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Thread: Killing Time After Wonging Out: Craps vs Roulette vs A Cold BJ Table

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    Senior Member SteinMeister's Avatar
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    Killing Time After Wonging Out: Craps vs Roulette vs A Cold BJ Table

    I’ve posted before regarding wonging out at a favorite table / dealer and then coming back later for the next shuffle (assuming the favorite dealer will still be there). Several people had excellent comments on how to kill time nonchalantly (bathroom, get a non alcoholic drink, phone call, etc).

    Recently I read where someone recommended going to the craps table and betting on the Pass line (to minimize the house edge) and effectively look like a ploppy while waiting on your favorite table / dealer to reshuffle. After all, an AP would never play craps because there’s no way to beat it.

    Then, I thought… couldn’t an additional “camouflage” play be roulette and simply bet black (or even) and minimize the house edge while waiting?

    So in researching, I found that the craps Pass Line has a house edge of 1.41% ( https://www.casinotop10.net/online-craps-strategy ) which makes a players edge of 48.59%. Regarding roulette and a double zero wheel, the math reveals a house edge of 20 / 38, netting a players edge of 18 / 38 = 47.37%.

    But wait… what is the players edge if I simply wong out from my favorite dealer and move to an unknown BJ table (i.e. count unknown) in the middle of the shoe? And assume (from my perspective) the TC=0 and start counting from that point. Then, I would need to start at minimum bet assuming TC = 0 even though there are cards in the discard tray. To conservatively model this scenario, I use my house parameters, assume flatbet and play-all with no counting (i.e. BS with no indices), and model this using CVCX. Doing this shows (for my scenario) %W/L at -0.63% , which (presumably) is 50% - 0.63% = 49.37% players edge.

    Question: Would the above conservative CVCX modeling approach offset the real life possibility of unwittingly sitting down to a negative count, much like what I just wonged out from? If so, then a "cold" BJ table is better than craps or roulette while biding time.

    Anxious to hear thoughts and comments.

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    Personally, I'd be back-counting a new table, or looking for a table that's about to shuffle.

    If you want to put on a show for the eye while you're wonged out, best odds is usually craps on the pass line.

    If you're just looking for something to kill time, best odds is flat betting a -0.63% BJ table as you suggest. The chance of inadvertently stumbling into a negative shoe is precisely equal to the chance of stumbling into a positive shoe. The average odds you'll face are -0.63%, which is way better than a pass line bet at the craps table. And of course you can still count even if you sit down part way into a shoe - you just treat the cards you missed as unseen - just like those behind the cut card. Makes effective penetration poor, but it's better than simply flat-betting and not counting at all.

    But again, I'm not sure why you want to play any negative expectation game - isn't that why you wonged out???

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteinMeister View Post
    Recently I read where someone recommended going to the craps table and betting on the Pass line (to minimize the house edge) and effectively look like a ploppy while waiting on your favorite table / dealer to reshuffle. After all, an AP would never play craps because there’s no way to beat it.
    Your best odds at forced Craps betting is the No Pass line. (1.36 vs 1.41 NP vs Pass)

    Then, I thought… couldn’t an additional “camouflage” play be roulette and simply bet black (or even) and minimize the house edge while waiting?
    *IF* you like making a 2.70% HE bet per spin...assuming single zero. (And good luck finding red-chip single O's in the US!)

    So in researching, I found that the craps Pass Line has a house edge of 1.41% ( https://www.casinotop10.net/online-craps-strategy ) which makes a players edge of 48.59%. Regarding roulette and a double zero wheel, the math reveals a house edge of 20 / 38, netting a players edge of 18 / 38 = 47.37%.
    Don't think of EV as a total of player return values (the given bold), but rather as the sum of all EVs, giving the average edge of the game, that is...the HE (1.41 for Pass in Craps and 5.26 for double O's roulette.) Here, you are getting worse odds at roulette than at Craps!

    But wait… what is the players edge if I simply wong out from my favorite dealer and move to an unknown BJ table (i.e. count unknown) in the middle of the shoe? And assume (from my perspective) the TC=0 and start counting from that point. Then, I would need to start at minimum bet assuming TC = 0 even though there are cards in the discard tray. To conservatively model this scenario, I use my house parameters, assume flatbet and play-all with no counting (i.e. BS with no indices), and model this using CVCX. Doing this shows (for my scenario) %W/L at -0.63% , which (presumably) is 50% - 0.63% = 49.37% players edge.

