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Thread: How close am I to be AP?

  1. #1


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    Question How close am I to be AP?

    rules: 8decks, DAS, 75% pen, no surrender, H17, BJ pays 3-2. House edge seems to be 0.66% for this game.
    Using OPP/speed count in the following manner;
    IRC: 8
    I am betting 2 units when count is 16+
    when count goes to 0 or minus I wong out.
    I also stand on 16vsT when count is positive (16+), always stand on a 3 cards+ 16vsT. Other than that I play BS for that particular game.
    Also, note that I get about 0.2% cash back using my player's card. About 2$/h on a 20$ table minimum
    I know theses aren't the best rules but I have no other option in my area and I play mostly for fun.
    It seems that If I were to use KO with the 1-2 spread and those rules I would be -0.19% (not counting comps) so that would be a wash.
    I can't do more than 1-2 spread because of bankroll and high miminums. I am wondering if I should use KO instead which would be more difficult to wong out with.
    So the real question is;

    What will lose me the less between;
    KO 1-2 play all
    OPP 1-2 wong out at RC 0 when IRC is 8
    My gut tells me that OPP might be the better way to go under thoses precises parameters. Can you confirm this?
    Any input appreciated, thanks.

  2. #2
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    1-2 spread on a 75% pen 8 deck game. What could go wrong?

  3. #3


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    Don't play or wong in the last deck with +2 hi lo . GL. i meant if the minimum is $100 and you only have $5000.

  4. #4


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    I hope you are mainly doing this to pass time . You could play for comps ,though.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    I hope you are mainly doing this to pass time . You could play for comps ,though.
    Yes the casino comps outweight the negative expectation if there is one.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    Don't play or wong in the last deck with +2 hi lo . GL. i meant if the minimum is $100 and you only have $5000.
    Even if its negative expectation, its not when considering casino comps and I can have good time with friends. I'm just trying to know if what I do at the moment is the correct move or if I should move to KO without wong out

  7. #7


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    What could go right ?

  8. #8


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    At 2/per hour that's not even hot dog money.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle View Post
    At 2/per hour that's not even hot dog money.
    Sounds like you need a new hot dog guy if you’re paying those inflated prices.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by seal89 View Post
    rules: 8decks, DAS, 75% pen, no surrender, H17, BJ pays 3-2. House edge seems to be 0.66% for this game.
    Using OPP/speed count in the following manner;
    IRC: 8
    I am betting 2 units when count is 16+
    when count goes to 0 or minus I wong out.
    I also stand on 16vsT when count is positive (16+), always stand on a 3 cards+ 16vsT. Other than that I play BS for that particular game.
    Also, note that I get about 0.2% cash back using my player's card. About 2$/h on a 20$ table minimum
    I know theses aren't the best rules but I have no other option in my area and I play mostly for fun.
    It seems that If I were to use KO with the 1-2 spread and those rules I would be -0.19% (not counting comps) so that would be a wash.
    I can't do more than 1-2 spread because of bankroll and high miminums. I am wondering if I should use KO instead which would be more difficult to wong out with.
    So the real question is;

    What will lose me the less between;
    KO 1-2 play all
    OPP 1-2 wong out at RC 0 when IRC is 8
    My gut tells me that OPP might be the better way to go under thoses precises parameters. Can you confirm this?
    Any input appreciated, thanks.
    First that is a bad game at any amounts and especially bad for red chipping.

    Next, you can never win long term with a 1-2 spread unless you only play at TC 2 or higher. That will reduce the rounds per shoe you play to about 25%. That means you are sitting out 75% of the time. If you play any negative counts you can't win long term and will not win very much in the short term even with positive variance.

    If you want to play this game then learn and use KO modified by Color of Blackjack by Daniel Dravot and increase your bet ramp to 1-10 and do not play negative counts.

    To answer your specific question of how close are you to being an AP, the answer is about 4 standard deviations away.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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