Considering trying full-time

[blue_phantom]

I think if you've seriously played casually for 6 years already, have 40k, don't like your current job, and enjoy being on the road, you should go pro. If you experience extremely bad fluctuation, it's okay to quit temporarily, you're young anyway. With 40k, you can generate acceptable EV with a low ROR.
My suggestions:
Make sure you're very good at the game, read lots of books, learn the game extensively, not only good at counting but good at everything.

It’s 40k of OP’s savings after years of working in a cubicle. Are you really ok to use all that as BR? Granted he has no liabilities, doesn’t pay rent and it wouldn’t be the end of world to lose all that. But are you mentally ready for that ? I worked similar number of years and has around the same range of savings but is not willing to BR all of that. I’m trying with more of a Hail Mary approach, BR 10k myself, tolerate a slightly larger ROR and will consider going short term pro or a career break with 50k bankroll of “casino’s money”. I’m fairly certain I’ll go on tilt when I hit negative variance if I use my “life’s savings” to BR a bj career. If you are sick of a job and has 40k of savings, I’ll bet it on a passionate entrepreneurship idea or further studies for a better career. I’ll be ok with losing it that way but not on Bj. How miserable are you going to be if you lose that savings trying to go pro and had to make it back from your cubicle that you hate.
If you haven’t been able to build a decent br out of causally playing for so many years. Going pro doesn’t seem right.


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[cc12b]

Have spent my time since college in a cubicle with a boss I do not like

How many of you guys out there like you boss? In bj if they catch you do a good job you are out and they tell other casinos to keep you out. Also there are some books/stories/blogs out there talking about black jack life so they may give you what to expect or avoid.

Would hope to NET at least 20k first year after all expenses

Do your job give you that kind of income? Is your job a dead end or room for promotion?

[cyz122409]

If I were you, if my EV is triples of my hourly wages, I would do it, if not, keep it as hobby

[Three]

It’s 40k of OP’s savings after years of working in a cubicle. Are you really ok to use all that as BR? Granted he has no liabilities, doesn’t pay rent and it wouldn’t be the end of world to lose all that. But are you mentally ready for that ? I worked similar number of years and has around the same range of savings but is not willing to BR all of that. I’m trying with more of a Hail Mary approach, BR 10k myself, tolerate a slightly larger ROR and will consider going short term pro or a career break with 50k bankroll of “casino’s money”. I’m fairly certain I’ll go on tilt when I hit negative variance if I use my “life’s savings” to BR a bj career. If you are sick of a job and has 40k of savings, I’ll bet it on a passionate entrepreneurship idea or further studies for a better career. I’ll be ok with losing it that way but not on Bj. How miserable are you going to be if you lose that savings trying to go pro and had to make it back from your cubicle that you hate.

If you haven’t been able to build a decent br out of causally playing for so many years. Going pro doesn’t seem right.

When I was considering going pro about 5 years ago I figured I needed $100K to make a go of it and laugh at bad variance out of the gate. After doing all kinds of things that everyone says isn't worth it, I decided I needed a $60K BR for the way I had managed to cut downswings in favor of upswings without changing variance much (variance is blind to which direction the swings are in so a big change in the ride to the long run can show no change in variance). I still waited to make $80K profits from the casinos before going pro because despite all my efforts to control downswings you can still expect much more infrequent severe downswings to happen. You should probably add 50% to what you think you need because you have no clue what it will be like until you try to go pro.

[Optimus Prime]

Three, what are all these things that everyone says aren't worth it?

[ZeeBabar]

Three, what are all these things that everyone says aren't worth it?

Dont go there.

[Three]

Three, what are all these things that everyone says aren't worth it?

Side counting and higher level counts in shoe games. Along with different ways of using this extra information gathered than the traditional way of using it. It is a totally different approach to counting than the traditional way everyone is taught. I would agree these things aren't worth much if I used the information the way everyone else feels it must be used.

[angle_sh00ter]

My thinking is if you need to ask the question then u already have your answer. It should be a moment where u realise you are making enough from playing blackjack (part time or casually) that working a 9-5 is pointless.

And then you have to still weigh up many factors but that could be your green light to consider the notion and look at the logistics and practicalities of such a shift. Just my 2 cents.

[blue_phantom]

Side counting and higher level counts in shoe games. Along with different ways of using this extra information gathered than the traditional way of using it. It is a totally different approach to counting than the traditional way everyone is taught. I would agree these things aren't worth much if I used the information the way everyone else feels it must be used.

Are we talking about 5 side counts and memorizing 1 million indexes ?
What’s the different ways of using the extra information ?

Also wondering can you actually play marathon sessions with such complex methods. Do you accrue more ev practicing these stuff or simply put more time in the field ? More hours more rounds =more ev isn’t it ?

Can you prove that what you do actually reduces variance, and once again, is reduction in risk worth that incremental effort.


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[Three]

Are we talking about 5 side counts and memorizing 1 million indexes ?

no

What’s the different ways of using the extra information ?

I use balanced side counts and use multiples of the side count to add to the main count for different plays. So I have about half dozen different playing counts to choose the one that best fits the play. A single count has a high PE if it is in the upper .6's. But if you use a handful of different playing counts and cherry pick the best for each matchup you can do a lot better than that.

Also wondering can you actually play marathon sessions with such complex methods.

Natural breaks are usually enough. But if I were dumb enough to just sit there for hours, at about 6 hours I could use a break. I have played as many as 20 hours with just pee and food breaks when a great promo is available.

