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Thread: Back offs and countermeasures, need help handling them..

  1. #53


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I am still trying to figure out what to expect on trips that involve 25 hours of playing (3days) and how much expense makes a trip worthwhile.
    As far as gaming results go you cannot expect any meaningful results from 25 hours of play.

  2. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I am still trying to figure out what to expect on trips that involve 25 hours of playing (3days) and how much expense makes a trip worthwhile.
    As long as you think in hours played rather than rounds played and in particular quality rounds played you will have trouble getting an accurate assessment of what to expect. The 100 rounds/hour average everyone uses for their hourly can be very much outdone or be a very generous estimate depending on how well you mange the effectiveness of time played. You just need to know where and when to play. That takes a lot of scouting. Trust your scouting when deciding whether a game is good enough. If your scouting says there is a high likelihood you will find a better game keep looking for that better game. Factors to weigh into the decision are the availability of games. If you are in a place where there are not many gaming options just don't play the crap and wait for better games. All EV is not created equal. Some come at a big price to longevity, certainty, and/or time to get to certainty (In a trip it is about getting to a higher degree of certainty. That means a higher percentage of quality rounds to generate the EV and certainty desired to stack the odds you will be ahead at the end of the trip). If you are in a gaming mecca with many games to choose from and many casinos to visit try to find the best games when your scouting says the likelihood is high they are available.

    So to answer your question. The expectation on a 25 hour trip greatly depends on the quality of hours played. If they are poor quality you might play 1250 rounds in 25 hours. If the are all high quality you might play 5000+ rounds in that time. A mix will be somewhere in-between. Don't forget quality is about playing as high a percentage of advantage rounds as possible while playing the most rounds possible in the least amount of time (exposure). The more negative counts you play through (negative EV your play generates) the bigger your spread has to be to overcome that drag to EV. Larger spreads make you appear to be more of a threat. It is usually better to leave the table than play through the stuff that is negative EV and makes you have to play in a way that makes you appear to be more of a threat. You can't find a great game while you are eating a negative expectation shoe that makes you need a larger spread to win have the same EV. People use counting systems to be able to use a smaller spread by making more accurate decisions, but approaches to play can do the same thing for a simple approach player. Hilo's achilles heal is negative counts. That is where it gives up the most ground to more complicated approaches. Hilo doesn't make accurate decisions in negative counts but makes better decisions in positive counts. Hilo needs a larger spread to get the same EV when it plays through negative counts, but if you just play through positive counts the difference is reduced. Often a very effective way to improve your play is to improve the approach you use with your count rather than consider switching counts. If you feel the need to play through more negative counts switching counts may be the better option, but that is a personal decision that varies by the individual. That is one of the reasons many Hilo users play a more complicated approach for DD. In shoe games they limit the exposure to Hilo's weak points while maximizing Hilo's strengths. But in DD and SD they can't get away with doing that as much so they understand a more complicated system will fit their DD and SD approach to play better rather than being exposed to Hilo's weaknesses all too often.

  3. #55


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You say you have to play a lot when you make the trip. I have often said I make more money when playing less and described how to make more money with much less exposure. Some were clueless about how that could be but maybe you are starting to get it. You needed to play a certain number of rounds to get your trip certainty up for your results. The higher the percentage of quality rounds in the mix the higher the EV and the fewer the rounds it takes to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results. The casino will tolerate only so much playing time. You need to get the rounds in and don't really care about playing time other than the time needs to be less than their tolerance threshold. Selectively choose your spots for when and where to play to meet all these requirements in the time you are tolerated. I doubt you make any attempt to swing the percentages of quality rounds played in the least amount of time played toward what is best for you. So you have massive exposure and poor quality of rounds played rather than little exposure while getting in more rounds and in particular more quality rounds played for your trip. You probably just go to the casino and plop down at whatever table meets your fancy and play until you leave. That will really hurt the quality of your play.

