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Thread: Deck estimation, would you dvide by 2 or 1.5?

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21frogman View Post
    Fascinating (but not surprising) how the fellow with one of the most intricate counting systems sees (and uses) the simplest reasoning when appropriate.
    Most of the time the bet or play needs no calculation, especially if you have enough experience.

  2. #32


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    Tread careful here. The late Dr. Griffin made a point of advising
    that it is superior to play Basic Strategy, rather than overbetting
    or, more to the point, violating Basic Strategy e.g. with a +2 True
    Count, when the T.C. ought to have been 'floored' to +1.


  3. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    Tread careful here. The late Dr. Griffin made a point of advising
    that it is superior to play Basic Strategy, rather than overbetting
    or, more to the point, violating Basic Strategy e.g. with a +2 True
    Count, when the T.C. ought to have been 'floored' to +1.

    Flash makes an interesting point, which is a good caveat for commentary, whom among others, I’ve been happy to espouse.

    It’s fine and dandy to vary bets by interpolating between true counts. Don’t interpolate for the purpose of index play deviation.

  4. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Flash makes an interesting point, which is a good caveat for commentary, whom among others, I’ve been happy to espouse.

    It’s fine and dandy to vary bets by interpolating between true counts. Don’t interpolate for the purpose of index play deviation.
    There are times it's worth doing an index play not at index too. I've hit 12 v 5 just to get a superstitious player off my table. I interpolate for index plays. It may not be best, but I feel it's most accurate for me.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubbles View Post
    but I feel it's most accurate for me.
    The indices are not generated to be used by interpolation. They are the average of the entire TC bin the way the sim calculated the TC. You do extra work that hurts your results. If you want to do extra calculations to have a lower EV that is up to you. But don't kid yourself that Griffin was wrong about this one (or any other one for that matter).

  6. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The indices are not generated to be used by interpolation. They are the average of the entire TC bin the way the sim calculated the TC. You do extra work that hurts your results. If you want to do extra calculations to have a lower EV that is up to you. But don't kid yourself that Griffin was wrong about this one (or any other one for that matter).
    You didn't generate my indices. How do you know how they were generated? They were not made to be floored to the nearest deck only. That would be silly to generate indices for 75% pen DD which could only ever be floored with a divisor of 2 or 1. Mine are much more refined than that. I am using my indices in the manner for which they were intended.

  7. #37
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    Then you are not interpolating.

  8. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Then you are not interpolating.
    Yes I am. See above for my explanation for how I come to index playing decisions. I interpolate.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubbles View Post
    Yes I am. See above for my explanation for how I come to index playing decisions. I interpolate.
    I don't see an explanation of how you do it. Perhaps a post # may help. I think the problem is we are defining what interpolating means in this case differently. I don't really care to get into this. If you like it then go with it. I thought I might be helping you. Either you don't want help or you and I are having a communication issue about what you mean by interpolating in this case. Do whatever you like.

    For others, trying to be "smarter" than the sim allows will hurt you with index plays. Griffin said that using your index early will cost you more than using it late. That is because of the TC frequency bell curve. The frequency of using it incorrectly 1 TC early (or any increment early) will be much higher than the frequency of using it 1 TC late (or the corresponding increment late). With diminishing frequencies as you get further from TC 0 you may eat up as much as several times the the increment of errant use on the plus EV side of the index. Griffin said you may use up all the gain from the index but back then things were mostly pitch games.

  10. #40


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I don't see an explanation of how you do it. Perhaps a post # may help. I think the problem is we are defining what interpolating means in this case differently. I don't really care to get into this. If you like it then go with it. I thought I might be helping you. Either you don't want help or you and I are having a communication issue about what you mean by interpolating in this case. Do whatever you like.

    For others, trying to be "smarter" than the sim allows will hurt you with index plays. Griffin said that using your index early will cost you more than using it late. That is because of the TC frequency bell curve. The frequency of using it incorrectly 1 TC early (or any increment early) will be much higher than the frequency of using it 1 TC late (or the corresponding increment late). With diminishing frequencies as you get further from TC 0 you may eat up as much as several times the the increment of errant use on the plus EV side of the index. Griffin said you may use up all the gain from the index but back then things were mostly pitch games.
    I have a feeling that you and Bubbles have different meanings. That being said, strike points may be defined as the point at which EV equals and exceeds 50%. To do so prematurely is minus EV.

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