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Thread: Back offs and countermeasures, need help handling them..

  1. #14
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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    The usual idiots are making it about playing rated when all I posted was sharing my results, back offs, and that I am still trying to figure out what to expect on trips that involve 25 hours of playing (3days) and how much expense makes a trip worthwhile.
    What an ass!!!

    You mean to say the people that have repeatedly, and continuously tried to help me from being my own worst enemy, and are still trying to help me despite me being such an idiot that I thought I knew more than the myriad of real APs that walked the same path I am on before me and were giving me advice that would have helped me avoid or at least stave off my current situation. Like all those that play rated and think they are fooling the casino, you failed to realize they knew exactly what you were doing and were merely tolerating you as long as they didn't view as as a threat or nuisance. Once you start playing for meaningful stakes or they assess you as being a big enough threat they acted against you. It was your stakes and the fact that you game has so many holes in it that made them tolerate you for as long as they did. Then you hit one of the tolerance thresholds. Maybe you won too much. Maybe you overstayed your welcome regularly by not taking the hint it was time to leave. Maybe you visited too frequently or played for too long on some visits. My bet is this post tells the story:
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    The other day, in HL room, down $400 at DD game in about 25 minutes, New dealer comes in and immediately cuts of 2/3 of DD. I pretend not to notice, at end of shoe, I move to the other DD table with 2 others. Immediately, pit lady whispers something and the deck is again cut off 2/3. I leave the HL room, wander around casino a few minutes, sit down at a $10 table. Before the dealer gives me chips, phone rings in pit, pit guy picks it up, glances at me. As the dealer is getting the 6 decks out of the ASM, but rushes over, whispers to dealer, dealer cuts off 3 decks. I leave.
    You clearly didn't get the message it was time to leave even after they took countermeasures. It makes me wonder how many times they gave you not so subtle clues that you had overstayed your welcome and you just kept playing. If they can't train you to stay within tolerances they will always act against you. If you are so clueless that you can't read the signs that they make obvious at most casinos then you can expect them to take more extreme measures.

  2. #15
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    You say you have to play a lot when you make the trip. I have often said I make more money when playing less and described how to make more money with much less exposure. Some were clueless about how that could be but maybe you are starting to get it. You needed to play a certain number of rounds to get your trip certainty up for your results. The higher the percentage of quality rounds in the mix the higher the EV and the fewer the rounds it takes to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results. The casino will tolerate only so much playing time. You need to get the rounds in and don't really care about playing time other than the time needs to be less than their tolerance threshold. Selectively choose your spots for when and where to play to meet all these requirements in the time you are tolerated. I doubt you make any attempt to swing the percentages of quality rounds played in the least amount of time played toward what is best for you. So you have massive exposure and poor quality of rounds played rather than little exposure while getting in more rounds and in particular more quality rounds played for your trip. You probably just go to the casino and plop down at whatever table meets your fancy and play until you leave. That will really hurt the quality of your play.

    Read Don's book. I am talking every chapter very slowly. Then think it isn't about using the info for maximizing EV. The information should be used to maximize your effectiveness while minimizing your exposure at the same time. When you figure out how to do this you will produce more EV and have a higher degree of certainty for your results when you play less time. Less time means less exposure. Less exposure means more longevity. More longevity means making more money. So many AP's are focused on the wrong goals and don't maximize their efficiency at making money for the amount of exposure their play produces. Their approach is best for computer play but is shortsighted when it comes to live casino play.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You say you have to play a lot when you make the trip. I have often said I make more money when playing less and described how to make more money with much less exposure. Some were clueless about how that could be but maybe you are starting to get it. You needed to play a certain number of rounds to get your trip certainty up for your results. The higher the percentage of quality rounds in the mix the higher the EV and the fewer the rounds it takes to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results. The casino will tolerate only so much playing time. You need to get the rounds in and don't really care about playing time other than the time needs to be less than their tolerance threshold. Selectively choose your spots for when and where to play to meet all these requirements in the time you are tolerated. I doubt you make any attempt to swing the percentages of quality rounds played in the least amount of time played toward what is best for you. So you have massive exposure and poor quality of rounds played rather than little exposure while getting in more rounds and in particular more quality rounds played for your trip. You probably just go to the casino and plop down at whatever table meets your fancy and play until you leave. That will really hurt the quality of your play.

    Read Don's book. I am talking every chapter very slowly. Then think it isn't about using the info for maximizing EV. The information should be used to maximize your effectiveness while minimizing your exposure at the same time. When you figure out how to do this you will produce more EV and have a higher degree of certainty for your results when you play less time. Less time means less exposure. Less exposure means more longevity. More longevity means making more money. So many AP's are focused on the wrong goals and don't maximize their efficiency at making money for the amount of exposure their play produces. Their approach is best for computer play but is shortsighted when it comes to live casino play.
    that

    Very good post for the most part. However, if anything, the players card helped with longevity as there is significantly more heat and more back offs playing anonymously. The card continues to provide me benefits.

