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Thread: PROBLEM wit my DOUBLE DOWNS!!!!

  1. #1


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    PROBLEM wit my DOUBLE DOWNS!!!!

    Hi Gamblers out there. I have a serious issue going on for the past 20 years or so. I wouldn’t call myself a professional gambler but very close to it. I go to Atlantic City once a week. I play 6 decks, No Mid Shoe, Hand Shuffle, and Dealer Stands on Soft 17 tables. I play at a $25 table and I play $25 until I win a hand, then when I win the first hand I take back the first win, and every time I win after that I press up $25 until I get to about $150 and then I go up $50 on every win until I loose. Then I go back to $25 and flat bet $25 on every loss until I win (Progressive Betting) I know that Progressive betting does not change the odds to help winning. I play perfect basic strategy and I usually always catch long run of win streaks when I play but the problem I have and I’m just not sure what to do is with doubling down. I press my bet when I win like I said but I usually always have to double down in my winning streaks and I loose most of them. I loose legitimately about 7-8 double downs out of 10 that I do. I have had family members, friends and my girlfriend watch me consistently loose. To add salt to my wounds I lose a lot of the bigger double down bets because I’m always pressing. It is to the point that I hope that I don’t get ANY double downs and hope to just win and press and if I get a blackjack in my runs that’s a bonus. I know what a lot of you are probably saying, “You’re just not remembering the days and times that you were catching all of your double downs” I can’t remember a day when it was like that. Maybe one time about 10 years ago. By losing almost all of my double downs in a sitting get stuck playing 10-12-15 hours sometimes because I’m down money. As soon as I get ahead I leave and if I do well right off the bat when I sit down 90% of the time it’s because I caught some long runs pressing (possibly with a blackjack) thrown in there with NO double downs. I actually still win money almost every time I go out and play because I’m very patient and no matter how much I’m up or down I continue to press the same way. If I just caught a few double here and there I would be up stacks instead of playing for more hours than I should have play. I actually thought about not doubling down. When my bets get up to $150, $175 plus I thought about just doubling for $25 just to play the hand correctly because its sad to say but I win money because I don’t get any doubles. Sounds crazy but I can’t make this up. I was in Vegas a few months ago and tried FREE BET Blackjack being that I didn’t have to put up the Double Down money. I only played about 3 shoes and lost most of my doubles again and pushed on about 3 dealer 22’s which is also frustrating. The table was 8 deck and BJ’s paid 6-5 which I know is not good for the player. I ended up only being down $50 and got frustrated because a few players started splitting and doubling everything against hands that they shouldn’t because it was FREE. I hate losing when people don’t hit their cards correctly and don’t play basic strategy. I know they say it doesn’t matter what other players do but that argument is for another day. That’s why I always play the first hand so I don’t have to sit behind bad players and see the cards I should get If they played there hand correctly. . If anyone has any advice or something I should do please let me know. Thanks so much.

  2. #2


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    So let me get this straight...You came on a forum for winning blackjack players to ask these players for advice as to why your progression betting method has been losing for two decades?

    Good luck to you, sir.

  3. #3


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    My progression method works just fine. I loose a high percentage of my double downs which forces me to play longer. I win money almost every session I play. If I won a higher % of my double downs my time spent playing would be cut to a minimum. Even if you count cards your still going to double your 11 into a dealer’s 6. I just wanted some advice on what I should do about doubling down. Should I just put 1 chip up just to make sure I play the hand correctly

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by ACGrinder3333 View Post
    If anyone has any advice or something I should do please let me know. Thanks so much.
    Yes, I have some advice:

    1) I don’t even know what to address first. Just forget EVERYTHING you think you know about blackjack and start all over.

    2) Please learn how to properly utilize a paragraph. That blob of text was painful to read.

  5. #5


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    Good golly! I'm not even going to try to undo your 20 plus years of set ways but I will answer your double down question.

    Use the perfect basic strategy that you claim and double down for the full amount every time. Depending on the rules you will win those doubles around 55% to 58% of the time. Have you ever kept records of your play?

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by ACGrinder3333 View Post
    <snip>I was in Vegas a few months ago and tried FREE BET Blackjack being that I didn’t have to put up the Double Down money. I only played about 3 shoes and lost most of my doubles again and pushed on about 3 dealer 22’s which is also frustrating. The table was 8 deck and BJ’s paid 6-5 which I know is not good for the player. I ended up only being down $50 and got frustrated because a few players started splitting and doubling everything against hands that they shouldn’t because it was FREE.<snip>
    ACGrinder3333,

    Wow... with 6:5 on BJ that's an awful game: the house edge is about 2.4%, depending on the actual rules.

    Be that as it may, "splitting and doubling everything" is very close to proper B.S. for that game. The Wizard of Odds has posted his B.S. at the following URL:

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/free-bet-blackjack/

    My advice is not to play this particular game. Barring that, at least learn the correct strategy.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

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    I think you misunderstood. I play 3:2, 6 deck, hand shuffle, S17 no mid shoe games. I just seem to loose every double down I do. I guess it will just be chalked up to bad luck. Believe it or not I make more money on long runs with no double downs.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    If you really are losing 70-80% of double down hands, surrender these hands rather than doubling down

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    If you really are losing 70-80% of double down hands, surrender these hands rather than doubling down
    This is actually a very interesting comment. Where doubling MAY have resulted in 1 or more cards being asked for had there not been a double, it woulD be correct to say that a lower percentage of hands would be won with the double.

    However, the additional dollars won on successful doubles more than compensates for reduced percentages won.

    The comment is further qualified by the fact that since proper doubling is plus EV, doubling for less hurts EV. Common deviations to that would be ridiculous doubles for less at minimum where cover is wanted, or steamer index type doubles where you’re a few bucks short of the full double, and don’t want to go into your pocket in order to maintain the steamer illusion.

  10. #10
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    First positive progression betting is not suited well to BJ. There is a couple of reasons for that. First the problem you are having. Most positive progressions use about a 50% press on wins but you will lose or break even on a long progression that ends in DD or split lose. You win less often when you double but win more than you would have won if you didn't double in the long run. For a progression better with big bets out having a higher percentage of wins is more important than winning in the long run. If you don't double on your bigger bets, the House Edge increases a lot, but you win more progressions. A 25% to 30% press on wins helps keep your results positive if you double and lose on your top bet. The second reason positive progressions are not well suited to BJ is because of the nature of the advantage a player gets. In disadvantage situations winning and losing streaks are longer and in advantage situations wins and losses are more choppy making your average bet lower in advantage counts and higher in disadvantage counts. The advantage you have due to deck composition in BJ is largely from getting better results on doubles and splits rather than winning more hands. The positive progression better tends to have a smaller bet out when double downs are a really good idea and larger bets when they may be negative EV doubles due to the deck composition. If you aren't counting you have no way of telling whether doubling is a good idea or not. You just know what basic strategy says.

    I would recommend learning a strong playing count and use that to help decide playing decisions and some betting decisions. You are pegged as a progression bettor by the casino. You can play a plus EV game with some counting influence on your decisions and be tolerated forever while you learn to count. Once you get counting down you can decide how to further increase EV without hurting your progression betting reputation. If you are progression betting I would recommend using slightly higher index for doubles when you have a large bet out. Smaller percentage increases for you biggest bet jumps would help as well. It is at your highest bets that small percentage bet increases are most important so a doubled loss doesn't totally destroy a long winning streak.
    Last edited by Three; 09-18-2018 at 08:48 AM.

  11. #11


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    That is asking for a lot from him Three!

  12. #12


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    Also why do you spell bettor as better?

  13. #13


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    The post is addressed to "Hi gamblers", so those who do not consider themselves as "gamblers" should not be responding.

    Second, he mentions in one of his posts that he almost always wins get says he does not like that he is losing in front of his friends.

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