Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: How close am I to be AP?

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Question How close am I to be AP?

    rules: 8decks, DAS, 75% pen, no surrender, H17, BJ pays 3-2. House edge seems to be 0.66% for this game.
    Using OPP/speed count in the following manner;
    IRC: 8
    I am betting 2 units when count is 16+
    when count goes to 0 or minus I wong out.
    I also stand on 16vsT when count is positive (16+), always stand on a 3 cards+ 16vsT. Other than that I play BS for that particular game.
    Also, note that I get about 0.2% cash back using my player's card. About 2$/h on a 20$ table minimum
    I know theses aren't the best rules but I have no other option in my area and I play mostly for fun.
    It seems that If I were to use KO with the 1-2 spread and those rules I would be -0.19% (not counting comps) so that would be a wash.
    I can't do more than 1-2 spread because of bankroll and high miminums. I am wondering if I should use KO instead which would be more difficult to wong out with.
    So the real question is;

    What will lose me the less between;
    KO 1-2 play all
    OPP 1-2 wong out at RC 0 when IRC is 8
    My gut tells me that OPP might be the better way to go under thoses precises parameters. Can you confirm this?
    Any input appreciated, thanks.

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Melbourne.
    Posts
    803


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    1-2 spread on a 75% pen 8 deck game. What could go wrong?

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Don't play or wong in the last deck with +2 hi lo . GL. i meant if the minimum is $100 and you only have $5000.

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I hope you are mainly doing this to pass time . You could play for comps ,though.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    I hope you are mainly doing this to pass time . You could play for comps ,though.
    Yes the casino comps outweight the negative expectation if there is one.

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    Don't play or wong in the last deck with +2 hi lo . GL. i meant if the minimum is $100 and you only have $5000.
    Even if its negative expectation, its not when considering casino comps and I can have good time with friends. I'm just trying to know if what I do at the moment is the correct move or if I should move to KO without wong out

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    What could go right ?

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    At 2/per hour that's not even hot dog money.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle View Post
    At 2/per hour that's not even hot dog money.
    Sounds like you need a new hot dog guy if you’re paying those inflated prices.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    rules: 8decks, DAS, 75% pen, no surrender, H17, BJ pays 3-2. House edge seems to be 0.66% for this game.
    Using OPP/speed count in the following manner;
    IRC: 8
    I am betting 2 units when count is 16+
    when count goes to 0 or minus I wong out.
    I also stand on 16vsT when count is positive (16+), always stand on a 3 cards+ 16vsT. Other than that I play BS for that particular game.
    Also, note that I get about 0.2% cash back using my player's card. About 2$/h on a 20$ table minimum
    I know theses aren't the best rules but I have no other option in my area and I play mostly for fun.
    It seems that If I were to use KO with the 1-2 spread and those rules I would be -0.19% (not counting comps) so that would be a wash.
    I can't do more than 1-2 spread because of bankroll and high miminums. I am wondering if I should use KO instead which would be more difficult to wong out with.
    So the real question is;

    What will lose me the less between;
    KO 1-2 play all
    OPP 1-2 wong out at RC 0 when IRC is 8
    My gut tells me that OPP might be the better way to go under thoses precises parameters. Can you confirm this?
    Any input appreciated, thanks.
    First that is a bad game at any amounts and especially bad for red chipping.

    Next, you can never win long term with a 1-2 spread unless you only play at TC 2 or higher. That will reduce the rounds per shoe you play to about 25%. That means you are sitting out 75% of the time. If you play any negative counts you can't win long term and will not win very much in the short term even with positive variance.

    If you want to play this game then learn and use KO modified by Color of Blackjack by Daniel Dravot and increase your bet ramp to 1-10 and do not play negative counts.

    To answer your specific question of how close are you to being an AP, the answer is about 4 standard deviations away.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle View Post
    At 2/per hour that's not even hot dog money.
    I go to the casino occasionnally just for fun, not losing while there is a bonus

  12. #12


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    First that is a bad game at any amounts and especially bad for red chipping.

    Next, you can never win long term with a 1-2 spread unless you only play at TC 2 or higher. That will reduce the rounds per shoe you play to about 25%. That means you are sitting out 75% of the time. If you play any negative counts you can't win long term and will not win very much in the short term even with positive variance.

    If you want to play this game then learn and use KO modified by Color of Blackjack by Daniel Dravot and increase your bet ramp to 1-10 and do not play negative counts.

    To answer your specific question of how close are you to being an AP, the answer is about 4 standard deviations away.
    I don't play red chips, there is no such low minimum where I live. To be clear I know full well that K-O 1-2 will still let a 0.19% HOUSE EDGE. My question isn't how can I make this game profitable, this isn't my objective I'm not a full time player. I just want what is the best strategy of theses 2 between the exact parameters that I laid out. I know the rules suck, I know the spread isn't enough to be profitable. However, is there a way to determine the lowest house edge between theses;

    KO 1-2 play all
    OPP 1-2 wong out at RC 0 when IRC is 8

Similar Threads

  1. AC's Showboat to close 8/31
    By TweezerReprise in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 06-28-2014, 12:12 AM
  2. newtocc: So close but yet so far.
    By newtocc in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 04-07-2013, 10:57 PM
  3. Parker: Klondike to close
    By Parker in forum Las Vegas Everything
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 06-15-2006, 10:41 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.