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Thread: Risk of ruin question

  1. #1


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    Risk of ruin question

    Hi,

    does calculator that determine risk of ruin take into consideration the possibility of negative bankroll, for example when i have to play six base unit but i have only four base unit, or does it force you to play only four base unit remained when you should play with six base unit?

    Thanks

  2. #2


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    Please restate your question as it is not clear.......
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    For example,
    my initial bankroll is 2000$ and base unit 10$, after N hands i have 30$ bankroll, but according to my counting system i should bet 80$. Two alternative scenarios:
    1) I underbetting so i bet 30$ instead of 80$
    2) I can have negative bankrool and bet 80$ with my bankrool go -50$ (for example with credit)

    my question is: which of two scenarios does risk of ruin choose and consider? with the second scenario if i win this hand bankroll becomes 110$, with the first scenario bankroll becomes 60$, so after this hand change the possibility of ruin because in second scenario i have a larger bankroll and accordingly lower risk of ruin.

    Thanks

  4. #4
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    You should basically resize your betting spread after each session of playing I guess. Especially if you get hit by a large positive or negative variance.

  5. #5
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    I could answer your question for realize but I don't know what the software does.

  6. #6


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    We sometimes get into a situation where out session bankroll has diminished to a very small amount. In a case where one is playing a $10 minimum game (and there are no lesser minimum tables), should one keep on playing till entire session bankroll is gone or should we be playing that last shoe knowing you have lost the capacity to maintain your spread? Yes, it's probably possible to end up winning but to me it's like a hail Mary pass with a very minute chance of being succesful.

    Are there guidelines out there of a minimum amount to play that last shoe?

  7. #7
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    Sine everyone is giving advice without answering the question I will say this. You shouldn't start a shoe if you don't have enough on you to play through a monster count gone bad. If you decide you have to play, you must resize your bets so that you have enough to play through the latter situation. If you under bet or leave in the middle of an advantage shoe you are cutting into your edge. You have the rest of your life to play. There is no reason you have to continue play without the necessary funds.

    But I still don't know how the software was programmed.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack_player View Post
    Hi,

    does calculator that determine risk of ruin take into consideration the possibility of negative bankroll, for example when i have to play six base unit but i have only four base unit, or does it force you to play only four base unit remained when you should play with six base unit?

    Thanks
    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack_player View Post
    For example,
    my initial bankroll is 2000$ and base unit 10$, after N hands i have 30$ bankroll, but according to my counting system i should bet 80$. Two alternative scenarios:
    1) I underbetting so i bet 30$ instead of 80$
    2) I can have negative bankrool and bet 80$ with my bankrool go -50$ (for example with credit)

    my question is: which of two scenarios does risk of ruin choose and consider? with the second scenario if i win this hand bankroll becomes 110$, with the first scenario bankroll becomes 60$, so after this hand change the possibility of ruin because in second scenario i have a larger bankroll and accordingly lower risk of ruin.

    Thanks
    Sounds like you have only one option if you want to continue play and that is with credit. We do not know who you are borrowing from but regardless of which way you are obtaining credit, I think it is a really bad idea.
    Last edited by BoSox; 12-10-2018 at 07:53 AM.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack_player View Post
    with the second scenario if i win this hand bankroll becomes 110$,
    Really, what happens if you have multiple splits and doubles?

  10. #10


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    The software that i use to calculate risk of ruin is CVCX, help guide indicates as risk of ruin formula: where m bankrool, mu is mean of 100 hands outcome, sigma is st. deviation of 100 round outcome. risk of ruin formula for trip is similar but with the addition of n (number of hands played) variable. Suppose my trip risk of ruin is 10%, if i run a simulation i obtain that 1 trip of 10 i get ruin. i would like to know how simulation behave to obtain the same percentage of the formula (if it underbets or if goes negative with bankroll and so decrease the value of next trip bankroll of the amount going negative)

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack_player View Post
    Suppose my trip risk of ruin is 10%, if i run a simulation i obtain that 1 trip of 10 i get ruin. i would like to know how simulation behave to obtain the same percentage of the formula (if it underbets or if goes negative with bankroll and so decrease the value of next trip bankroll of the amount going negative)
    I have been away from my computer for several days, so please forgive me if this has already been answered. Since ROR refers to the chance that you will lose your entire bankroll, I do not see how it can make the choices you are asking about. It would not make sense for the software to build in money from your next session, or from your neighbor. If you knew you had access to money to continue betting at the level you started...your bankroll would be larger to begin with.

    This goes back to the point that Don makes about 9 out of 10 people making it across the Grand Canyon. If you are the one who does not make it - you are done. You don't get to borrow money as you are hurtling down toward the bottom. I am sure I am messing up his metaphor, but you get the point. The computer software can't possibly change the rules of the game as far as ROR is concerned. Now when you use CVData, you can tell the computer to keep going as if you have access to more funds, but that is another story.

    When you ask about the under-betting in order to keep playing, I would think the only time it would do that is if you are down to your last bet and you can't play the amount your ramp calls for. Other wise, it would be set up to use Kelly or some fraction of Kelly and that would again be against the rules of ROR.

    I have not seen the code, so this is just my answer based on the way I think the program logically has to run. I am surprised that Norm has not answered this, so maybe he has not seen this thread.

    I hope someone will let me know if I am off base or unclear.

  12. #12


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    You're right in everything you've said.

    Before I explained it, blackjack books used to calculate ROR exactly as you described, namely, they'd have an "endpoint" mentality that permitted them to get to the last hand of x hands, even if, in actual play, they would have tapped out prematurely. They figured the odds as if, miraculously, you would be lent money to always be able to finish the requisite number of rounds. For example, footnote 5 on p. 162 of Bryce cCarlson's Blackjack for Blood is a direct result of my writing to him to explain what he had previously been doing wrong.

    All the ROR ruin formulas and calculations in BJA3 correct that previous, erroneous way of reasoning.

    Don

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