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Thread: Question for Stealth

  1. #1


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    Question for Stealth

    Stealth,

    I'm a rookie counter playing in the Boston area casinos like Springfield and the Twin Rivers properties. I'm playing off a 10k bankroll with a 1 to 16 spread. Although RoR will be fairly high, N0 will be tolerable. What advice can you give myself and other players on camouflaging our betting so we preserve longevity? I'm thinking betting 8 units off the top of the shoe and leaving it out there until it loses, then dropping back to 1 unit. Will that throw the casino off my scent? In so far as camo plays are concerned I don't believe in them.

    In so far as projecting ROI, do you think it makes sense to take a weighted average of the various games available and then forecast ROI based on how many hours I feel I will play at each casino? According to my calculations investors are looking at around a 30% ROI if I win at the projected simulation rate with a 20% RoR (I realize this is high but I have to overbet my BR due to a high table minimum). Does that sound about right?

    Thanks,
    MJ

  2. #2


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    Not about to publish detail thoughts on camo on an open forum. PM me if you want to talk about it.

    You will learn that longevity is more important than the EV you give up for cover. Also understand that with an adequate bankroll you can develop some techniques that do not give away a lot of EV but provide very good cover. Your comments about not believing in camo bets is indictative for a "rookie" counter.

    In regards to your comments regarding ROI:

    1. No I do not determine EV in that loose a manner. Every game we play has a defined betting protocol suited to the specific games and its rules and pen. I don't track hours, I track rounds played, hours are meaningless.
    2. You should understand that EV from the sims assume you are playing perfectly, which never happens. Consider that actual will be about 75-85% of EV at N0 for 2SD. What about expenses?
    3. As my grandfather would say, don't go bear hunting with a BB gun. Your bankroll is NOT adequate for an investor/player team concept. Accept it, re-thinkit and fix it.
    3. You plan is suicidal. I hope your investor is not a good friend because after this event you have about a 50/50 chance he will not be.

    Do not intend any disrespect but hope you can seek out a mentor and spend some time develop your experience before jumping off this cliff.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Your comments about not believing in camo bets is indictative for a "rookie" counter.
    From what he said it looks like he is open to sub optimal betting for camo/cover. He said he doesnt believe in camo plays which i take to mean playing strategy cover.

    I agree with that sentiment. I dont believe the pit/surveilance is that dumb to think i dont even know correct BS. As far as im concerned thats just shooting yourself in the foot for no good reason. If i can convince them im not a counter thats good enough. I dont need them to think im an idiot.

    The only exception to that is refraining from certain index plays like splitting 10s but i dont even really classify that as cover although i guess it could be.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by angle_sh00ter View Post
    I dont believe the pit/surveilance is that dumb to think i dont even know correct BS.
    If you know perfect basic strategy, you would then be in the minority of the players.

    Call it what you like, camo of betting or playing decisions can be useful but you must be able to afford them.

    You can not camo anything if you are a red chipper with a commensurate bankroll.

    Borderline ability to camo if green chipper with moderate bankroll.

    Less than 1% RoR with large bankroll and longevity dictates betting policy, then you can do some creative things. Designing them and evaluating their impact (EV) is a necessary part of the equation. It not just a binary camo move but must include a frequency of how many and a trigger for when. Think out of the box.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If you know perfect basic strategy, you would then be in the minority of the players.
    Yeah im well aware of that. My point is that if its gotten to the stage where they are concerned someone is a counter, you thinking you can throw them off by appearing to not know how to play isnt going to be fooling anyone.

    Similarly after being identified as a long term BJ winner at a property, introducing a few cover plays into the mix will not do much to deter them from taking action.

    Ill concede that arguably in the early stages if you appear to not know what you are doing it may buy you a little bit of extra time between when you sit down and when upstairs get involved. But that is the extent of it.

    Once you are pegged as a winning player your cover plays wont save you. And the main thing that will get you noticed as a winning player is the way you move your chips with the count. Thats just my experience and from what ive been told by several pit bosses.

  6. #6


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    Anyway the question was addressed to you so ill bow out.

  7. #7


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    8 units to start a shoe and dropping to one unit seems way too much but I don't know. For me, 2 units at top is high enough. I would think far more detail is necessary before getting good advice. A 22 year old may need a different cover, gender and race may dictate cover, act and where one plays might need different cover. I am interested in acts and cover plays but it's not often that the subject is discussed.

    I tend to vary, two hands to start one shoe, one hand the next, randomly switching number of hands, varying bet amounts at each count, starting shoes with 1 or two units, some border line displays when heat is acute, stuff like that.

    I realize that the question is to Stealth and involves bigger bets and HL rooms than my $25-$200 bet ranges but hopefully folks would share how they play under heat.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I am interested in acts and cover plays but it's not often that the subject is discussed.
    That is because once something is discussed in the open it becomes a way to profile counters instead of cover. Someone put in a book to only raise bets after a loss and lower bets after a win as a good cover play. A long time later doing this was a sign you were a counter. Cover is simple. Anything "all counters do" can identify you. If you don't want to be identified don't do it, at least not predictably. Anything a counter would do is something that ploppies might do from time to time by coincidence. Your job is to figure out how to "not do what counters do" at an acceptable expense. You should know the cost of any cover before you use it.

    Counter catchers have a short list of plays to watch to identify counters by them playing them differently in a short span of time. These plays are high frequency matchups with a near zero index so they can quickly expect to see you play the hand on either side of the index without much of a time investment. If you play the matchup differently often enough or at all that is your first strike. 16vT is the perfect hand for this tool for identifying counters so it is at the top of the list. It is one of the most common matchups and the index is 0 and is said to be one of the most valuable deviations in the I18 (of course it is only there because BS is such a horrible play for a counter). They also identify counters by moving their bets with the count. Figure out what they are looking for and how not to do that without hurting your EV much if at all. Insurance is an easy one as you can't reach the index in the first few rounds in shoe games, so no counter takes insurance in the first few rounds. But cover is only effective if you have an audience.

