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Thread: Adding AA78mTc side count to High Low

  1. #821
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    At 820 posts, this thread is starting to swamp the forum; which is not good considering that very few people have any interest in the subject and approximately no users will make use of the info. Can we try to reduce the number of posts going forward? In particular, the long, repetitive posts filled with formulas that its difficult to believe anyone reads.
    "It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus

  2. #822


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    At 820 posts, this thread is starting to swamp the forum; which is not good considering that very few people have any interest in the subject and approximately no users will make use of the info. Can we try to reduce the number of posts going forward? In particular, the long, repetitive posts filled with formulas that its difficult to believe anyone reads.
    The main problem is bjanalyst. No matter what the topic of the post and question is he keeps repeating previous posts. Even if he is told not to do so. He doesn't answer question about the post. Like for example I ask about play all and told him not to post anything about backcounting because I am not talking about backcounting. He does just the opposite and posted about backcounting. I think he should be given a warning regarding this behavior.
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 02-19-2019 at 03:48 PM.

  3. #823


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    In particular, the long, repetitive posts filled with formulas that its difficult to believe anyone reads.
    Agreed.

  4. #824


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    As for me, I kind of miss the Carla stories. This was the part that made this thread interesting.

  5. #825


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You must be consistent in your terms. Hiopt2/ASC play-all beat your system by 10.92% if memory serves. So you are saying Hiopt2/ASC is 50% to 60% better than KO to make the statement that it almost closed the entire gap. Again more statements made by you that erode your credibility. You are either cherry picking or lying. Since your whole argument that your system beat hiopt2/ASC to begin with is based on cherry picking I will assume this is more cherry picking. But thanks for demonstrating beautifully how bad you cherry pick to make a point. I am sure everyone finds it instructive when assessing anything you say.
    Don't go by memory - actualy look up the sims results before you post. The HL system that I never, ever recommended and was just used for testing is what underperformed the HO2 w ASC. The KO system beat the HO2 w ASC for the back counting game and for the play all game the HO2 w ASC won by 2% for 1-12 spread and 4% for 1-8 spread. No 10% gain ever. And remember, I have very few negative indices for my KO sim and HO2 w ASC had its full set of indices. Wait for LS sims and sims including negative KO system indices.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 02-19-2019 at 07:21 PM.

  6. #826


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    The main problem is bjanalyst. No matter what the topic of the post and question is he keeps repeating previous posts. Even if he is told not to do so. He doesn't answer question about the post. Like for example I ask about play all and told him not to post anything about backcounting because I am not talking about backcounting. He does just the opposite and posted about backcounting. I think he should be given a warning regarding this behavior.
    I repeat because users ask the same questions over and over and over again that I already answered several times. I stated many times that users need to read previous posts and not ask the same question that I answered previously.

    Just look at the last post I just answered where the reader posted what he remembered the sim results to be that was wrong! And you are balming me!

    I am just answering these users questions to be polite but really I should have to answer a question only once. So users need to stop asking the same questions over and over again that I already answered. Users need to read previous posts before asking a question to make sure it is a new question.

    I have no problem in answering new questions, but please do not ask questions that I already answered.

    So here is the deal. You can ask NEW questions anytime. Do not ask questions that I already answered.


    In the absence of NEW questions, then please wait on new posts until Gronbog gets back from vacation on March 10th and is able to re-run no LS KO with negative KO indices added and then do a KO and HO2 w ASC sim on the LS game.

    When Gronbog comes back from vacation, he can email me when he is ready for these new sims and I will email him the indices that I would like him to use as well as the values of k1 and k2 for these situations. I will also post these indices and the values of k1 and k2 and the LS indices and values of k1 and k2 that I give to Gronbog for his simulations so you can see what was simulated. But that will not happen until Gronbog gets back on March 10th and Gronbog sends me an email that he is ready to do the sims and then I will send him the indices and values for k1 and k2 for his new set of sims.

    So just be patient. NEW questions can be asked any time. In the absence of any new questions, then please wait until Gronbog gets back on March 10th for new posts.
    Last edited by bjanalyst; 02-19-2019 at 07:17 PM.

  7. #827


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    Don't go by memory - actualy look up the sims results before you post. The HL system that I never, ever recommended and was just used for testing is what underperformed the HO2 w ASC. The KO system beat the HO2 w ASC for the back counting game and for teh play all game the HO2 w ASC won by 2% for 1-12 spread and 4% for 1-8 spread. No 10% gain ever. And remember, I have very few negative indices for my KO sim and HO2 w ASC had its full set of indices. Wait for LS sims and sims including negative KO system indices.
    Again, not answering the post. Did Three's post say anything about "backcounting"??? He mention play all. You have to stop posting about backcounting when the post is about play all.

