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Thread: odds of this happening

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    The love is mutual, mon ami ... but why does martingale work in tourneys then?
    In a tournament, the Martingale increases your odds of making up a fixed deficit because you have to lose a fixed number of hands in order to fail. If you do fail, you will have busted out, but in a tournament, that's the same as falling short by a single chip.

    Summary: Improved odds of success for no risk.

  2. #15


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    A lot of the statements in this thread can be summed up as "Martingale works if and only if your utility curve is shaped in a way that allows it to work."

    A basic example is tournament play, as described above - the utility of a small but sufficient win is much larger than the utility of keeping your chips.

    A more extreme example might be a person who wants to lose money. Then, the Martingale system will work just fine over an infinite period of time, although going all-in on every hand until you lose is probably more efficient.

    I haven't really said much in this post - certainly nothing ground-breaking - but I'm just describing how I like to think about these kinds of questions. Anyone considering a wacky short-term strategy should think really hard about what their utility curve is, and then use that to determine whether or not to go ahead with the strategy.

  3. #16
    Senior Member Frostbyte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    In a tournament, the Martingale increases your odds of making up a fixed deficit because you have to lose a fixed number of hands in order to fail. If you do fail, you will have busted out, but in a tournament, that's the same as falling short by a single chip.

    Summary: Improved odds of success for no risk.
    Couldn't have said it better myself.

    Why do we never discuss tournaments here?
    "Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"

  4. #17


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    Never lost 7 straight hands??? Are you kidding me or do you only have a couple hours of blackjack under your belt? I play full time and I lose 20 straight hands once a month. As for 7 straight hands I have lost seven straight hands at a plus count of 11 (hilo) and miraculously it stayed +11 for all 7 hands (boy I felt that lost for days). You are either the luckiest guy in the world or you do not have many hands under your belt.

    (For the record +11 is extremely rare and I have never before or since got another one).

  5. #18


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    i got more than tc 15+ quite a few times. at close to 5 decks played ~4.8 decks RC was 18-22 for something like 4-6 hands. a couple of times past the 5.25 decks mark , I had a 14-19 Rc . That's only in less that's 150 hrs of play. Yes ,i got a guy that cut deep , the game is gone now . I have made about 80 max bets during this period ,but sadly i lost 75% of it back due to variance (well i did over bet by 20% for about 10 hands.)
    Last edited by stopgambling; 06-29-2013 at 08:21 PM.

  6. #19
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    Using my level 2 count I have seen betting TCs in the 30s a few times. An RC in the 50's occurs in the main count occasionally. When there is also an ace surplus you get those huge betting counts. RCs in the 30s and 40s are much more common.

  7. #20


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    If I remember correctly, the highest TC I've ever played in was about 18 or low 20's (Level 2 count). Interestingly enough, it happened in back to back shoes. I got owned in one of them but I crushed the other, ending with about 2 max units ahead. [Hey, at least I was ahead after the two monster counts!]
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by rackit View Post
    fully aware martingale is a bad idea. ive tried it and lost 600+ fairly quick a few months back
    at my local cardroom that i go to regularly i dont think ive ever lost 7 hands in a row. not like that matters but just throwing it out there. that being said, its possible to do that next time im in there without question.
    ive lost 300 the past 3 times ive been in there (just throwing out big bets at the wrong time..) so its not the end of the world if i waste 600+ if the chances of loosing all that are slimmer than just shooting fat bets out like ive been.
    $5 min $500 max.
    5-10-20-40-80-160-320
    buy in for 640. what are the odds of walking away just 100 or 200 ahead? at 50/50 odds an estimate would be in 40 hands you would be around that $100 mark IF you dont hit that 7 loosing streak obviously..
    (it would be more hands taking in consideration pushes and 3+ loosing streaks but that can go both ways i suppose..) what are the odds of hitting that 7 loose streak in that 40 hands? how about in 80 hands?
    Once again, you're risking $640 to try to win $5. Must be a democrat.

  9. #22
    Senior Member bebe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21gunsalute View Post
    Once again, you're risking $640 to try to win $5. Must be a democrat.

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