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Thread: Cards grouped together.

  1. #1


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    Cards grouped together.

    I have a question about certain plays. This is meant for my area which is H17 DAS double deck with poor penetration (55%) so my question is this. I have noticed on several occasions even if the count is favorable, (i use knock out with full indeces) how high is the probability of all the 10s being out in the samw batch of cards? For example. Lets say the count is +8. On the table the dealer shows an ace. And there is four 10s on the table. That means there is so many 10s a small pocket. Now the count would be +3 which still calls for insurance. But what are the chances of ANOTHER 10 being in that same small pack? I can understand maybe for deeper dealt games it might not work like that, but I think in games with poor penetration it might be better to not buy insurance in this situation

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  2. #2


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    Nope the count dictates the probability of that next card being a 10. Not what you see on the table currently. That is ploppyish thinking

    Still take insurance

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    Nope the count dictates the probability of that next card being a 10. Not what you see on the table currently. That is ploppyish thinking

    Still take insurance
    Agree

  4. #4


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    Good answers here. Moral- given no other info available, if the index calls for it, do it.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ldubz274 View Post
    how high is the probability of all the 10s being out in the samw batch of cards?
    No such thing. High, medium-value and low cards all appear at the same rate. Just because a clump of high cards comes out doesn't mean the next card is gonna be a 10 card also.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ldubz274 View Post
    But what are the chances of ANOTHER 10 being in that same small pack?
    The odds of any card being a 10 value card is 4/13.
    Most casino gamblers would think that the deck is *hot* and a 10 is *due* with Aces and 10 cards spread across the felt.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ldubz274 View Post
    I can understand maybe for deeper dealt games it might not work like that, but I think in games with poor penetration it might be better to not buy insurance in this situation
    You take insurance at +3 in level one counts and +6 in level 2 counts regardless of penetration.

    Beating a casino game requires a totally different approach than you would normally play it. Learning to count cards will beat the game theoretically. In reality most card counters bust out at the casino due to not having a large enough bankroll to have planned for a big downswing & thinking they know what they're doing, but don't.

  6. #6


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    But what are the chances of ANOTHER 10 being in that same small pack?
    Slightly better than 2:1 against, evidently.

  7. #7


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    Each card has an equal chance of being anywhere in the pack. Each rank in the pack has an equal chance of containing every card. Each possible sequence of cards is equally likely.

    Do what the count says.

  8. #8


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    In practice, if I have a max bet out, by taking insurance, even if I lose the insurance bet, I win half max bet so I would insure. If I have a 15, or a bust hand, I could insure for less. If I have a min. BET and a good hand, I insure, if a lousy hand, let it go.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    In practice, if I have a max bet out, by taking insurance, even if I lose the insurance bet, I win half max bet so I would insure. If I have a 15, or a bust hand, I could insure for less. If I have a min. BET and a good hand, I insure, if a lousy hand, let it go.

    Regardless of the count or ?

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    In practice, if I have a max bet out, by taking insurance, even if I lose the insurance bet, I win half max bet so I would insure. If I have a 15, or a bust hand, I could insure for less. If I have a min. BET and a good hand, I insure, if a lousy hand, let it go.
    There is some value here, so I’ll slightly rephrase to make it more clear - from my perspective.

    Even below strike point, heads up (but not too much below), I’ll insure a good hand. At strike point, I’ll insure a good and medium hand. With a shitty hand, I’ll let it go. Way over strike point, heads up, I’ll insure everything. With 1 other person, I’ll likely be playing 2 spots,. At strike point, I’ll insure the good hand and not insure the poor hand, or insure for less (for that ploppyish feel). Way over strike point, I’ll always insure the good hand and usually the shitty one as well, though I may 8nsure the shitty hand for less.

    We will all modify our approaches to suit. Some of us have the ability to look like complete and total morons. Unfortunately, I am not that gifted - so pulling a bone head play is a give away.

  11. #11
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    Unbalanced counts work a little different than true counted counts. RC +3 at one point in the shoe is different than RC +3 at another point in the shoe for RC systems. But unbalanced systems are RC systems and unless you do extra work to figure what a RC means for the current depth (true counting the unbalanced count) RC + 3 will have different odds at different depths for a single card. Basically the neutral RC changes as you go through the shoe. So if the IRC is -8 for your DD system, 13 cards removed must be 11 more low cards removed than high cards removed to get a RC of +3. One of the low cards represent the 13 cards removed and the other 10 are the low to high card imbalance for the first 1/4 deck removed. Divide 10 by 7/4 and you get a TC of about +5.7. If there were one deck removed 4 of the 11 cards would represent the penetration level expected for 1 deck removed. That leaves 7 extra high cards in the deck. Divide 7 by 4/4 and you get a TC of +7. Obviously the T density is higher for the latter than the former. I will let those that use RC systems comment further on this. I never used a RC system. Hopefully I didn't mess this up. LoL
    Last edited by Three; 12-15-2018 at 07:45 PM.

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