See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 27 to 39 of 46

Thread: Deck estimation, would you dvide by 2 or 1.5?

  1. #27
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    When running count is 7, remaining deck is three-quarters,
    7/.75?9.33
    Floor the TC estimation to arrive at TC=9
    The TC conversion and deck estimate method they used had no possible way to get those TCs.

  2. #28
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Atlantic City
    Posts
    1,013


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    When I am practicing/training, I go with the very exact in great detail, and it ends up becoming very automatic at the tables. Don hit it with calculate as exact as you can and floor it from there. Something I must point out that I see no one's brought up that comes to mind when I saw the example RC+17 @2.25 decks remaining... There's no need to calculate anything at all there. At a glance you can see that you are placing a max bet, what's to calculate?

    Once the RC/TC becomes negative, all counts behave the same, you are placing a minimum bet. Once the TC becomes around +5 or greater, all counts behave the same and you are putting a max bet out there. If you use several different counts in a side by side in comparison, you will notice where it all varies in terms of units wagered is between TC+2 and TC+5. I did an interesting experiment with this, slowly and meticulously using several methods simultaneously, noting the results and comparing just how far off from one another they can get, how many units were going out using the same bet spread. If one method estimates TC+2 and the other estimates TC+4, very different wagers are placed, but if one method estimates TC+7 and the other TC+9, either method is placing whatever their max bet is.

  3. #29


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    There's no need to calculate anything at all there. At a glance you can see that you are placing a max bet, what's to calculate?
    Fascinating (but not surprising) how the fellow with one of the most intricate counting systems sees (and uses) the simplest reasoning when appropriate.

    Thanks Tarzan

  4. #30


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    <snip>If you use several different counts in a side by side in comparison, you will notice where it all varies in terms of units wagered is between TC+2 and TC+5. I did an interesting experiment with this, slowly and meticulously using several methods simultaneously, noting the results and comparing just how far off from one another they can get, how many units were going out using the same bet spread. If one method estimates TC+2 and the other estimates TC+4, very different wagers are placed, but if one method estimates TC+7 and the other TC+9, either method is placing whatever their max bet is.
    Tarzan,

    In January of 2017 I posted directions for creating an Excel spreadsheet to automate the comparison of two different counts: see my post in this thread

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...lays-with-CVCX

    With a bit of tinkering, the spreadsheet can be expanded to compare numerous counting methods simultaneously.

    As I said in the post, if you'd like a copy of the Excel file, contact me.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  5. #31
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21frogman View Post
    Fascinating (but not surprising) how the fellow with one of the most intricate counting systems sees (and uses) the simplest reasoning when appropriate.
    Most of the time the bet or play needs no calculation, especially if you have enough experience.

  6. #32
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Tread careful here. The late Dr. Griffin made a point of advising
    that it is superior to play Basic Strategy, rather than overbetting
    or, more to the point, violating Basic Strategy e.g. with a +2 True
    Count, when the T.C. ought to have been 'floored' to +1.


  7. #33


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    Tread careful here. The late Dr. Griffin made a point of advising
    that it is superior to play Basic Strategy, rather than overbetting
    or, more to the point, violating Basic Strategy e.g. with a +2 True
    Count, when the T.C. ought to have been 'floored' to +1.

    Flash makes an interesting point, which is a good caveat for commentary, whom among others, I’ve been happy to espouse.

    It’s fine and dandy to vary bets by interpolating between true counts. Don’t interpolate for the purpose of index play deviation.

  8. #34
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    South West
    Posts
    957


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Flash makes an interesting point, which is a good caveat for commentary, whom among others, I’ve been happy to espouse.

    It’s fine and dandy to vary bets by interpolating between true counts. Don’t interpolate for the purpose of index play deviation.
    There are times it's worth doing an index play not at index too. I've hit 12 v 5 just to get a superstitious player off my table. I interpolate for index plays. It may not be best, but I feel it's most accurate for me.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  9. #35
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Bubbles View Post
    but I feel it's most accurate for me.
    The indices are not generated to be used by interpolation. They are the average of the entire TC bin the way the sim calculated the TC. You do extra work that hurts your results. If you want to do extra calculations to have a lower EV that is up to you. But don't kid yourself that Griffin was wrong about this one (or any other one for that matter).

  10. #36
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    South West
    Posts
    957


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The indices are not generated to be used by interpolation. They are the average of the entire TC bin the way the sim calculated the TC. You do extra work that hurts your results. If you want to do extra calculations to have a lower EV that is up to you. But don't kid yourself that Griffin was wrong about this one (or any other one for that matter).
    You didn't generate my indices. How do you know how they were generated? They were not made to be floored to the nearest deck only. That would be silly to generate indices for 75% pen DD which could only ever be floored with a divisor of 2 or 1. Mine are much more refined than that. I am using my indices in the manner for which they were intended.

  11. #37
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Then you are not interpolating.

  12. #38
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    South West
    Posts
    957


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Then you are not interpolating.
    Yes I am. See above for my explanation for how I come to index playing decisions. I interpolate.

  13. #39
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Bubbles View Post
    Yes I am. See above for my explanation for how I come to index playing decisions. I interpolate.
    I don't see an explanation of how you do it. Perhaps a post # may help. I think the problem is we are defining what interpolating means in this case differently. I don't really care to get into this. If you like it then go with it. I thought I might be helping you. Either you don't want help or you and I are having a communication issue about what you mean by interpolating in this case. Do whatever you like.

    For others, trying to be "smarter" than the sim allows will hurt you with index plays. Griffin said that using your index early will cost you more than using it late. That is because of the TC frequency bell curve. The frequency of using it incorrectly 1 TC early (or any increment early) will be much higher than the frequency of using it 1 TC late (or the corresponding increment late). With diminishing frequencies as you get further from TC 0 you may eat up as much as several times the the increment of errant use on the plus EV side of the index. Griffin said you may use up all the gain from the index but back then things were mostly pitch games.

Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Deck Estimation standard in Double Deck
    By vhalen in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 06-22-2016, 09:10 AM
  2. Deck estimation.
    By Pacman in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 04-28-2014, 01:55 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.