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Thread: Is using level 2 count in shoe game an overkill

  1. #40
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    Have played Hiopt2/ASC and Hiopt2/BASC with players that play other systems including Hilo up to level 3 systems. There are always a good bit of difference in advantage assessment. With a hilo player there was a lot. With a level 3 count with 1.0 BC player there was much less difference, except he always raised his bet earlier and lowered his bet earlier. Relatively we assessed advantage pretty similarly. Not so much for Hilo. Often the Hilo better bet big when I assessed a disadvantage or bet minimally when I assessed a big advantage.

  2. #41
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    There are always a good bit of difference in advantage assessment...
    advantage assessment and bets in real game these are two different things...Let's go beyond the textbooks that you successfully quote...Turn on your brains, conduct experiments...By the way, do you agree with me that the counter using the simple count may win more during the year, than counter using a complex count system? Do you have BJRM ?
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 11-19-2018 at 04:20 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    advantage assessment and bets in real game these are two different things...Let's go beyond the textbooks that you successfully quote...Turn on your brains, conduct experiments...
    I was basing this observation on bets at the table in the casino. With fairly constant variance in BJ bet size is reflective of advantage. Now I am not sure what the text books say. . I never found one. I pretty much just read Don's book. I have a lot more books and have read them all a long time ago but I didn't find them particularly useful. Griffins book and Don's book are the best to tell you what you need to know to research BJ further than the books written decades ago. The other books are just for those that don't want to do research or improve on what is quickly becoming obsolete by ever increasing HE and countermeasures. The smaller the EV for your play the more significant the same improvement becomes.

  4. #43
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    .By the way, do you agree with me that the counter using the simple count may win more during the year, than counter using a complex count system? - This is real life ! Do you have BJRM ?
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Griffins book and Don's book are the best to tell you what you need to know to research BJ further than the books written decades ago.
    Where Snyder , "alienated", Brett Harris ? Grosjean ?

    Expand your consciousness...
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 11-19-2018 at 04:38 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  5. #44
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I was basing this observation on bets at the table in the casino.
    1-50 and 25-500 in real casino this are different things...
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  6. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    By the way, do you agree with me that the counter using the simple count may win more during the year, than counter using a complex count system?
    Of curse . Nothing is certain enough to say what will happen when you look at individual instances. All you can do is say what will happen in the long run. None of us will probably play enough rounds in our lifetime to truly reach certainty. Once you cut the time frame to as short as a year anything can happen.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Where Snyder , "alienated", Brett Harris ? Grosjean ?

    Expand your consciousness...
    Grosjean was not to useful for BJ. Or maybe a better way to put it is Grosjean is a lot more useful for other things than BJ. Snyder was wrong too often for me. But I like alienated and Brett Harris on BJ. I learned a lot from both of them. A lot of what I do is extensions of their work. But I don't find a need to reference their work very often. They helped inspire me to blaze new areas nobody had looked into before. Also certain forum members were a big influence in my thinking. They know who they are. I took their pioneering work in new directions.

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    1-50 and 25-500 in real casino this are different things...
    I just watched their spread and compared their level of betting within their spread with my level of betting within my spread. It isn't hard to figure out. It is really quite obvious.

  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    I played enough at the table with Zenfighter ( use Halves ) and with my team (use double Halves). Ultimately, the one who sees better won more. ( ST ) . And it was me, with my Hi Lo.
    Well shuffle tracking is a different matter. That opportunity has more or less gone the way of the dinosaur around here.

  9. #48


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    I've always considered a player should use a counting system that they are most comfortable with and can perform virtually error free. Nothing new there but a Level 2 count with a higher Playing Efficiency than Hi-Lo is useful if a player is flat betting only in positive counts. The house advantage and penetration need to be taken into account but in this case a Level 2 count will generate better results than Hi-Lo.
    Casino Enemy No.1

  10. #49


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I just watched their spread and compared their level of betting within their spread with my level of betting within my spread. It isn't hard to figure out. It is really quite obvious.
    So how Can You increase Certainty for certain if you disregard the term of EV or in other words pay less attention to it? How?
    Do you decrease the spread? Less agressivity at the table? (Spreadwise)



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  11. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ferenc11 View Post
    So how Can You increase Certainty for certain if you disregard the term of EV or in other words pay less attention to it? How?
    Do you decrease the spread? Less agressivity at the table?
    You don't focus on maximizing anything. Getting that last little bit extra on any stat costs way more than it gets.There is somewhat of an asymptotic relationship to chasing that last little bit of a stat in a gain versus cost sense. But I focus on decreasing the ratio of downswing variance to upswing variance and accuracy of decisions. You are familiar with this for RA indices. The EV goes up for doubles and splits as you get further above the index because you win a higher percentage of doubles and splits and lose a lower percentage of doubles and splits. First I do what I can with the information I gather to increase the accuracy of these decisions. That generates more EV for the decision as you aren't doubling some deck compositions when you are actually not gaining EV based on the deck composition and you are making doubles that you would miss that are positive EV without using the info. This better correlation to the decision makes the gain in EV as the TC rises above the index gain EV faster. That means you are winning more of your doubles and splits and losing fewer. For the ones that just wouldn't gain EV fast enough after the index is exceeded despite using multiple combined playing counts to cherry pick the one that gets the best correlation to the decision, I raise the index if the gain at the index is low enough and also for any that have a quick gain in EV but just don't have much EV at the index. Often at the index the gain in EV is almost nothing. With small bets out you can go for that extra penny but with big bets out you should play more aware of getting high quality EV rather than any EV. High quality EV is EV that doesn't have a lower ratio of upswing variance to downswing variance.

