Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: What are the odds?!?!

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    What are the odds?!?!

    I want to start off by saying I'm new to this forum and want to say hello to everyone. Hello everyone ????. My name is Ben and I saw a clip in a blackjack video that was pretty insane that I actually just have a question about. Without further a do...

    An owner of a casino in Florida allowed a player to bet $11,300 on one hand when the table limit was $1000. Both the dealer and pit manager tried to prusuade this man to not make such a high bet before getting the owner involved. The owner said he would take the bet but that the player had to take back $100 for cab fair in case he lost. After the cards flipped the player showed 2 face cards putting him at 20. The dealer (who was now the owner who approved the large bet) showed a 2 and a 3 putting dealer at 5. At this point the owner looks at the player and offers to pay him out for $5500 to stop the hand. The player refuses and obviously isn't hitting. The dealer then starts turning over cards to try to get a 20 or a 21. Now this is where the odd part happens. First card he turns over is a 2, second card 2, third card 2, forth card 3, fifth card ace, 6th card dealer hits a 6! So now the dealer has a total of 8 cards in front of him (2 from the start and 6 additional hit cards) equaling 21! Obviously everyone who was witness to this was blown away. None more then the guy who just lost $11,300 and jumped out of his seat yelling "no way" and cussing up a storm. This was something I've never ever seen in my experience with blackjack (even though the last time I played the game I was a kid and wasn't even old enough to gamble) and it got me thinking. What are the odds of this happening?!?

    I tried to find some way to figure out these odds on Google searching blackjack odds blah blah blah etc. but no sites we're really gonna help me here. Unfortunately, in this case, I'm not a math major and I couldn't possibly start to work out the odds of this happening myself. since everytime you pull a card from a deck it changes the odds of every card you could potentially pull after that, I wouldn't even know where to start with this mathematical deliema. Does anyone know the odds of this happening? Are there any mathematical geniuses out there that could help me solve this problem? I have to admit that this situation definitely made me a little skeptical and the thought directly following "what are the odds" was, did the dealer/owner cheat somehow? The man in the video, although very upset, didn't seem to think there was any foul play given his post recorded reaction and the fact he didn't mention it at all. He did have first person view of what was happening and was a little drunk at the time of the hand but from watching a lot of theater magic I know there are ways and tricks such as sleight of hand, card tucking/palming etc. of making cards do what you want them to do. I'm probably being paranoid but it's my mind's way of trying to figure out this mathematical oddity. Also, the fact that the owner moved in and replaced the dealer for this one hand on such a high bet makes it seem even more odd since ultimately it was his money on the line.

    Cheers and thanks in advance to anyone who posts trying to help solve this riddle. And I guess the most apt thing to say on a forum such as this is good luck! Happy gambling!

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Depends on the number of decks used. Assuming a 6 deck shoe, probability is 0.00000152356.

    I can't claim credit for the calculation, but got it here: https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/231/

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Getbackjack View Post
    Are there any mathematical geniuses out there that could help me solve this problem?
    You didn't give enough info to run the numbers. The cards are in the shoe. It happens all too often from an AP perspective. But people tend to remember these kinds of things.

    I have seen does like this were the dealer constantly hits out his stiffs against my 20s and makes hands when I stand on stiffs and busts only after I have already busted. I kept figuring some day I will have the dealers luck. It only happened once but I got stiff after stiff in a high ace neutral count and hit out every time. If I stood or had 17 the dealer busted his ace or T, and if I made a hand the dealer always made one point worse than me. Every round was a long shot win. I didn't lose a hand. The dealer had a face or ace up every round (possibly selective memory) and I never had a promising hand. After the shoe was over the dealer commented how it went but said she didn't want to say anything during the shoe because she didn't want to jinx me. I held my tongue during the shoe just in case that was possible. I don't believe in that kind of thing but better safe than sorry. I wonder why we see the dealers get shoes like this a lot but we never get them. Well I guess now I should say we rarely get them.

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You're talking about that casino boat reality TV episode.

    I'll tell you what the odds of it happening were... 100%

    It was staged

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    dealer drawing to 21 with small cards happens all the time. Not rare at all. I recall losing a 20 a few times a day playing whole day. If the story were true, he’s unlucky. But maybe a getting ran into by car unlucky not a getting strike by lightning unlucky.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thanks 21forme!

Similar Threads

  1. Wonder what the odds are..
    By ZeeBabar in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 35
    Last Post: 07-05-2018, 11:40 AM
  2. Odds!?
    By RoadWarrior in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 35
    Last Post: 04-15-2016, 06:12 PM
  3. NFL odds....is 8 the new 7?
    By Sharky in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 09-09-2015, 06:59 AM
  4. odds of 8 cards
    By roliin in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 05-12-2014, 09:11 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.