Crazy downswings.

[Stealth]

And on index drills i am about 85% accurate.

Just validates my earlier comments.

BTW......CVCX plays like a computer, we do not.

Your comments are indicative of a junior player with expectation beyond reality.

ALL OF US HAVE COUNTLESS STORIES ABOUT BAD BEATS! Frankly, I couldn't care less that at +8 you split 10s and lost and neither do the experienced players.

Go verify your game and validate your protocols and go play......... or not........

[Ldubz274]

Like I said, that will not make much of a difference at all, maybe add $1 to my hourly rate, I have memorized the illustrious 18 like the back of my hand, those are the important ones, the rest of them are very small difference, as long as I memorize basic strategy and the illustrious 18 that is all that matters, I actually know about 40 or 50 indexes . but you make it seem like it's life-or-death not knowing that extra few indexes, which doesn't even really help that much... and that situation about splitting the tens and getting two twenties and the dealer getting 21 would not make me so angry, but it has been happening to me almost every day, things like that, that is why I was just asking everybody what they're worse downswing was? Because this is getting out of this world... I can guarantee you that memorizing those extra few indexes would not make it so I would not have hit that down swing... Just because maybe one or two times in that 22 hours of play, I hit a Skyrocket count and I didn't double my soft 13 vs 4 or something like that.. which maybe takes away a few since from my EV.

[cc12b]

What's everybody's worst variance stories?

It happened to me too. I was slowly but steady grow my BR last couple years but since last Nov to now, just several weeks the down swing killing me and wipes out almost all what I have gain. The weir thing is most lost are in high count with high bets including splits and doubling when other players at tables had good hands but I got most of stiff and bust. Change to different tables, shifts, casinos make no different as if bad luck follows me. So frustration/depress as "what the hell?".

[Ldubz274]

Yep, exactly the same as me, I've tried switching casinos and everything, nothing helps... It's so frustrating because I go on these really crazy winning streaks, when I will win almost every single hand the entire shoe, but it will be on a negative count so I'm not able to bet big, and then when it finally gets positive, I'm able to bet big, and then I start losing every hand... So frustrating makes you want to pull your hair out lol...

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[Optimus Prime]

It was +8 so i split my 10s vs dealers 4. I get two 20s. Dealer has 4. Pulls 7 then monkey.

A sim would have re-split - why didn't you?

[hitthat16]

I know how you feel and so do the vast majority of people who have done this for any decent amount of time. My bankroll is currently at the same spot as it was back in late January. I hit an all time high in April and haven’t been able to get back up there since. I’m currently about 15K under EV and just waiting for that streak of invincibility. In the past couple weeks I had two separate sessions where I had a -2.5 standard deviation loss before recovering. This is all in about 200 hours of table time. Stuff happens!

[Reign Man]

Playing heads up DD also gives the opportunity to have the winning streaks followed by -2 SD downswings in just a month. My biggest session win was heads up. I wasn't too happy about it at the time b/c I thought, 'I could just have easily have lost that much.' Perhaps it's that attitude that's kept me going through years long stretches of breaking even.

Your comments are indicative of a junior player with expectation beyond reality.

ALL OF US HAVE COUNTLESS STORIES ABOUT BAD BEATS! Frankly, I couldn't care less that at +8 you split 10s and lost and neither do the experienced players.

Go verify your game and validate your protocols and go play......... or not........

Agreed. Practice deck estimation drills, 1/4 deck estimation becomes more important in DD. Not that the count is to blame, but Knock-out isn't appropriate for DD. Shoe games could extend your longevity. Your -2 SD downswing is a combination of a completely normal and to be expected run of bad variance + not betting / playing every hand correctly.

[Ldubz274]

But using hi lo vs knock out would not be a huge difference. Not big enough to avoid a big bad variance. Also, i ran a sim, for double deck with those rules, 55% pen hi lo and double deck have almost the exact same score.

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[Ldubz274]

And optimpus prime. To answer your question. I am using knock out which doesnt have true count conversion in a poor pen double deck game. So my index generated by CV data for that exaxct system in that exact game says to split 10s vs 4 on +7. But the problem with a knockout strategy is that is under bedding at first and over betting near the last hand, so to counteract this, if it is the last hand being doubt, I always take away + 1 from the running count.

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[Optimus Prime]

And optimpus prime. To answer your question. I am using knock out which doesnt have true count conversion in a poor pen double deck game. So my index generated by CV data for that exaxct system in that exact game says to split 10s vs 4 on +7. But the problem with a knockout strategy is that is under bedding at first and over betting near the last hand, so to counteract this, if it is the last hand being doubt, I always take away + 1 from the running count.

My mistake - when you said "+8" I read that as a true count in high-low or another balanced system. In high-low, the index for that play is +6 so I figured you'd keep re-splitting until you couldn't any more. In KO, this was probably the right play.