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Thread: Is using level 2 count in shoe game an overkill

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Start playing using the bug show.
    I don't see "bug show" in CVBJ.

  2. #28
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I don't see "bug show" in CVBJ.
    Error popup. For bets or hit/stand...
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  3. #29
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    I suggested Norm to update CVBJ for simultaneous maintenance of two or more systems. That would be very interesting.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Like I said it was a link to a retired pro who passed up on the extra as being insignificant as he looked at the hourly but realized in retrospect he cost himself hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of his career. There is an hourly cost a yearly cost and a lifetime cost. When yowl at the hourly cost you think it isn't worth it but when you look at the cost for your career after having retired you think how nice it would be to have made hundreds of thousands more than you did. Then you decide it would have been worth it. Like they say hindsight is 20/20. Too bad he didn't have the benefit of someone that had retired and looked at things in retrospect to help him make a better career decision. The decision he made for the length of his career and the cost of keeping things simple cost him hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most people don't have a long career as a full time pro but when they figure the cost they need to look at the big picture. If they will never amass much play they are giving up the same percentage but the pie is small. If they will have a ton of hours at high EV that percentage is from a massive pie or a mountain of pies. Hopefully you understand that what you are giving up is proportional to how much you play and at what EV. The same percentage looks like giving up almost nothing for the part time low level player, but for the full time pro with a long career they are giving up a huge amount of money in their career. In the article he pointed this out. There was a link to it on this site a while back. It was written in retrospect from a retired keep it simple career pro lamenting he had left low to mid 6 figures on the table from being so short sighted. The fact that he made millions in his career might make it look small but when he stopped earning he thought it was a huge amount of money to have left on the table over his decades of play and really regretted it.
    Depends upon how you look at it. If you really want to evaluate this further the longtime pro who used a simple system turned out making more money percentage wise for actual time spent playing the game including research itself than some idiot who uses an ultimate, consummate system devised by himself. You see things have a way of balancing themselves out as the other guy post 13,942 posts just here on this board alone talking about HIMSELF. The old-time lifer probably made only 5 posts in his entire lifetime. How many hundreds of thousands of dollars do you think that cost? So when you say things like you said earlier this week:

    "
    I think that most APs force the suits' hands by needing to be too aggressive by focusing entirely on generating EV. In a comparison for the sake of measuring the gain it is all made to fall in EV while keeping everything else constant so it can be measured. But you don't have to take the gain as increased EV. You can use it to make casinos more comfortable with your play while still getting the EV of the weaker approach. I always say that I don't use complexity to get more EV. I spend the EV at being able to make money more easily in casinos. All these critical people think the value of complexity is added EV. They are shortsighted and make poor judgement calls. At least if they care about longevity. If they don't then they simply have a different outlook and approach with different goals. We place value on different things. That is just reality."

    Essentially you are saying that most all casinos are willing to let you withdraw from there coffers at much higher rate lifetime that anyone else can. Provided of course when you are playing and not posting.



    Last edited by BoSox; 11-19-2018 at 02:16 PM.

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    I played enough at the table with Zenfighter ( use Halves ) and with my team (use double Halves). Ultimately, the one who sees better won more. ( ST ) . And it was me, with my Hi Lo.
    The one who spreads more wins more.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    He is saying you can't sim Hilo and act like you are simming Halves. Halves bets a whole lot more accurately than Hilo. BC is not betting accuracy. You can get a feel for how accurately a system is by keeping spread, BR, RoR and everything else constant and look at what each systems optimal bets are as recommended by the sim while keeping everything except optimal bet constant. You will see the gain for the more powerful approach as the EV gain. The more accurate system is betting higher bets with the same advantage. That is because more accuracy means less variance which would produce a higher optimal bet. Playing gain doesn't factor in much in shoe games but has a small influence on optimal bets. Almost all of the difference in optimal bets will be from increased betting accuracy in shoe games if the same underplays are used for both systems. I know what Freighter does and what he does is much stronger than generic Halves. He gathers some extra info and uses it for gain both more EV and in other areas of results. Lowering variance while increasing certainty and EV is very powerful. It increases SCORE by both increasing the numerator and decreasing the denominator. It also increases CE. That is more powerful than just increasing the numerator of SCORE (increasing EV). Hilo gets the money but gets less money while taking a much longer period of time to reach a high degree of certainty. I hate big negative swings. They come with big positive swings and the combination causes huge buy-ins and too large of wins. This make you a quick target for the counter catching team. Smaller buy-ins required and lower swings and lower losses and more frequent but smaller wins to make more money in the same number of rounds while reaching certainty in the least number of rounds keeps heat low and profits high. That is worth it in my book. Many just damn the variance and fire away knowing their system will require huge buy-ins and have massive wins and losses while taking a very high number of rounds to reach certainty as the only option. It is one way to do it but I don't think it is the best way. But that is just my perspective.
    You’ve gotta be joking. A 19 is a losing hand vs 20 whether you’re using HiLo or ho2 w/asc or any other count. Any two counts, if played side by side, are going to look damn close to identical. The stuff about negative swings, big buy-ins, etc. is all complete bullshit in reference to comparing 2 different counts. There’s a reason there is a SMALL difference between different systems and not a huge difference like your post implies. Do you have any numbers to support your nonsense claims?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    I suggested Norm to update CVBJ for simultaneous maintenance of two or more systems. That would be very interesting.
    Yes, it would, but it wouldn't cut down on the number of "which count is better" threads.