    Quote from Three’s post:
    “You must be consistent in your terms. Hiopt2/ASC play-all beat your system by 10.92% if memory serves.”
    Where do you see that is say backcounting in there?

  8. #828
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjanalyst View Post
    Don't go by memory - actualy look up the sims results before you post. The HL system that I never, ever recommended and was just used for testing is what underperformed the HO2 w ASC. The KO system beat the HO2 w ASC for the back counting game and for the play all game the HO2 w ASC won by 2% for 1-12 spread and 4% for 1-8 spread. No 10% gain ever.
    No you should check rather than post from memory. I was right.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    With time running our before I go away for a few weeks, I only had time to run one sim for bjanalyst's KO system. I decided it would be best to run a sim of the system using all of his indices and also using his side count for betting. The rationale being that if it didn't beat HiOpt II + ASC, then the incremental sims would not be important and if it did, then this would be the sim that would show it. The sim is designated as KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b in the results below.


    • As was done for the HiLo system, the sim is for 5/6 S17 DAS DOA SPL3 noLS. That way I could add the result to the previous table for comparison with the results for the other systems.
    • bjanalyst posted his indices earlier in the thread. This sim used all of the indices except for surrender, since this game does not have surrender.
    • bjanalyst let me know that these indices are intended to be RA indices. I don't know how much of a difference RA indices typically make for SCORE but this needed to be made clear since the indices for the other sims were EV maximizing.
    • This sim also used his 5m7c count as a side count for betting. The betting count was KO + (1/2)x(5m7c).


    Executive Summary

    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b does in fact have a higher SCORE than HiOpt II + ASC for the back-counting scenarios. It does not beat HiOpt II + ASC for the play-all scenarios, but comes closer than the HiLo system did.

    Here are the updated results. I now return you to your regularly scheduled counting system debate.

    Code:
    Scenario        System                  Source         SCORE     Improvement
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Play-All 1-8
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        24.30
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        27.18        11.85%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        27.89        2.61%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        28.35        1.65%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        29.53        4.16%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        30.37        2.84%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        32.94        8.46%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        34.49        4.71%
    
    Play-All 1-10
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        29.27
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        32.33        10.45%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        33.07        2.29%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        33.54        1.42%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        34.83        3.85%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        35.78        2.73%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        38.89        8.69%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        40.03        2.93%
      
    Play-All 1-12
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        33.04
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        36.21        9.59%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        36.95        2.04%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        37.44        1.33%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        38.80        3.63%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        39.84        2.68%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        43.35        8.81%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        44.19       10.92%
    
    Back-Count 1-1
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        46.86
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        49.64        5.93%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        50.03        0.79%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        50.43        0.80%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        51.67        2.46%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        52.95        2.48%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        55.70        5.19%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        57.89        3.93%
    
    Back-Count 1-2
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        55.56
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        58.86        5.94%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        59.45        1.00%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        60.06        1.03%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        61.44        2.30%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        63.09        2.69%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        66.77        5.83%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        68.45        2.52%
    
    Back-Count 1-4
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        61.24
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        64.49        5.31%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        65.01        0.81%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        65.60        0.91%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        66.98        2.10%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        68.46        2.21%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        72.31        5.62%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        74.88        3.55%
    
    Back-Count 1-8
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        62.91
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        65.96        4.85%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        66.43        0.71%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        67.00        0.86%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        68.32        1.97%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        70.08        2.58%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        74.35        6.09%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        76.60        3.03%
    
    Back-Count 1-12
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        63.23
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        66.48        5.14%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        67.05        0.86%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        67.68        0.94%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        69.11        2.11%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        70.92        2.62%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        75.05        5.82%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        77.37        3.09%
    
    Unrestricted
                    HiLo 1994               Gronbog        63.87
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 6          Gronbog        67.01        4.92%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 12         Gronbog        67.55        0.81%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc 26         Gronbog        68.16        0.90%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c       Gronbog        69.54        2.02%
                    HiLo+AA78mTc+5m6c+b     Gronbog        71.27        2.49%
                    HiOpt II + ASC          Gronbog        75.22        5.54%
                    KO+5m7c+AA89mTc+b       Gronbog        77.95        3.63%

  9. #829


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    Questions for Gronbog:

    What true count division method (Round, Truncated, Floor) did you use to simulate Hi-OPT II?
    For deck estimation resolution did you use half deck or quarter deck?
    For the play-all simulations did you using heads up or multiple players?
    For backcounting how many players was used?

  10. #830


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    As I wrote when I posted the initial results, the SIM parameters are the same as BJA3 chapters 9 and 10. Specific answers to your questions are:
    Floored true counts
    Deck estimates rounded to the nearest half deck
    3 basic strategy players to the right of the key player
    Same for back counting

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