    Read Don's book. I am talking every chapter very slowly. Then think it isn't about using the info for maximizing EV. The information should be used to maximize your effectiveness while minimizing your exposure at the same time. When you figure out how to do this you will produce more EV and have a higher degree of certainty for your results when you play less time. Less time means less exposure. Less exposure means more longevity. More longevity means making more money. So many AP's are focused on the wrong goals and don't maximize their efficiency at making money for the amount of exposure their play produces. Their approach is best for computer play but is shortsighted when it comes to live casino play.
    This above-quoted post I believe is important and deserves further discussion specifically on the topic of exposure and length of play. Let's break the post down further as I disagree with much of the above quote. But I do not disagree with the EV concepts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You say you have to play a lot when you make the trip. I have often said I make more money when playing less and described how to make more money with much less exposure.
    Three, we are talking about an inconsequential short trip here or did you mean otherwise? Because you like anyone else can have a losing trip "regardless of the amount". When you use the term with much less exposure I believe it does apply to your own unique situation considering you have previously stated:

    "
    And I make sure my bets don't move with the count and I make lots of plays that normal counts don't even have indices for."

    Exposure has much less meaning to you as long as you do not get greedy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Some were clueless about how that could be but maybe you are starting to get it. You needed to play a certain number of rounds to get your trip certainty up for your results. The higher the percentage of quality rounds in the mix the higher the EV and the fewer the rounds it takes to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results.
    Terms like getting trip certainty results up, and a higher percentage of quality rounds, and the fewer the rounds it takes "on a three-day trip"
    to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results and calling others clueless is unbelievable. You seem to be suggesting that he also do some wonging in is that correct? I have no problem with that as I do this myself but with it comes much more possibility of exposure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The casino will tolerate only so much playing time. You need to get the rounds in and don't really care about playing time other than the time needs to be less than their tolerance threshold. Selectively choose your spots for when and where to play to meet all these requirements in the time you are tolerated.
    Three, you think for longevity purposes the more hours an unknown to the casino card counter plays during a short visit will likely reach a casino time threshold and be given the boot. An example are you saying that a card counter playing 6 hours of play at 50 hph total 300 hands is more likely to get the boot because the eye saw 6 hours of his play? Versus a comparable card counter playing heads up for 1.5 hours at the same 300 hands played will likely be welcome back to play again? Now the last thing I want to be doing is getting 50 hph "I prefer playing with one other player" and I realize the much larger EV advantage that the heads up player is getting. Although all I see is possibly the 6-hour player getting the boot while still playing and the heads up player getting the boot upon his return visit. Actually, it is, in my opinion, a much easier read to get on the heads up player as it was all gift wrapped and easy to follow when evaluating. Anyone playing heads up fast regardless of session time will be easy to follow what they are doing exception yourself. Evaluating the six-hour player will often be like watching paint dry. Of course, the less time spent in a casino the better, but it really boils down to how much of a threat you are.
    Last edited by BoSox; 11-18-2018 at 11:33 AM.

  4. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Three, you think for longevity purposes the more hours an unknown to the casino card counter plays during a short visit will likely reach a casino time threshold and be given the boot. An example are you saying that a card counter playing 6 hours of play at 50 hph total 300 hands is more likely to get the boot because the eye saw 6 hours of his play?
    No. I am saying if you sit there for 6 hours they have a lot more time to decide to review your play than if you play a lot less. Once they review the number of rounds become an issue. Triggering a review is more a function of time. The idea you are trying to nitpick is about avoiding a review all together versus a higher likelihood of triggering a review of your play. Once they decide to review your play the number of rounds they have to look at is more of a concern.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Actually, it is, in my opinion, a much easier read to get on the heads up player as it was all gift wrapped and easy to follow when evaluating.
    That is if you play like a computer. You don't have to do that to be effective.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Anyone playing heads up fast regardless of session time will be easy to follow what they are doing exception yourself.
    The same cover betting I use in BJ works for any count. My count does not enter into any cover belying decisions.
    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Of course, the less time spent in a casino the better, but it really boils down to how much of a threat you are.
    No, it boils down to how much of a threat you appear too be. That can be quite different to how much of a threat you are. That is the point of using cover.

