If there is roughly 21 to 1 chance of getting blackjack at the beginning of a shoe, how would one go about calculating how that probability increases with the TC?
If a casino offers, say, 18 to 1 on a side bet for blackjack, when would/would that become a playable bet? Or at least a bet of camouflage value.
The Riverside casino in Laughlin offers a side bet on blackjack, but only on the first hand. However, there is a progressive meter which may make this bet profitable if it gets high enough. (at least they did when I was there last)
https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...nus-blackjack/
Email: [email protected]
Single deck looks almost impossible to shuffle track.Originally Posted by Bubbles
Email: [email protected]
Purplemoon,
If the BJ SB pays 18-to-1, and you win it once every 19 times, or 5.26% of the time, you'll break even.
If you click the link below and scroll down to my "8D Answers" post:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...%20probability
you'll see that, for an 8D game, at a HiLo TC of +3 and above, the BJ probability exceeds 5.26%.
In general, if the payoff is n-to-1, then the break-even BJ probability is 1/(n+1).
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Thanks for the replies.
Dog Hand, that was the information I was looking for, thanks very much for taking the time. My subscription ran out so I can't access that post but I'm going to re-subscribe and explore the math.
Three, I hadn't considered they would use the SB to peg me. My last outing had a ploppy stand up and walk off due to my 12 vs 4 index play, berating me for not knowing how to play, the other players kindly suggested I stand in future. I tend to play up to this behaviour claiming I use my intuition. The next round the dealer actually paused on my hard 17 and wanted me to confirm my play...., I assume he thought I was a ploppy not a counter, either that or he was being ironic. I figured I could do something similar in the future with certain side bets i.e allow myself to play them occasionally due to "peer pressure"...
As a rookie (100 hours played) I'm wondering about the chain of command in the casino. Does the dealer or pit boss alert surveillance? or is it a two-way street? I played far more aggressively after being classed as a ploppy by the dealer, however this may have been presumptuous behaviour.
Some places absolutely do this. Others don't seem to do it.
Usually dealers don't care if you count, especially if you are not a stiff. But some do. Most just want to get paid and know a lot of their pay comes from players and don't want to suffer a pay cut to help the casino that pays them less than minimum wage. They follow procedures. The way they follow procedures can tell you a lot. like is the cheques play call a frantic scream across the pit or made in a more under their breath kind of thing. Not to sound like a racist but asian women dealers seem to align with the casino a lot more than most dealers. I think it may be a cultural thing where traditional asian women feel like they are sort of indentured to a master and they sign the casino that role. The more americanized female asian dealers seem to be more like the typical dealers.
The Floor usually alerts the pit boss, or surveillance, or surveillance alerts the Floor. If suddenly the Floor ignores things at your table that should cause some interest he may have gotten the call that surveillance is watching you or made the call to get surveillance to watch you and is purposely trying to make you drop your guard by making you feel like they aren't paying an attention to you. It is always safest to assume you have an audience, especially when it looks like nobody is paying any attention to what should get their attention.
I hear dealers whisper I think this guy is counting on rare occasions. The Floor usually hangs around for a while and decides for themselves. They always have plenty of reason to think I am not counting and let me play. Sometimes they will try something that should rattle counters to see your reaction, like cutting very fat. If you react like a counter you confirm their suspicions. If you act like nothing changed and keep playing you may see things change back. If things don't change back don't stay too much longer because they are trying to see if they can get you to leave voluntarily rather than act against you. They will act if you force the issue. If they feel they can train you on when they feel they have had a shot at your money and don't want you to play anymore they may tolerate you for a long time. Eventually you will learn when to leave before they start hinting you have overstayed your welcome. Casinos like drop and counters contribute a lot to drop. Counters also can help get people to play tables they wouldn't play if they were empty. Once tables get crowded they probably would rather have someone else in the seat. But some casinos are very intolerant and will back off a bunch of ploppies just to make sure no counters get to play. It is best to just avoid such places when they are identified. The smart casinos know how to use counters to help them with certain goals. If they can train you to be a counter that does that without overstaying your welcome or getting greedy they will have a sort of symbiotic relationship with you. You get to play for a while and contribute to their drop while giving them a shot at your money and helping empty tables fill up with players. Once they feel they have used you for what suits them they want you to leave. If you do and don't get greedy causing them to worry you being there might wreck their shift, day, or week many casinos will tolerate you within the parameters they set.
Last edited by Three; 11-12-2018 at 09:37 AM.
Are you a stiff or do they shuffle away their tips voluntarily? I know many things are regional. I usually don't stop in Nevada to play when heading West to play. My comments are more based on play East of the Mississippi. It has been a long time since what is offered in Nevada seemed worth the trip to me.
Both. As a result of their actions, I never tip in NV, but their behavior came first.
Example - had one over the summer at PH Tahoe, playing DD in HL at a $100 table. There was another player at the table betting chunky black and tipping generously. I came along, sat down and played one black chip the first 2 "shoes" as the count went nowhere. Never sat out or raised my bet. Third shoe, as soon as I parlayed a second chip to my bet, he shuffled, a little less than one deck in. I got up and left.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks