate. Any errors in estimating dp means errors in estimating Adef. 5m6c and AA89mTc side counts do not involve any estimate of dp and are EXACT. So KO system give very accurate true counts around its pivot of a true count of 4 where large bets are made and XmYc side counts are exact.

    I have mentioned Accuracy several times and everyone ignore accuracy and concentrates only on Power as shown through simulations. If simulations show theoretically that one count system is superior to another, if in practical use that superior power count system is less accurate than the other, then this extra theoretical power will not be achieved in practice. Not one user has countered my argument of Accuracy and ignored accuracy because they know they cannot win on the accuracy argument.

    Camouflage
    This has been addressed in previous posts where users admitted that bet spread, which is obvious, is what casinos look at the most. The only plays that casinos look at are mainly insurance and splitting Tens.

    But I have shown that prefect insurance is KO + AA89mTc >= crc(4). So if tc(KO) = 6, for example, and AA89mTc < (-2)*dr then do NOT insure an so casinos, who are probably tracking with the HL or even just looking at your big bet, will see you with a large bet out and not taking insurance! That will probably buy the player some cover. Other strange plays were not mentioned because with HO2 they just do not occurs. The CC for insurance for KO + AA89mTc is 100% whereas CC of HO2 system is only 92.8%. So KO system provides cover play for insurance not possible with HO2.

    Another strange play I brought up was hitting hard 12 v 6 when the count is high and you have a large bet out. You would never be doing this with the HO2 and furthermore you are even violating basic strategy at a high count where you should definitely 5%be standing on hard 12 v 6 and you will look like you really do not know what you are dong.. But with the KO system this play iis possible. With the KO system the CC of S17 game for this play is 99.8% for stand on hard 12 v 6 and the rule is stand on hard 12 v 6 if KO + 1.5*(AA89mTc) >= crc(-1) or hit hard 12 v 6 if AA89mTc <= (2/3)*(-1 - t)*dr where t = tc(KO) so if tc(KO) = 2 then hit hard 12 v 6 if AA89mTc < (-2)*dr and if tc(KO) = 4 then hit if AA89mTc < (-3)*dr. So you can have a big bet out and be hitting hard 12 v 6. This play, not possible with HO2, would also potentially buy player some cover. HO2 with ASC for hard 12 v 6 has a CC of only 91.5% compared to KO with AA89mTc CC of 99.8%. So KO system provides cover play for hitting hard 12 v 6 not possible with HO2.

    Side Bets
    The AA89mTc and 5m7c can come in handy for certain side bets. I have already talked about using KO + AA89mTc for lucky ladies. 5m7c can help with say Blazing 7's bet. So these side counts can come in handy for side bets as a bonus.

    So even if KO system came in slightly below HO2 with ASC for Power the other three advantage that I mentioned above would make this system worth while. And remember its components are a level 1 counts (except for AA89mTc which is technically level 2 but the Aces just cancel two Tens on the table, not difficult) where as HO2 is a complicated level 2 counts where many ranks are counts as +2.

    But I am not going to worry about KO system not being powerful. I will stick by my prediction that KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c will most likely beat HO2 with ASC for the no LS game and will definitely beat HO2 with ASC for the LS game.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 02-11-2019 at 09:58 PM.

  7. #667
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    Hopeless.

  8. #668


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Hopeless.
    Same thing many say about you and the bullshit you've typed out over the years...

  9. #669


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    This is all pointless. Again, EoRs are back of the envelop estimates of efficacy used only for the purposes of identifying possible avenues of investigation. They were brilliantly conceived. But, stop pretending that they are accurate.
    Please explain a few ponts about EoR. If EoR are so useless, then why has BJA3 bothered to list EoR to 4 or 5 significant figures? I used EoR for all of my calculations and each time I added more changes to the HL system the SCORE improved. That menas EoR must work.

    After Gronbog finishes his sims of my KO system, which I used EoR to calculate, then I would like you to revisit your comments on EoR.

    Also you mentioend blackjack is not linear (which I heard many times before) but I also read that the linear model is sill very good for blackjack and EoR were calcluated using LSL I believe.

    I am assuming that non-linearly would be important only with less than one deck remaining and if more than one deck is remaining, then linearity is sitll an excellent approxiimation.

    Again, I am not sure about this. So if you do not mind, please expound a little on the non-linearity of blackjack and my comment that with more than one deck remaining, the non-linearly of blackjack can be ignored without much error.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 02-11-2019 at 09:56 PM.

  10. #670


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Hopeless.
    Hopelss is not a response. Address my issues, espeically Accuracy. You can not address Accuracy so you take the easy way out and just say hopeless.

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