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Thread: Does optimal proportional/Kelly betting have an absolute maximum bet?

  1. #1


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    Does optimal proportional/Kelly betting have an absolute maximum bet?

    I've been playing with various betting schemes (in a spreadsheet) which use desired ROR and total BR to calculate the optimal proportional/Kelly bets at various advantages. Such a scheme doesn't include any absolute maximum bet - as long as the advantage keeps climbing, do does your bet.

    Is this correct, or, to protect your bankroll, is it necessary to set an absolute maximum bet which will not be exceeded no matter how high the count/advantage is?

    I'm not asking about setting a max bet to avoid a conspicuous spread - just asking if there needs to be a mathematical maximum to protect your bankroll.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I've been playing with various betting schemes (in a spreadsheet) which use desired ROR and total BR to calculate the optimal proportional/Kelly bets at various advantages. Such a scheme doesn't include any absolute maximum bet - as long as the advantage keeps climbing, do does your bet.

    Is this correct, or, to protect your bankroll, is it necessary to set an absolute maximum bet which will not be exceeded no matter how high the count/advantage is?

    I'm not asking about setting a max bet to avoid a conspicuous spread - just asking if there needs to be a mathematical maximum to protect your bankroll.
    Short answer: no. But the theory is more or less useless in light of table maximums and the fact that advantage reaches practical limits and constraints due to the nature of the endeavor itself and the fact that one rarely sees true counts that confer advantages much greater than, say, 5%-6%, especially in shoe games.

    Don

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    I'll usually cap out at a certain point at or below 1%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    I'll usually cap out at a certain point at or below 1%.
    Why?

  5. #5


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    I recently bought an even money bet from a whale that is more than 3 times my max max bet
    , way too much for my bankroll but deemed the opportunity too good to miss, suffice to say I lost that bet. That one bet is 8% of my bankroll .,..

    Not sure why is there a need to cap an absolute max though, unless you hit table max. You can always cap it at a fix % of your bankroll (which is dynamic depending on if you are on winning or losing streak), as high as you are comfortable.
    If your hands are trembling and your heart is racing pushing out that bet, then I’d say it’s probably way too high an amount and you don’t want to be incentivized to make less than optimal aka ploppy decisions to protect that bet.


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