  5. #57


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    Well, the the heat/counter measure issue is old as Mr. Thorp 1st public his finding. This is cat and mouse game going on with no end. For those who think cover is waste of time or over blown then do it at your own risk. Like someone said "I speeding all the time but get no ticket". If I was a casino manager/owner I would follow the El's way to handle it: offer good game but back off the counters even if not so obvious. We heard many stories about non counters got B.O. Some of the veteran posters on this forum and other forums publicly said they are no longer able to play. One of my local casino just simply move the cut card to 65% of all games that make many "haft baked" counters stay away but the ploppies still fill in the tables, even on 6/5 bj and ASM keep hands per hour the same. In case of Zee or other similar to Zee I think casino should politely said "Mr. Zee, we welcome you to our casino, we offer dozens of table games and hundreds of slot games but no BJ for you" no more phone calls form EIS or PB to PB as they have many things to do. My 2C

  6. #58


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    Zee, there is no guarantee any trip will be a winning one. You can make 5 trips and lose on all of them. However, keeping good records will help determine how much you will probably win. What is your average win per hour played? Lets assume you average $50 an hour from past playing history. Then lets assume a trip will cost you $700 and you make 7 trips with each trip yielding 25 hours of play. Seven trips at 25 hours each of blackjack play will give you a total of 175 hours of play, and at $50 an hour you will have a gross win of $8,750. Then lets subtract expenses of $4,900 ($700 x 7) and we have a profit of $3,850.

    There is a nice little program called "Blackjack Risk Manager" that gives probability of being ahead after so many hours of play. It is easy to use, but I don't know where to buy it anymore. Just a few years ago John Auston was just asking for a donation of any amount and you could download it. Anyway, I don't know if the program will work on Windows 10. I had it on my Windows XP computer and still have it on my laptop Windows 7 computer. Maybe somebody here knows where you can still get it. I don't know where my disk is.

    I think Jon Austin passed away sometime ago (hope I'm wrong). His was the first BJ analyzer I purchased about 25-30 years ago. Jon was very good at answering questions by phone before the internet!

  7. #59


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    I'm happy to tell you that John is very much alive!

    Don

  8. #60


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I'm happy to tell you that John is very much alive!

    Don
    Good news indeed! Maybe I had him confused with Don S. lol

  9. #61


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    Why would someone say crap like that . seems not appropiate.

  10. #62


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Other than the youngster (who always comes in my thread, I am his addiction) many interesting ideas. Now, to explain again, unlike most of you, I play BJ for a number of reasons and making a small profit is just one of them. I played locally at 2-3 casinos for 4 years (before counter measures took place, probably because 2 of the casinos changed hands, to Boyd's and another) and mostly because I enjoyed the company of regulars, dealers and pit folks. The local casinos were like the bar in "Cheers" and because I aS winning too, it felt like the drinks were free. I kept my winnings low hoping for longevity.

    As for Freightman's about keeping expenses low, I try to do it but the RT flight costs about $250, the rental car about $150 and the rest is miscellaneous. The rooms are comped for 3 nights.

    Unfortunately, trips have to be a max of 3 nights cause of family and other responsibilities.

    I am learning from BJA3 about camouflage, misplays and stuff that I will try and incorporate.

    I posted because I now have to change from 4 years of playing in MO, Tunics and Las Vegas. Find new locations, change style of play, leArn to handle back offs and countermeasures.
    i have no idea how you're paying so much for a 3 day rental
    i rarely pay more than 150 for an entire week in vegas
    50 a day is absurd

  11. #63


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    Quote Originally Posted by tomf23 View Post
    i have no idea how you're paying so much for a 3 day rental
    i rarely pay more than 150 for an entire week in vegas
    50 a day is absurd
    It's actually 4 days car rental since I pick up my car on a Thursday night, return on Monday night. Some weekends it's more expensive at the airport. About $250 in airline flight, another $40 to park my car at my home airport, and a bit over $$200 for car rental and lodging/ meals makes a trip to Lax Vegas about $500-$550.

  12. #64


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    Invest in a membership at Costco. $55. bucks and the car rental discount covers all of that and more. Book your rental when you book your flight. Check prices every couple of weeks, they most likely will go down towards your travel date. Example.....booked a full size for 4-days at $128 kept checking back and re-booked/canceled a couple of times. Last time was for a full size that dropped to $72 bucks for 4-days. It is worth the membership to get the discount.

  13. #65
    Senior Member SteinMeister's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    .... It is really dumb (for the casinos) to say don't play here and then (they) make sure you can't play anywhere else.
    I've often thought this very thing: why wouldn't a casino want you to play elsewhere after backing you off???

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