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Thread: Whoa! Hold on a minute! This is a quote from John Fergusan's BJ Secrets.

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Whoa! Hold on a minute! This is a quote from John Fergusan's BJ Secrets.

    P. 72:

    Actually you need not appear to vary bet sizes at all. You can win handsomely with an identical bet on every hand that you play. If bet size variation identifies you as a system player, then bet size variation is something you can do without.
    Did I read that right? For cover you can essentially use flat betting?!?!?!
    My Ability in Blackjack is a Gift from God!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    P. 72:



    Did I read that right? For cover you can essentially use flat betting?!?!?!
    If you Wong in at a plus count, and it maintains - why not?

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    If you Wong in at a plus count, and it maintains - why not?
    True. But essentially flat betting? Even as the count changes?
    My Ability in Blackjack is a Gift from God!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    True. But essentially flat betting? Even as the count changes?
    Why not. Expand your paradigms. Look beyond the box.

    Everyone is so damned concerned about moving bets with the count, an$ accordingly, looking so robotic.Evaluate your own bankroll specifics, and consider various strategies pertaining to different situations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    True. But essentially flat betting? Even as the count changes?
    I mean if you have the edge still, it's +EV. You could also just press your bet after a win if the count rises more

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    Senior Member BigJer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    I mean if you have the edge still, it's +EV. You could also just press your bet after a win if the count rises more
    True, but is it playing optimally? Meaning the best way?
    My Ability in Blackjack is a Gift from God!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJer View Post
    True. But essentially flat betting? Even as the count changes?
    Yes. Usually the TC stays about the same. Find a way to get to the right advantage bet without looking like a counter and keep that bet while the TC dances back and forth a little high and a little low. If the TC tanks to the point that advantage is lost leave instead of change your bets. The more you bet the more this helps deflect heat while getting you the money. Red chippers really don't need to worry about this. It is the bet moves with the count that make counters so easy to spot. Say I am a suit. I walk up to your table and note your bet and see the RC change for the round is +6 with 2 decks left. I don't need to know anything about the current count. I know your TC went up by 3 that round and watch to see if a bet change reflects this TC change. If it doesn't you obviously aren't betting with the count.

    If you get a quick BO that is not optimal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CountinCanadian View Post
    I mean if you have the edge still, it's +EV. You could also just press your bet after a win if the count rises more
    Grasshopper, would you not consider raising your bet when the count is declining? To do so might be the beginning if wisdom.

    https://youtu.be/W2yIkDVs0cA

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Grasshopper, would you not consider raising your bet when the count is declining? To do so might be the beginning if wisdom.

    https://youtu.be/W2yIkDVs0cA
    As long as the advantage is still there most definitely

    Snyder hints at many good ideas

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    Hi, BJ!

    That was a great post! I have a corollary to this 'flat bet' idea which I've been using for decades. I noticed decades ago that you can get +EV with Basic Strategy (BS) as long as you use a Bet Ramp. For places where I need longevity more than edge, I developed a modified BS I call "Counter's Universal Strategy" which is similar to BS (no deviations) except I optimize BS for 'proper' play when you have larger bets out and the TC is high. (I later ran into this same idea, called Counter's Basic Strategy, from the guy who wrote BJ 6-7-8 software ... I can't recall his name right now.)

    This way, you don't use the deviations so you don't change the way you play hands (unless you have a good reason). Instead, you just play 16 vs. 10 as a stand all the time, for example, as you would if the TC were positive, because it matters the most when the bigger bets are out and that's when you stand, anyway. You go through that analysis once for the hands in the Ill16/18 deviations from Don and that's your new BS. This removes one of the give-aways from being a CC (i.e., playing the same hand differently, which sharp dealers will notice, in my experience).

    I also use some of Snyder's ideas on betting (if you have a large bankroll, this helps) to get the effective spread higher and a ton of Ian Anderson's ideas on cover for places where I need longevity more than max EV. To offset the cost, I use ideas from Wong. You end up with a customized approach that you can't easily simulate or even explain, but it all works to improve your longevity while minimizing the adverse effect on EV, as needed at the time.

    I'm sure most of the people who have done this for a long time have a long list of 'tricks' they use and they may not even be aware of many of them most of the time. The approach for those who go full-tilt, full-time for a relatively short time (1-2 years) with no concern for BO's is far different than the one I've used for decades to ensure longevity. The full-tilt approach is the one that gets all the attention but it wouldn't work for my situation most of the time.

    Good on ya for thinking!!!
    Best,
    SiMi

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