    Question: Would the above conservative CVCX modeling approach offset the real life possibility of unwittingly sitting down to a negative count, much like what I just wonged out from? If so, then a "cold" BJ table is better than craps or roulette while biding time.

    Anxious to hear thoughts and comments.
    If I am not mistaken, you would just be playing the same game but with worse penetration. That is, you would need a spread far greater than what you could get with if you just waited for a fresh shoe (assuming you are looking to avoid -EV action in total!) This may defeat the your intended purpose of looking like a rando who doesn't know is prick from his elbow. Of course, you may be giving up too much +EV to stave off too little heat. A sim can figure that out for you.

    I think your best bet is to keep your spreads small, your time short, and your manners minded. That's just me, though!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    Personally, I'd be back-counting a new table, or looking for a table that's about to shuffle.

    If you want to put on a show for the eye while you're wonged out, best odds is usually craps on the pass line.

    If you're just looking for something to kill time, best odds is flat betting a -0.63% BJ table as you suggest. The chance of inadvertently stumbling into a negative shoe is precisely equal to the chance of stumbling into a positive shoe. The average odds you'll face are -0.63%, which is way better than a pass line bet at the craps table. And of course you can still count even if you sit down part way into a shoe - you just treat the cards you missed as unseen - just like those behind the cut card. Makes effective penetration poor, but it's better than simply flat-betting and not counting at all.

    But again, I'm not sure why you want to play any negative expectation game - isn't that why you wonged out???
    We (as in I, myself) are forgetting the EV of the game (given some certain rules) at a certain number of cards drawn where we have a lower HE. Is it not true that the HE is lower at the 1-2 deck level as opposed to that of the 6-7-8 deck level, ceteris paribus?

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    Why not simply learn VB (Visual Ballistics) a la Scott Laurence and others and you can make a profit on your roulette forays. You may eventually give up BJ altogether as the edge you can get with VB is much greater

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteinMeister View Post
    <snip>So in researching, I found that the craps Pass Line has a house edge of 1.41% ( https://www.casinotop10.net/online-craps-strategy ) which makes a players edge of 48.59%. <snip>
    SteinMeister,

    You have incorrectly calculated the players edge. If the house edge is 1.41%, then the players edge is necessarily -1.41%: after all, craps (and all other casino games) are zero-sum games (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game), so the house edge plus the players edge must equal zero.

    Frankly, if I could play craps with an actual players edge of 48.59%, I'd be there 24/7/365!

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

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    Stein, you can either do 100% - HE to get the player return, in the case of craps, it'd be 100% - 1.41% = 98.59%. For every $100 you bet, you'll get $98.59 back.

    If you're trying to figure out the chance to win, (assuming it's an even money game), then you can subtract 1/2 the HE from 50%, or simply divide the return by 2. Either way, you'll get:

    50% - (0.5 * 1.41) = 49.295% to win, using the former.
    98.59% / 2 = 49.295% to win, using the latter.

    IOW, you're betting on a weighted coin-flip where you only have a 49.295% chance to win even money. This isn't true for all games, though, where every bet doesn't resolve as either +1 or -1 unit, such as blackjack due to splits/doubles or a BJ paying +1.5 units. Or in other games where pushes occur, such as Pai Gow (frequently), or even the Don't Pass in craps when a 12 is rolled (2 in Reno. Ugh....Reno....ugh).



    Regardless, the most important thing when killing time and wanting to lose the least amount of money (EV) isn't simply the house edge, but, as I just said, the amount of EV you're giving up. UTH can be incredibly slow and easy to slow the game down. In baccarat, you can sit out on several hands, because that's what players do oftentimes -- they'll see the "double dragon tail sequence" or whatever and not play because it's "choppy" or something. Especially if it's big-bac of midi-bac, where players get to touch the cards (reads: take forever to bend, peek, squeeze, etc. the card before revealing what it is). Blackjack has a low house edge, but you'll probably lose more EV in BJ than craps because there are more frequent decisions (meaning more bets placed) on BJ than in craps. I doubt roulette would be cheaper, unless the game is going incredibly slowly and the craps table is going fast/empty. A benefit of roulette would be that you can cut down on the variance quite a bit by betting a bunch of numbers -- yes it costs more EV to play roulette, but for the sake of variance reduction, it might be better. A downside of craps is that it can take too long for your point to resolve, and you might be stuck there while the dealer returns. UTH is probably the best IMO in terms of EV, but there's going to be far more variance in UTH.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Senior Member SteinMeister's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post

    50% - (0.5 * 1.41) = 49.295% to win, using the former.
    98.59% / 2 = 49.295% to win, using the latter.

