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Thread: Adding AA78mTc side count to High Low

  1. #716


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    will include an exhibit showing this which where I actually calculated the true count range for true count -2 to +10 for the HL and KO assuming decks estimated to the nearest full deck as Gronbog did in his simulations.
    The sim parameters were the same as BJA3 chapter 10, so deck estimation was to the nearest 1/2 deck.

  2. #717


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    The sim parameters were the same as BJA3 chapter 10, so deck estimation was to the nearest 1/2 deck.
    Sorry, my exhibit shows the decks were estimated to the nearest half deck and that is what I meant to write as you can see from the ehixbit. I mistyped when I wrote ot the nearest full deck. Thanks for the catch of my typo.

  3. #718


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I thought from several posts ago you promise to give up the claim that your system outperforms HI-OPT II ASC when the simulations show that it didn't. Stop saying that your system outperforms Hi-OPT II ASC when it doesn't.
    Simulations show that for back counting (which is how you should be playing the shoe game anyhow) that my system does outperform the HO2 w ASC. If you are playing with negative counts than you have a bigger problem than trying to find the best system.

    Also when LS is simulated you will see even a bigger difference with my KO system pulling even farther ahead than the HO2 w ASC.

    And you also totally ignored the other 4 points I must mentioned in choosing a count system. The HO2 system is very difficul to keep and is subject to extreme errors in true count calculations from errors in estimating decks played. So whatever theoretical advantage that the sims show for the HO2 w ASC you lose when put into practical play.

    With the KO the true counts are extremely accurate around the true count pivot for a true count of 4 which is where you want accuracy and the XmYc side count is EXACT.

    So stop just dwelling on power as reflected by the sims. Consider all five points in choosing a count system. And anyhow, my KO system does outperform the HO2 w ASC unless you are stupid enough to play in all negative counts.

  4. #719


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    To me, keeping the HiOpt2 with ASC is quite easy, almost as easy as HiLo and KO. And I find your system with ONLY ONE side count is extremely difficult since ace side count is independent to the main count components while yours are overlapped to each other.
    That is a matter of opinion. I tried to keep HO2 only and made tons of errors. Level 2 counts are difficult FOR ME that is why no team uses level 2 counts and they usually stick with just the HL. But if they switched to KO and just added 5m7c it would still be very easy for a team to use as 5m7c side count is extremely easy to keep (and I think AA89mTc is also easy to keep but I will ignore AA89mTc for now especially since teams are mainly concerned about betting).

    And here you go with Correlation Coefficients. Yes, A side count of Ace is independent of the primary count but you do NOT need to have the primacy count and side counts independent. You just add linear combinations of the two and then find the CC of the linear combination.

    And besides, 5m7c is independent of the primacy KO count anyhow. The CC of 5m7c and KO is zero just as the CC of Adef with HO2 is zero. But again, using linear combination of counts removes the abstract restriction that side counts need to be independent of the primacy count. There is no need for such a restriction when choosing side counts.
    CC KO system & HO2 w ASC.jpg
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 02-16-2019 at 12:39 PM.

  5. #720


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post

    So stop just dwelling on power as reflected by the sims. Consider all five points in choosing a count system. And anyhow, my KO system does outperform the HO2 w ASC unless you are stupid enough to play in all negative counts.
    Point number 4 is not valid for you system because if you are backcounting the casino will know that you are a counter. Then the casino will ask: "Hi, what are you doing?" Card counting? Defeat the purpose of camouflage. Secondly, in terms of backcounting how are you going to attack the side bets, you just going to table hop and then wongin on the side bets??

  6. #721
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    Simulations show that for back counting (which is how you should be playing the shoe game anyhow) that my system does outperform the HO2 w ASC.

    • Was the optimal entry point used for each?
    • Was Kelly betting calculated and used for the specific sims?
    • Was the RoR set the same for each?
    • Was the hands/hour actually played taken into account as this would be different for the two sims?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #722


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Point number 4 is not valid for you system because if you are backcounting the casino will know that you are a counter. Then the casino will ask: "Hi, what are you doing?" Card counting? Defeat the purpose of camouflage. Secondly, in terms of backcounting how are you going to attack the side bets, you just going to table hop and then wongin on the side bets??
    You know my style of play. I look for $15 tables ($25 is too much for my $1,000 day trip bankroll) and back count with Carla. We play 6 decks game 5 decks dealt and when either KO >= 24 or LLc = KO + AA89mTc >= 24 we come in and play. So when we come in and play we play two, three or four $15 blackjack hands (if spots are available) and the LL bet at $5 if 24 < LLc < 30 and we start increaing LL bet from $10 up to $25 on as any hands as possible if LLc >= 30 and if we are winning. Our day trip backroll is $1,000 for 4 or 5 hours of play which is much less actual play because we are back counting. So the casino does not bother us because of our small bets but LL bet has a huge edge so we still do good and a couple of times a year we hit QHQH for 200 to 1 payout.

    I realize you cannot do what I do if you have to play big money. But you do not have to play EVERY hand either. If the shoe goes really bad you go the the bathroom.

    But I do not have experience with betting big and casino heat. But if you do find an excuse to leave on some really bad counts then your play all will be play most instead and my KO system may equal the HO2 with ASC for play most since it is close for the play all system.