    I have one place that uses insurance as a primary way to identify counters. If you take insurance deeper in the shoe you will be automatically evaluated. So your choice is to never take insurance or take insurance when they automatically know it is not plus EV. You get the idea. Each place is different. Some places have side bets that correlate to the main count so you make their job easy when you have a big bet out and suddenly start betting the side bet. You are a counter. You know how to spot a counter. Ask yourself, what would confuse you? Then ask, how you can do that at a minimal cost? Know the cost, and that you can afford it then get creative. If they are looking for a reason to act there isn't much you can do about it but you should try to make it hard for them. But if they are looking for reasons to let you play make sure they have no problem finding them.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by angle_sh00ter View Post
    Ill concede that arguably in the early stages if you appear to not know what you are doing it may buy you a little bit of extra time between when you sit down and when upstairs get involved. But that is the extent of it.
    First, you keep giving me reasons it won't work after the damage has already been done.

    Next, it is not as simple as either of us have documented here. There is not a one size fits all and persona plays a large role. Most new counters go firing away and get backed off very early in their playing career.

    The type of play I am recommending is for a new player (or a AP playing out of his market area) to establish his playing person. Unless you implemented a "cover" program prior to getting identified as one, how would you know how much longer it would allow you to play?

    Cover for double deck is not the same as cover for shoes. There is no EV if you can't play, so my view of the cost of cover suggest you must do it, within the confines I defined before.

    Cumulative win has no cover, you are toast.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  10. #10


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Cover is simple. Anything "all counters do" can identify you.
    Three,

    Cover is not necessarily simple. You have the most complex counting system known and it all was designed and done for a reason. The same can be said for cover. Don't dismiss the value OR THE NEED TO DESIGN THE PLAY. You spent a shitload of time developing your system in search of its value. The same can be done with cover as an vauable additive.

    You can't go play and get backed off to determine what they are looking for. Rarely will you know. You must have a proactive plan to overcome the issue. Your example of insurance is a good one. If you don't already know what they are looking for then trying to design cover is a waste of time.

    It goes without saying that you must understand the cost AND BENEFIT of what you are doing.

    And finally, THERE IS NO FOOLPROOF COVER! and I am certainly not suggesting otherwise. There are, however, ways to extend your ability to play if planned and executed properly and if done before you have been ID'd and characteristzed as an AP.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Stealth,

    I'm a rookie counter playing in the Boston area casinos like Springfield and the Twin Rivers properties. I'm playing off a 10k bankroll with a 1 to 16 spread. Although RoR will be fairly high, N0 will be tolerable. What advice can you give myself and other players on camouflaging our betting so we preserve longevity? I'm thinking betting 8 units off the top of the shoe and leaving it out there until it loses, then dropping back to 1 unit. Will that throw the casino off my scent? In so far as camo plays are concerned I don't believe in them.

    In so far as projecting ROI, do you think it makes sense to take a weighted average of the various games available and then forecast ROI based on how many hours I feel I will play at each casino? According to my calculations investors are looking at around a 30% ROI if I win at the projected simulation rate with a 20% RoR (I realize this is high but I have to overbet my BR due to a high table minimum). Does that sound about right?

    Thanks,
    MJ

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    In regards to your comments regarding ROI:

    1. No I do not determine EV in that loose a manner. Every game we play has a defined betting protocol suited to the specific games and its rules and pen. I don't track hours, I track rounds played, hours are meaningless.
    2. You should understand that EV from the sims assume you are playing perfectly, which never happens. Consider that actual will be about 75-85% of EV at N0 for 2SD. What about expenses?
    3. As my grandfather would say, don't go bear hunting with a BB gun. Your bankroll is NOT adequate for an investor/player team concept. Accept it, re-thinkit and fix it.
    3. You plan is suicidal. I hope your investor is not a good friend because after this event you have about a 50/50 chance he will not be.

    Do not intend any disrespect but hope you can seek out a mentor and spend some time develop your experience before jumping off this cliff.
    MJ1, I agree with what Stealth had to say, but would like to add a little more. Never mind thinking that you can start a shoe with an 8 unit bet and leave it out there if you win the hand. For the majority of time, you will be playing quarter tables "at those two casinos that you stated" with a 10k bank. Not to mention you will be using a 1 to 16 spread with a total of 25 max bets of $400 in your playing bank. Please stop dreaming and get back to reality.
    Last edited by BoSox; 11-12-2018 at 12:36 PM.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    What advice can you give myself and other players on camouflaging our betting so we preserve longevity?
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    You can not camo anything if you are a red chipper with a commensurate bankroll.
    Agreed. Play every hand correctly. Do NOT put out a couple hundred on first hand of shoe for cover. Red chippers don't need any cover bets, the casino will only care about you if you win thousands.

    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    According to my calculations investors are looking at around a 30% ROI if I win at the projected simulation rate with a 20% RoR (I realize this is high but I have to overbet my BR due to a high table minimum). Does that sound about right?
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Your bankroll is NOT adequate for an investor/player team concept. Accept it, re-thinkit and fix it.
    If you set a realistic goal like you'll stop at $3000 and split the profits, yeah that sounds about right. Make sure your investor friend understands and accepts this is for fun. Agree on a certain amount you'll stop at if you lose. Lookup Hail Mary Bankroll on bj21.com this is the gambit you're entering into.

  13. #13


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    Makes a lot of sense, Reign Man. Have you been doing this for a long time?

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