    A downside of craps is that it can take too long for your point to resolve, and you might be stuck there while the dealer returns. UTH is probably the best IMO in terms of EV, but there's going to be far more variance in UTH.
    Thanks RS for pointing out the correct method to calculate HE.
    Regarding your point with UTH (Ultimate Texas Hold ‘em) wouldn’t the same concern (being stuck there) apply?

    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    Your best odds at forced Craps betting is the No Pass line. (1.36 vs 1.41 NP vs Pass)

    If I am not mistaken, you would just be playing the same game but with worse penetration. That is, you would need a spread far greater than what you could get with if you just waited for a fresh shoe (assuming you are looking to avoid -EV action in total!) This may defeat the your intended purpose of looking like a rando who doesn't know is prick from his elbow. Of course, you may be giving up too much +EV to stave off too little heat. A sim can figure that out for you.

    I think your best bet is to keep your spreads small, your time short, and your manners minded. That's just me, though!
    Thanks dogman for the info. However, I would not intend to be playing a larger spread (at the “cold” BJ table), I’d simply be flatbetting, playing basic strategy w/o indices.
    Also, sage advice on your last line.

    Quote Originally Posted by ummagumma View Post
    Why not simply learn VB (Visual Ballistics) a la Scott Laurence and others and you can make a profit on your roulette forays. You may eventually give up BJ altogether as the edge you can get with VB is much greater [IMG]file:///C:\Users\MEMMAS~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\ 01\clip_image001.png[/IMG]
    Not sure if I buy in on the ability to predict physics in minutia like VB. If that’s the case, one should also be able to determine the flip of a coin once it’s in the air. (My guess is they’d still have a 50/50 chance of a correct prediction).

    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    SteinMeister,

    You have incorrectly calculated the players edge. . .

    Frankly, if I could play craps with an actual players edge of 48.59%, I'd be there 24/7/365!
    You’re right Dog Hand, I stand corrected in my original calculations. (RS pointed that out as well). Thanks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    Your best odds at forced Craps betting is the No Pass line. (1.36 vs 1.41 NP vs Pass)
    While the odds stated here are true it isn't considering what you are doing and the way craps tends to run. Craps can see a bunch of come out rolls before a point is established. The pass line wins two thirds of the bets resolved on the come out. Yje don't pass wins 1/4 of them, loses 2/3rds of them, and pushes the other 1/12th of bets resolved on the come out. Once a comet is established it can take a while to resolve the bet. You can take down a don't pass bet but not a pass line bet. You are giving up EV but if you have somewhere to be, like a fresh shoe ready to deal, you can either pick it up or for either bet you can make it a dealer bet. So you are looking to kill a few minutes you bet the pass line and you could win a bunch of come out bets but if you bet the don't you will lose 67% of the come out decisions. The way craps goes it doesn't seem to make sense to bet the Don't Pass if you are just looking to kill a few minutes. The only plus side to the Don't bet for waiting for a fresh shoe is you can pick up a Don't bet waiting for a 7-out or the point to hit that has now become an advantage bet.

    Roulette is an agonizingly slow game. It suits the need of not betting much to span a while and being able to leave when you want to. Not saying anything about which is a better game but roulette suits the needs of a counter waiting for a fresh shoe to be ready better than craps.

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    Penny, or the cheapest, vp you can find.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteinMeister View Post

    Not sure if I buy in on the ability to predict physics in minutia like VB. If that’s the case, one should also be able to determine the flip of a coin once it’s in the air. (My guess is they’d still have a 50/50 chance of a correct prediction).
    Then that's your loss. It's proven but it takes work and not for everyone.

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    Senior Member SteinMeister's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post

    Roulette is an agonizingly slow game. It suits the need of not betting much to span a while and being able to leave when you want to. Not saying anything about which is a better game but roulette suits the needs of a counter waiting for a fresh shoe to be ready better than craps.
    Thanks once again Three. This is exactly what I would use it for. And, use my (previously posted) Time Before Next Shuffle Chart (that''s on my phone as a photo) to know when to return to my favorite BJ dealer.
    Time Before Next Shuffle.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by ummagumma View Post
    Then that's your loss. It's proven but it takes work and not for everyone.
    <<Citation Needed>>

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