very depressing variance, what are the odds?

[ZeeBabar]

Everyone is advising so I am assuming you guys play a 4 or 6 deck game with 50% penetration. Is that correct? Lets take a poll and see if there are AP's playing 50% penetration games of 4, 6 or 8 decks? Please poswt if you do play such games and how often?

I dont even play a DD game unless there is at least 55% penetration.

[Freightman]

If your tc 4 is 2x100, and your max is 2-500, I guarantee you that your spread is fucked up, and you’re getting clobbered with occasional bets above +4.

Get cvcx, plug in the variables, and fix your problem.

My answer was based on a different co7nt. I’ll have another look at this....maybe.

[Freightman]

Everyone is advising so I am assuming you guys play a 4 or 6 deck game with 50% penetration. Is that correct? Lets take a poll and see if there are AP's playing 50% penetration games of 4, 6 or 8 decks? Please poswt if you do play such games and how often?

I dont even play a DD game unless there is at least 55% penetration.

Why, just yesterday, I played just such a 6d shoe - some rogue dealer making their own rules.

[angle_sh00ter]

Everyone is advising so I am assuming you guys play a 4 or 6 deck game with 50% penetration. Is that correct? Lets take a poll and see if there are AP's playing 50% penetration games of 4, 6 or 8 decks? Please poswt if you do play such games and how often?

I dont even play a DD game unless there is at least 55% penetration.

Do the games you play allow you to spread from table min to table max with zero heat? Or did you miss that little detail?

[Stealth]

First, it is not rational to suggest a bet ramp without knowledge of the size of your bankroll and your risk tolerance stated as a % of risk of ruin. Certainly a ramp based on table limits is highly suspect and using unrealistic bet levels based on overly optimistic availablility of rounds at certain true counts. Bet ramp design needs to understand frequency of true count to be most effective among other things.

Your structure and questions make it clear you do not understand the scope of variance. You would do well to research and understand the concept of N0.

Buy CVCX and the book Blackjack Attack III and use them to begin to understand the answers to your questions.

[cc12b]

4D
S17
RSA
DAS
LS
50%
$1-$50

My hat is off for those who have a lot of money, gut or skill to play 50% pen games. Just recently, a local store moved the cut card from 75% to 65% on DD, it makes me feel like I get 86 so I do not come there any more. Couple other counters who are regular at that store also quit. My feeling is "it is very hard to win few bucks at 70-75% pen then why bother to play 60% pen and now someone try beat 50%". Please help me out. Thanks

[Freightman]

My hat is off for those who have a lot of money, gut or skill to play 50% pen games. Just recently, a local store moved the cut card from 75% to 65% on DD, it makes me feel like I get 86 so I do not come there any more. Couple other counters who are regular at that store also quit. My feeling is "it is very hard to win few bucks at 70-75% pen then why bother to play 60% pen and now someone try beat 50%". Please help me out. Thanks

I play this 1 metro area with some gooD shoe and lots of DD at 50%. I don’t mind the 50% heads up. That 65% DD that you’re bitching about - many would cream their shorts for that one.

[cc12b]

I don’t mind the 50% heads up

The head up maybe sometimes you can see at wee hours and won't last long as people coming in. The strange thing is many of them wont want to seat at empty table but want to seat where there are some people are playing. You move to empty table? Not for long as they follow you and blame you for splitting 9s or hit 12v2 or hit A7 v 9, 10 etc. At slow time like that the PB always at where the action is. May be with your FBM ASC count you can make money

[Meistro123]

. Bet ramp design needs to understand frequency of true count to be most effective among other things.

No, assuming you are modeling your betting strategy after the Kelly Criterion, frequency of true count is irrelevant.

[Sharky]

I play 50% sd & dd because it's 'short cycle' (time between shuffle)... with shoe games that moves to 80+% or I'm a walkin'

[stopgambling]

I don’t mind the 50% heads up

if you are playing that , you are probably not gonna to last long anyway . i guess the quote is from Freightman ,

[Freightman]

if you are playing that , you are probably not gonna to last long anyway . i guess the quote is from Freightman ,

Double Deck is so volatile, producing substantial positive and negative extremes. Heads up, usually at higher mins, can give you alone times. You also need to be a pig if one other is at the table, you have the option to spread and do so when favourable. Don’t worr6 about pissing off the plops.

[angle_sh00ter]

I dont think ive seen better than 55% penetration in DD games in LV in the last 2 years. Although its very possible that the penetration is 60% and i see it as 55% and someone else sees it as 65%. That could certainly account for a degree of discrepancy