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Thread: Need help with strategy on BJ tournament

  1. #1


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    Need help with strategy on BJ tournament

    Rules:
    7 qualifying rounds
    1 final table

    8 players at each table(qualifying)
    10 dollar buy in
    500 dollar prize

    and you can buy extra chips if you choose to

    min bet: 50 cents
    max bet: unlimitted

    exactly 12 rounds are played

    black jack pays 1:1
    no surrender
    dealer stands on soft 17

    single shoe
    6 decks
    dealer cuts very shallow about half a deck

    so my local casino is hosting a bj tournament, and i want to play strategically.
    the other players are absolutley horrible.
    lets not even talk about basic strategy they dont know basic logic
    doubling on 13
    not splittling 8's
    just really obvious stuff that doesnt require more than 2 neurons

    I have watched all the players at this casino i know everyone of them.
    they are all ridiculously bad.

    here is where i need help.

    the tournament starts with 7 tables and the winner of each table qualifies for the finals
    during the qualifying rounds there are unlimitted buy ins each costs 10 bucks
    the prize money is 500 dollars, plus you get back all your buy ins.

    in the finals there are no buy ins.
    everyone starts with the same fixed amount.

    Questions:
    1. Should i just pay the 10 dollar buy in and then buy extra chips, bet the min 50 cents. wait for everyone else to loose there money and qualify?
    2. Say an opponent bets randomly what are the odds they beat me based on standard deviations?
    3. exactly how much money is it worth spending on buying extra chips to qualify for the finals. based on expected value of me winnign the final vs another player.
    4. do i need to make modifications to my playing strategy
    5. do i need to make modifications to my betting strategy

    my plan was just bet the min 50 cents and hope to loose less money than the other players.
    but what if they win money?
    do i then have to make a bet larger than the min,
    there are exactly 12 rounds so i can bet the min untill the last round check how much my opponent has buy chips and beat him?


    I guess some extra info, card counting isnt allowed, but since this casino normally uses automatic shufflers niether the dealers nor the pit boss have been trained on card counting so basically its a free for all. the table for the tournament isnt even under a camera. i know its crazy.

    this is a small town. the casino doesnt really know what they are doing.

    about me: 5 years counting cards, I use a basic hi lo. and i want to win this tournament.

    thanks in advance!

    Lawrence Wellsbourne

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by lawrencewellsbourne View Post
    so my local casino is hosting a bj tournament, and i want to play strategically.
    the other players are absolutley horrible.
    lets not even talk about basic strategy they dont know basic logic
    doubling on 13
    not splittling 8's
    just really obvious stuff that doesnt require more than 2 neurons
    In a tournament there are times when all of these moves are the best strategy. You have to remember you aren't playing against the dealer. You are playing against the other players. There is even a different BS for tournament play. And different strategies depending on the goal for that round. Counting is a waste of brainpower in a BJ tournament. There are far more important and relevant things to think about.

    I will let our local expert on tournament play, Gronbog, take it from there.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Here are the key elements of the tourney which will determine your strategy:

    • 8 players with one advancing in the qualifying round: This means you will need to be aggressive. If you bet the minimum, you have almost no chance of advancing. At least one player and possibly two or three will accumulate more chips than you by betting more, even if they are betting randomly.
    • Only 12 rounds played: this is another factor which suggests being aggressive. You don't have much time to catch up if you fall behind. The low number of rounds is also a good reason why you should not waste your mental resources counting. Keeping track of the bankrolls of the seven other players is a much more important task.
    • You don't say how many chips you get for each $10 buy in: This would normally be a critical factor, since the ratio of the max bet to your bankroll is also a factor for determining your level of aggression. However, since there is no maximum, it doesn't really matter in this case. Everyone gets the same amount for each buy in and it's the relative amount of chips compared to the other players that matters.
    • No limit means that you can afford to be a little more patient when behind, as long as you can catch the leader(s) with a single bet. Do not wait until the final hand to do this. Smart players will cover your win leaving you at a severe disadvantage. Ideally you want to be the chip leader going into the final hand. In no limit tournaments, it is very common for folks to go all-in on the final hand. You want to be the chip leader so that you can bet enough to cover their wins. It is also not uncommon for everyone to go all-in on the final round. You can sometimes win the table by holding back a few chips in case the dealer sweeps the table.
    • It is very common for those behind to double/split almost anything on the final round. If you can bet enough to cover their winning doubles/splits without compromising yourself should you lose, then you should do so.
    • Is this a live money tournament? i.e. do you get $10 for your $10 buy in and do you get to keep any chips you have left at the end? This could make people play slightly more conservatively, especially in the final few hands if they have accumulated a decent amount during the round.