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Do you have any numbers to support your nonsense claims?
    He will show a chart that appears in Don's book that shows differences that are nothing to sneeze at. The problem is that no two players play exactly the same way even using the same exact systems. Those who take those stats as one size fits all difference in comparing systems in real life play is mistaken.

  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Depends upon how you look at it. If you really want to evaluate this further the longtime pro who used a simple system turned out making more money percentage wise for actual time spent playing the game including research itself than some idiot who uses an ultimate, consummate system devised by himself. You see things have a way of balancing themselves out as the other guy post 13,942 posts just here on this board alone talking about HIMSELF. The old-time lifer probably made only 5 posts in his entire lifetime. How many hundreds of thousands of dollars do you think that cost?
    I post in my spare time. It doesn't affect play or research. I just don't need the added exposure to get high certainty and a high EV. Research does take a lot of time but that comes in spurts and stops. Again I don't miss play to do research. I guess to someone that needs to play a ton to reach certainty this concept is hard to understand. I already feel I say too much when trying to help you all research the right stuff. If I explain more things will be harder for everyone but you keep tasking me to explain more and then say I posted too much when I do and I might scare the casinos into ending opportunities for those that don't research the alleys I expose to them. Not a healthy cycle for you to initiate.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Essentially you are saying that most all casinos are willing to let you withdraw from there coffers at much higher rate lifetime that anyone else can. Provided of course when you are playing and not posting.
    I am saying that that is what has happened in the past. I don't have a crystal ball to say what will happen in the future. I know I expected the BOs I got a year or two before I got them based on the lifetime win others got 86ed at. It may just be that they didn't get the ax for lifetime win. Maybe I didn't either. But I know what amount to expect a lifetime win backoff at every casino I play at because I network with people that are further down the road that believe they got a lifetime win BO. I don't want to say any of my other thoughts that are applicable to this because it may hurt many AP's longevity.

  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Any two counts, if played side by side, are going to look damn close to identical. The stuff about negative swings, big buy-ins, etc. is all complete bullshit in reference to comparing 2 different counts.
    For EV maximizing approaches or RA index approaches gathering less information. But switching priorities from EV to certainty of BR growth and gathering more information and using it in new ways changes things a lot.
    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    There’s a reason there is a SMALL difference between different systems and not a huge difference like your post implies. Do you have any numbers to support your nonsense claims?
    Most don't see the gain because they just look at EV. I don't maximize EV. That is counterproductive. And variance is blind to whether it is from positive or negative swings so variance is a useless stat for flagging improving your variance profile by increasing the ratio of variance from winning and variance from losing. The proof is in the results. The range and frequency of buy-in amounts for a session. The range and frequencies of win and loss amounts for a session. Whether these things are symmetric, right skewed or left skewed when you look at the distribution. What you want is smaller and less frequent losing sessions and smaller and more frequent winning sessions. This will keep your buy-in down and keep you BR growing with more certainty. Tell me what stats show this? That is the problem. Everyone is basing what is best on stats that are not reflective of what is actually best and there are no stats for what is best provided by sim results. People worry about EV which can make you easily detected and variance which sees negative swings and positive swings as the same thing. They should be concerned about what they can do to make more accurate decisions for both betting and playing. People are horribly uncreative on this front. That just want to use ideas that have been around forever rather than innovating what should be obvious to them.

  11. #37
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Three, do you have CVBJ ?
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  12. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Three, do you have CVBJ ?
    If all you want is play-all data there is a link for subscribers in the tool bar.

  13. #39
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    I repeat- Homework for you- configure the Hi Lo system in CVBJ. Adjust the optimal bets for Hi Lo. Start playing using the bug show. You at the same time keep the counting with Halves or Hi Opt 2. How often will the systems disperse? Table 25-500, 6 deck.
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 11-19-2018 at 03:56 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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