    Certainty is about accuracy. It isn't about stats. Variance is a stat that is blind to the difference between upswing contribution to variance and downswing contribution to variance. So variance can be a deceiving statistic. So first gather extra information in a different way so it can be used in a different way that is more useful than the tradition way of gathering and using extra information. I like balanced side counts because they allow for a lot more flexibility when used to form multiple combined counts to pick the best count from for the decision at hand. You not only factor in the tag weight of the side counted card, you also adjust the tag weight of cards counted in your main count to match much more closely with the decision EoRs. Sometimes you bring the side count in just for the adjustment you can make to a key card that is counted way wrong in your main count and the targeted side count card is a near neutral card. Another twist on the traditional that some do is to count neutral cards in a straight side count and look to use the info to fine tune betting by doing the research to use the actual impact on advantage for the deck composition rather than some average over all deck compositions. Averages can be very inaccurate. That is what you are trying to do. Find those outliers that cause downswing variance and fix them while either improving upswing variance or affecting the ratio of upswing variance to downswing variance favorably.

    The result of these things is that higher accuracy gains you more EV. You don't take the gain just as EV gain. You spend most of the gain to selectively reduce the ratio of downsing variance to upswing variance from both inaccurate betting, inaccurate playing, and overly risky plays that are actually additional bets at higher bets. The result is EV doesn't change much but likely shows a small gain. Variance doesn't change much but is caused by a higher ratio of upswing variance to downswing variance which stacks the odds to increase your BR. CE doesn't change much because it is a stat derived from EV and variance, but you tend to spend a lot lore time at or above EV as you accumulate play and a lot less time below EV because the larger swings have been stacked that way and you have increased the accuracy of betting decisions, playing decisions, and the all important playing decisions with big bets out that are also bet increases. This is increased certainty of BR growth. None of the stats change much. It as about seeing beyond the stats and understanding what actually impacts your results in a favorable way. You shouldn't be obsessed with stats. What matters is how your results are affected as you accumulate play. Stats are a good approximation for the traditional approach to counting but you don't have to use the traditional approach. By using new ways of gathering extra information that increases gain after the index is exceeded and/or increases the accuracy of every deviation you make you stray less from results. By stacking larger variance contributors to variance in favor of upswings you increase the likelihood of experience more upswing variance and less downswing variance for the variance your play produces. That will assure you BR growth will be favorable more often than unfavorable as compared to the traditional approach to gathering and using information. The key to doing this is to first gather more information. Second to use it in a different way and use the gain to make playing results more favorable rather than taking everything as EV gain. Often that last little bit of EV maximizing causes quite a bit of damage to certainty of results (the same thing is true with any statistic because the peak tends to cost too much in other important statistics). Spend that last bit of EV that has demising returns on stacking things in your favor when it comes to BR growth as you go forward.

    The result of one or the other approach or both is less frequent and less severe downswings days and more frequent and less severe upswings days. The net result is your BR increases at a much, much more steady rate with few of the outlier crazy swings that seem to be more of the rule when you focus on maximizing EV. You can also add trading a little EV from surrendering at slightly negative EV especially with big bets out. This greatly reduces large swings and affects just variance in general in a favorable way at a minimal impact on EV. Small increase in EV for a defensive split over surrender with a big bet out is a prime candidate for this play.
    Last edited by Three; 11-20-2018 at 07:53 AM.

  12. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    You can quadruple (or better) your hourly win rate by maximizing speed, minimizing amount of players on table, and penetration. Its not always possible but always taking the better scenario will do wonders to push you along to where you want to be.
    At least someone understands my comments about making more money in less time played (or vie versa). Too bad others haven't figured this out. It's about quality hours rather than quantity of hours. Hours are meaningless. Rounds are what the game is measured at and more specifically quality rounds. Mastering maximizing utility of your system will get you more than maximizing the power of your systemm. Of course if you can do both , more power to you.

  13. #52


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    At least someone understands my comments about making more money in less time played (or vie versa). Too bad others haven't figured this out. It's about quality hours rather than quantity of hours. Hours are meaningless. Rounds are what the game is measured at and more specifically quality rounds. Mastering maximizing utility of your system will get you more than maximizing the power of your systemm. Of course if you can do both , more power to you.
    As much as I’m able.....heads up for speed, speed, fast greasy speed.

    https://youtu.be/N0GdQyIm7DU

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