    Given the above observations, here is how I would approach this. You will need to be aggressive, but because it's no limit you can afford to pick the right time to do so:

    • Bet minimum on the first two or 3 rounds. Get a feel for how much everyone else is betting. If you're lucky, you may gain the early lead.
    • During the middle rounds, as long as you can catch the leaders with a single bet, keep betting minimum
    • With about four rounds to go, bet enough to take the lead if everyone wins. If losing would cripple you, then go all-in. Better to continue the fight with a fresh buy in than with only a few chips.
    • If you gain the lead, protect it by trying to bet roughly the same amount as the other players. This can be difficult if some bet big and some bet small. If more than one other player is challenging you by betting big, then try to match their bets. If they are dumb enough to bet before you, then let them, but don't say anything about it.


    Some exceptions to the above:
    • If at any time you are the chip leader, protect your lead by trying to bet the same amount as those challenging you.
    • If at any time at least one player ahead of you has more than double your chips and is betting small, go all-in immediately to get back into it. Do this until you can catch them with a singe bet and then return to the strategy above.
    • If you bust out, consider rebuying if the leader has less than 4 times the amount of chips you get for rebuying. You can catch them with two all-in wins. Even at 8 time the rebuy amount, you can catch them with 3 all-in wins. The rebuy amount ($10) is relatively small, so why not keep trying?


    It's hard to give complete advice, but those are the key things I see in this tournament format. For more complete information, see Wong's "Casino Tournament Strategy", Ken Smith's e-books "How to Win More Blackjack Tournaments" and "How to Win Even More Blackjack Tournaments" and the forums at blackjacktournaments.com.

    Good luck!

  4. #4


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    Great analysis Gronbog,

    I really appreciate your feedback,

    to clarify about buy ins:
    10 dollars = 20,000 chips
    the smallest denomination chip is 500
    and on the penultimate hand the buy in gets you 30,000 chips

  5. #5


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    suppose there is only one other player left in the final round.
    and we have the same number of chips

    i have the unfortunate luck of having to bet first.

    how much do i bet?

    1. All in
    2. half the chips + 1
    3. 1 chip

    NOTE: since buy ins are not allowed on the last hand, that means if i go all in i cant split.

  6. #6


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    On the final hand, betting first and both tied, you should bet the minimum.

    If you bet any more, then a smart opponent will bet less than you and will have a more than 50% chance of beating you. This is because losing a hand of blackjack is a more likely outcome (~49%) than winning (~43%). We call this "taking the low". If instead, you bet the minimum, you give him the opportunity to make a mistake by betting more. If this happens then you lock in this advantage for yourself.

    His best response would be to also bet the minimum. He would then have a slight advantage over you because he gets to play his cards after you and can improve his chances by making appropriate strategic deviations from basic strategy. Note that you can also do this with you own hand based on what you see in his first two cards and the dealer's up card, but because he gets to play last, the deviations he can make will be stronger.

    Although this is a very basic situation, these kinds of things are covered in Wong's book and discussed in detail in the forums at blackjacktournaments.com

  7. #7


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    One further comment. If you are betting first on the final round, then it means you were not betting first on the previous round. In that case you should never ever have made a bet that created the possibility of ending up tied. That's why you were tracking your opponent's bankrolls instead of counting

    [edit]
    Actually, I take that back. If you were both tied on the previous round and he bet the minimum, then you would also bet the minimum as discussed above. That's why I love table games tournaments. There are so many situations to solve, sometimes on the fly at the table. This is why smart strategic play completely trumps counting.
    Last edited by Gronbog; 11-16-2018 at 11:27 AM.

  8. #8


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    this is getting interesting,

    i am definitely appreciating how the emphasis is more on betting strategy rather than basic strategy

    obviously you still need to execute the correct bet (hit or stand), but that isnt gonna win you the tourney.

  9. #9


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by lawrencewellsbourne View Post
    obviously you still need to execute the correct bet (hit or stand), but that isnt gonna win you the tourney.
    Sometimes it does, particularly on the final round of the session. And sometimes the correct play bears no resemblance to basic strategy.

  10. #10


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    suppose for this tourney of 12 rounds and 8 players
    each player starts with 20,000 chips
    each round player plasces a bet of 2,000


    at the end of those 12 rounds what is the distrubution gonna lok like?
    im guessing a bell curve.
    but i want to know what the standard deviation would be.

    anyone good at math?
    what if the they had an expected value of 40%? 49.5%?

  11. #11


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    I guess you wore gronbog out.

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