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Thread: How often...

  1. #1


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    How often...

    will the count rise to at least +2 TC in an eight deck shoe before the shoe is half finished (by the end of the fourth deck)? Playing an online casino and I know the sample size isn't massive but it seems that at least 75% of the time it gets very high very early. I don't think they'd use short decks but who knows...

  2. #2


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    I doubt many here play online BJ.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I doubt many here play online BJ.
    You're right, but this is a general question. Doesn't matter if it's online or in a casino. Just would like to know the percentage. Something fishy might be going on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    You're right, but this is a general question. Doesn't matter if it's online or in a casino. Just would like to know the percentage. Something fishy might be going on.

    According to CVCX, TC+2 or higher occurs about 12% of the time (rounds) in an 8 deck h17 das 75% pen game. Not sure what you mean by "at least 75%" but I would suggest that is a very high number. My expectation would be 20-40% range.

    According to my experience (based on many thousand of shoes counted), about 20% of the shoes (6Deck h17) will go to TC+2 before three decks are played.

    I believe there is more academic data regarding this topic in BJA-III.

    BTW, if you think they are cooking the decks, then don't play. If I build a system to let you play blackjack, without oversight or regulation, then you will never win long term and only short term as a means to bleed the player.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #5
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    Online, offline AND rules...ALL insignificant

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    According to CVCX, TC+2 or higher occurs about 12% of the time (rounds) in an 8 deck h17 das 75% pen game. Not sure what you mean by "at least 75%" but I would suggest that is a very high number. My expectation would be 20-40% range.

    According to my experience (based on many thousand of shoes counted), about 20% of the shoes (6Deck h17) will go to TC+2 before three decks are played.

    I believe there is more academic data regarding this topic in BJA-III.

    BTW, if you think they are cooking the decks, then don't play. If I build a system to let you play blackjack, without oversight or regulation, then you will never win long term and only short term as a means to bleed the player.

    Thank you, but you misread the pen of the shoe. It's around 50%, not 75%. Does that have an impact on the percentage of times the TC will go over 2?

    I don't think they're messing with the decks; I believe they are reputable. It's just hard to believe this variance.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    will the count rise to at least +2 TC in an eight deck shoe before the shoe is half finished (by the end of the fourth deck)? Playing an online casino and I know the sample size isn't massive but it seems that at least 75% of the time it gets very high very early. I don't think they'd use short decks but who knows...
    cottage cheese,

    I ran a 2-billion round CVData sim for an 8D, H17, DA2, DAS game with one "average player" and one HiLo wonger, who wongs in at a HiLo TC of +2, plays one round, and wongs out, forcing a shuffle.

    According to the Misc stats, the wonger enters 32.15% of the shoes seen: that is the information you requested. Naturally, this percentage depends on the house rules, the actual penetration, and the number of other players.

    In addition, he exits 30.09% of the shoes: this means that he finishes 2.06% of the shoes, which means that he wonged in on the very last round of the shoe about one time in fifty shoes.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    cottage cheese,

    I ran a 2-billion round CVData sim for an 8D, H17, DA2, DAS game with one "average player" and one HiLo wonger, who wongs in at a HiLo TC of +2, plays one round, and wongs out, forcing a shuffle.

    According to the Misc stats, the wonger enters 32.15% of the shoes seen: that is the information you requested. Naturally, this percentage depends on the house rules, the actual penetration, and the number of other players.

    In addition, he exits 30.09% of the shoes: this means that he finishes 2.06% of the shoes, which means that he wonged in on the very last round of the shoe about one time in fifty shoes.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    thank you for running that dog. but i have the feeling that 32% number would go down if you put in that the pen is just 50% because there's much less time/cards for the count to rise.

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    I have cvdata and i don't even know how to utilize it .

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    Quote Originally Posted by cottage cheese View Post
    thank you for running that dog. but i have the feeling that 32% number would go down if you put in that the pen is just 50% because there's much less time/cards for the count to rise.
    cottage cheese,

    Doh! I forgot to mention that the penetration was set at 50% in the abovementioned sim.

    Dog Hand

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    ...who wongs in at a HiLo TC of +2, ...According to the Misc stats, the wonger enters 32.15% of the shoes seen...Naturally, this percentage depends on the house rules...
    while i do wong out...i never wong in....(would look pretty obvious in the games i play)...I always thought the wonging was a function of the TC...how does the house rules affect the TC?

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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    I have cvdata and i don't even know how to utilize it .
    stopgambling,

    This sim is easy to configure and run in CVData.

    Start CVData, and select a "Simple Six Deck" sim. Then, change the number of decks to 8, and set the cut card at 204 cards cut off (for 50% pen). Set the number of players to 2.

    On the Rules page, set the house rules. I used H17 rather than the default S17, and left the other options at their default values (DA2, DAS, No RSA, No Surrender).

    On the Playing Strategy page, select Complete HiLo.

    On the Betting Strategy page, choose to define a new strategy based on the built-in Flat Bet strategy. Call the new strategy "Wong at 2 for 1 rd". On the strategy definition page, click the Wonging button. Set the "Wong in" value at +2, and the "Wong out" value at +99. Check the "Force shuffle on exit" checkbox. What this combination of options does is to have the HiLo player wong in if the TC at the start of a round is +2 or higher. After he plays one round, he'll wong out as long as the TC is less than +99 (so he'll always wong out), and then the dealer will shuffle and begin a new shoe.

    Run the sim, then click the "Misc" menu and choose the "miscellaneous stats". There, you will see that the player wonged in on 32.15% of the shoes, and left 30.09% of the shoes (meaning he left before the shoe ended).

    Give this a try to see of you can get similar results.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  13. #13


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    i want to know the target count frequency of my side bet , when to abandon the shoe to search for better opportunities .

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