    Then you also have the camofalgue plays that I mentioned with insurance, hitting hard 12 v 6 and standing on hard 15 v 7, 8, 9 or h16 v 7, 8, 9 when tc(KO) >= 4 and tc(5m7c) >= 4, 3, 2, 2, 1.5, 1 respectively which you do not have with the HO2 w ASC.

    And another interesting camouflage play would be standing on hard 14 v T when psrc = KO - 1.5*(5m7c) >= crc(7). The HL index for this is 10 I believe. But the SD(psrc) is much greater than SD(HL) and the CC(psrc) for this play is much larger than the CC(HL) for this play. So psrc = crc(7) occurs as often as tc(HL) = 5 approximately. So it is not that unusual for psrc = crc(7) and don't forget 5m7c is independent of KO, i.e CC(5m7c,KO) = 0 so 5m7c can have all kinds of values independent of KO so psrc can easily be crc(7) and you stand. So if tc(KO) = 4 for example and tc(5m7c) = -2 then KO - 1.5*(5m7c) >= crc(7) or tc(KO + 1.5*5m7c) = 4 - 1.5*(-2) = 7 and so you would stand. So you are standing with a tc(KO) = 4 against a Ten. The pit using the HL will have a tc(HL) = 4 and see you have a big bet out and standing on hard 14 v T which they know the index is 10 and not 4 and think you are an idiot.

    Now I want to point out that all of my formulas make logical sense so they are not difficult to remember. Let's consider standing on hard 14 v T if psrc = KO - 1.5*(5m7c) >= crc(7). If 5m7c < 0 then more 7's then 5's came out of the shoe. So as 5m7c decreases and becomes more and more negative then there is a deficiency of 7's and excess of 5's left in the shoe. The deficiency of 7's should make you want to stand on hard 14 v T since it is less likely you will pick up a 7 for a 21 to beat the dealer's probable 20 if there is a deficiency of 7's. So logic tells you the more negative 5m7c is the more you want to stand on hard 14 v T. Now let's see if this agrees with the formula psrc = KO - 1.5*(5m7c) >= crc(7). if 5m7c decreases, then psrc increases and eventually psrc exceeds crc(7) and you stand. So logic agrees with the formula as it should. This makes "memorizing" the chart of changes a lot easier.

    Anyhow, wait for the LS simulations and you will see even a bigger difference between KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c and HO2 with ASC.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 02-16-2019 at 02:22 PM.

  8. #723


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    • Was the optimal entry point used for each?
    • Was Kelly betting calculated and used for the specific sims?
    • Was the RoR set the same for each?
    • Was the hands/hour actually played taken into account as this would be different for the two sims?
    These are questions you need to ask Gronbog. I gave Gronbog the values of k1 and k2 and my judgmental RA indices and he entered them into his sim program. To me his sim program is a black box. But whatever Gronbog did, he did the same for my system and the HO2 with ASC so they were both simulated under the same conditions which makes for a valid comparison. Sorry I could not answer your questions more thoroughly. You need to ask Gronbog for specifics when he gets back from vacation.

  9. #724
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    But whatever Gronbog did, he did the same for my system and the HO2 with ASC so they were both simulated under the same conditions which makes for a valid comparison.
    Actually, no it doesn't. That's why I asked the question. It very likely was a valid comparison. But, these questions must be asked.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  10. #725


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Actually, no it doesn't. That's why I asked the question. It very likely was a valid comparison. But, these questions must be asked.
    You are right. I am guessing. I should not speak at all for what Gronbog did. You need to ask Gronbog exactly what he did when he gets back from vacation.

  11. #726


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Point number 4 is not valid for you system because if you are backcounting the casino will know that you are a counter. Then the casino will ask: "Hi, what are you doing?" Card counting? Defeat the purpose of camouflage. Secondly, in terms of backcounting how are you going to attack the side bets, you just going to table hop and then wongin on the side bets??
    True story: bjanalyst was running around his local casino from table to table. He'd put his nose about a half inch from the discard tray trying to decide if he should begin counting the table. They look at him like he's crazy, and when he's not around they say "oh him? He's harmless". It's because his $25 top bet would never scare a soul.

  12. #727


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    True story: bjanalyst was running around his local casino from table to table. He'd put his nose about a half inch from the discard tray trying to decide if he should begin counting the table. They look at him like he's crazy, and when he's not around they say "oh him? He's harmless". It's because his $25 top bet would never scare a soul.
    Regardless, they still know that he is a counter. He is not distinguishing. Point #4 for him still is invalid. Imagine what would happen if he build up his bankroll, then his top bet becomes $250?
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 02-16-2019 at 04:38 PM.

  13. #728


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    I realize you cannot do what I do if you have to play big money. But you do not have to play EVERY hand either. If the shoe goes really bad you go the the bathroom.

    But I do not have experience with betting big and casino heat. But if you do find an excuse to leave on some really bad counts then your play all will be play most instead and my KO system may equal the HO2 with ASC for play most since it is close for the play all system.
    Oh so, you are going to bet small the rest of your life? If it comes time to bet big especially in high limit tables where there is no mid-shoe entry than you would be force to play all. In that case your system would not outperform Hi-OPT II ASC.
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 02-16-2019 at 04:44 PM.

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