Do you accrue more ev practicing these stuff or simply put more time in the field ?

I could use it to generate more EV. I prefer to use it to give back that EV for reduced downswings and increased upswings. Variance doesn't change much because both positive and negative swings are squared and indistinguishable when it comes to variance. I just win a higher percentage of doubles by making more accurate decisions and waiting for more EV before doubling. It would be wrong to call it risk averse as my goal is different than true risk averse doubling. I would call it downswing averse doubling or upswing increasing doubling. So I increase EV slightly while having little change in variance but I win a much higher percentage of my double downs which increases positive variance while decreasing negative variance.

More hours more rounds =more ev isn’t it ?

I usually hit casino win tolerances before putting in too much time. I don't need to play that much to make what I need. That helps with longevity. It is exposure that is your enemy. Exposure is hours played.

Can you prove that what you do actually reduces variance,

It doesn't affect variance much. You trade downswings for upswings. As far as variance goes they look exactly the same. My approach is cautious rather than aggressive. My aggression is in the information I gather and the way I use it. It generates the same EV without aggressively betting to generate it. The casinos are comfortable with what I do. They don't think you can make decent money playing BJ with such a small spread. Generally speaking they are right.

and once again, is reduction in risk worth that incremental effort.

This becomes a personal preference question. For me there is no doubt it is more than worth the effort. But most people would need to up their skills with a year or so of training to do it. I increased my abilities in steps nonstop since I started. I will never be done improving my skills. For me it is now effortless and automatic. For someone else, they would probably think it is crazy to put that much training and research in.

Betting accuracy is also higher than almost any other approach. I could tell you if your plus 4 count is actually a disadvantage deck composition and how risky all the plays you would increase your bet doing are. The error rate of most counts when it comes to these things is staggering. You can't equate all kinds of totally dissimilar deck compositions and expect a high degree of accuracy. You can expect a high BC but not a high degree of accuracy when betting. BC is about correlation to count tags to the betting EoRs of the various ranks. The SD around your advantage estimate for a betting bin tells you your betting accuracy (the width of your advantage bell curve around the bins advantage estimate based on all the data the sim collected in the betting bin). Bell curves around betting and playing decisions are quite tight for me compared to the best traditional approaches. Gain multiplies upon gain most of the time. You gain 15% here and 40% there and 20% there and the gain is over 93% not 75%. Just keep adding more gai to multiply with what you can already do. It is like compound interest. Individually gain may not seem worth it, but when you get multiple gain the gain tends to multiply upon other gain. So you get more accurate betting, much more accurate plays, trade downswings for upswings by giving back some of the EV gain to wait for a higher win percentage on doubles when you have big bets out. Some doubles are strong at the index. Others need a TC extra. The multiple playing counts don't leave any doubles poorly correlated to the best playing count so generally not much past 1 or maybe 2 TC above the EV maximizing index.

Todays BJ isn't about EV, it is about winning without getting the boot. Big swings are a big red flag. Get the money with few big swings. Just grind it out. There are exceptions to this of course but if you pick a random 20 hour stretch I am almost always right around EV. I am actually usually quite a bit over EV. It is those rare but short lived ass kickings that can't be avoided that pull the overall play back to EV. Then a long stretch of winning way above EV. If you can't win a hand you are going too lose no matter what you are doing. No getting around that. You can bet smaller through it to lose less and win some hands you would have lost due to better playing decisions to lessen the blow but you can't stop it from happening. Sometimes you get your ass kicked because you are betting big into a small advantage or disadvantage, and sometimes you get your ass kicked because you can't win despite having a big advantage. I don't really have the former issue much.

[blue_phantom]

@Three

You lost me there....... for that amount of effort and math and Brain power, have you tried studying something with a higher earning capacity like the financial markets?


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[Midwest Player]

Considering trying full-time...

Let me start with the basics about myself:

• Mid twenties, college educated
• Have spent my time since college in a cubicle with a boss I do not like
• No liabilities or debt, currently live rent free, drive an old but reliable paid off car
• A little over 40k liquid right now
• Have played blackjack casually for 6 years
• I love being on the road and answering to no one
• Would hope to NET at least 20k first year after all expenses

Can those with experience in the present blackjack world give me some pros and cons? By far my biggest concern is burning through lots of places and not being able to get the hours in on games with great EV to make it worth my while.

If I blow through 20k of my savings I will probably be discouraged and may head back to the cubicle, which will always be there waiting for me…

Talk me into it or out of it.

You didn't say if you were single or married, but I will assume single. How are you going to find a wife or even find a steady girl friend if you are traveling all the time. When I was in my mid twenties girls were the number one item on my mind. I was thinking of quitting my job and moving to where my future wife lived. Instead I traveled 500 miles round trip every weekend to see her. Talk about being p*ssy whipped. By age 26 I had two kids to feed.

You didn't mention how much you make at your cubicle job which you hate. I recommend looking for a different job. Now days many companies have min starting pay at $15 an hour. A $15 an hour job will give you about $30,000 a year and if it has benefits they are usually worth another $5 an hour or $10,000 a year. That sounds better to me than playing blackjack.

Have you given any thought if you would be playing rated or unrated. If playing unrated expenses are really going to dig into your profits, and if playing rated its very possible to get your good name ruined.

I think the big question is do you want a family relationship or not. I think being on the road all the time would be pretty hard on any kind of family life.

[stopgambling]

keep your job and just bet big is a good tactic. it limits your exposure.