    The tips about longevity helps as I embark on a higher mix of anonymous play. So far, the fact that locally, I can no longer play at the 3 playable casinos is bad. I was playing short sessions, keeping wins to small amounts and enjoying knowing the dealers and pit folks and other regulars. I hate missing that. It seems surveillance has told them to take counter measures soon as I sit at any table.

    A formula to help plan trips is what I need first. Playing with a max bet of $200, how many hours of play is needed for $500 in expenses to be covered and provide an EV of $40+ an hour. If I took 5 trips of 3-4 days to Lax Vegas, played 25 hours each trip, spent $2000 (for all 5 trips), would it be worth it? Also,where else could I go where there are several casinos and expenses under $500? Tunica seems the only place possible in Winter.

  4. #17


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    I basically had to take ten years off because of this. In 20/20 hindsight I wish i would not have bet as high and played as often and kept my spreads more polite. I'm just getting back into things now at a lower bet level. I burned everything local, then everything I could drive to, and half the places in vegas. It is amazing once you are tagged it kind of never goes away though. I always play Unrated now.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    If they can't train you to stay within tolerances they will always act against you
    i would disagree this statement. Once they Id you for whatever reason they will act . It is just when and if it is needed .

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    So you have massive exposure and poor quality of rounds played rather than little exposure while getting in more rounds and in particular more quality rounds played for your trip.
    True , three . Sometimes it is just not enough though .

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatian View Post
    Sleath's admonition of proper cover disregards the fact that the majority of counters in the real world do not have the bankroll to incorporate the complex cover that is required to increase and even maintain longevity.
    No, I did not ignore it.

    I would refer you to my post that says clearly that red chippers can not afford cover and that green chippers can afford little cover. Effective (Increasing longevity) cover is not free and generally will pressure EV and increase variance.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #21


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    There's something nobody has mentioned yet, so I will. The MO casinos are doing the OP a favor. Given how well he has documented the mediocre games he plays, rules, sub-optimal spread, misplays, etc., he's at least 1 SD above expectation, if not more. So by limiting his play, MO style, they're preventing themselves from getting their money back from him.

  9. #22


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    On another note, when on a trip, playing anonymously, do you play till you get backed off or do you quit a good game before being backed off?

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    On another note, when on a trip, playing anonymously, do you play till you get backed off or do you quit a good game before being backed off?
    The act, timing and combination of venue are an art form. Think of it as good sex.

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    Once they Id you for whatever reason they will act . It is just when and if it is needed .
    I never think I am fooling anyone. I allow them the leeway to let me play without getting in trouble with their superiors. If I am wrong about that I am very good at fooling them. They seem to make it clear they know I am counting. At least that is how I read it. I just use a modest spread and less threatening top bet. I make really good EV without needing to be more aggressive. I do what I can to keep swings down which makes me look more nonthreatening. But I figure they know what I am doing but don't care as long as they won't get in trouble for not caring. Of course this varies by casino. I don't think they believe I am bad at it. I think they see that I make sure they can look the other way without getting in trouble by keeping my spread down to 10:1 for shoe games for all appearances. And keeping my top bet well below half the table max. And I make sure my bets don't move with the count and I make lots of plays that normal counts don't even have indices for. When I have stayed too long they give not so subtle hints that it is time to go. But they don't act. After enough clues you know when to leave and they don't have to give them anymore. They have trained me to play within what they are comfortable with.

    I figure I add to the drop and they feel I give them a good shot at my money and never get greedy enough for them to worry about me ruining their shift, day, week, or month. I might win an outlier amount in one shoe but then I leave. I don't try for another dip into their trough before leaving. Each casino is different but I have always been able to figure out how to be tolerated without forcing them to act against me. I think that most APs force the suits' hands by needing to be too aggressive by focusing entirely on generating EV. In a comparison for the sake of measuring the gain it is all made to fall in EV while keeping everything else constant so it can be measured. But you don't have to take the gain as increased EV. You can use it to make casinos more comfortable with your play while still getting the EV of the weaker approach. I always say that I don't use complexity to get more EV. I spend the EV at being able to make money more easily in casinos. All these critical people think the value of complexity is added EV. They are shortsighted and make poor judgement calls. At least if they care about longevity. If they don't then they simply have a different outlook and approach with different goals. We place value on different things. That is just reality.

  12. #25


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    in a nutshell Three it does sound well put together . To do it with all the that effort it is not effective use of one's time if one's sole intention is to make $. I still understand why you think it is a good idea but it is not for most players IMO.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    in a nutshell Three it does sound well put together . To do it with all the that effort it is not effective use of one's time if one's sole intention is to make $. I still understand why you think it is a good idea but it is not for most players IMO.
    Like I said different perspectives and approaches put different values on things. I think what the slash and burn players do is crazy and shortsighted and they think I am just wasting EV. From each of our perspectives we are both right.

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