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Thread: advantage at each true count

  1. #1


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    advantage at each true count

    There is an 8 deck game that I occasionally play where they deal out 7 out of 8 decks (H17, das, split to 4 hands, no surrender, no resplit aces).

    I use illustrious 18 (without splitting 10's).

    I estimate my advantage at each true count using the 0.5% per unit change in TC rule.

    The problem is I'm trying to figure my hourly EV using the advantages in this table, and the approximations might be making my hourly EV estimate way too low. I wonder if there is a resource that can provide a better approximation. Can anyone correct this table or point out a resource providing more precise advantages at each TC? Thanks!

    True count Advantage
    -8 -4.66%
    -7 -4.16%
    -6 -3.66%
    -5 -3.16%
    -4 -2.66%
    -3 -2.16%
    -2 -1.66%
    -1 -1.16%
    0 -0.66%
    1 -0.16%
    2 0.34%
    3 0.84%
    4 1.34%
    5 1.84%
    6 2.34%
    7 2.84%
    8 3.34%
    Last edited by beta; 09-13-2018 at 11:05 PM.

  2. #2


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    Just as an aside, without analyzing your rules through cvcx, I would say house advantage is somewhere between .63 and .67.you will need to adjust your table. Your showing -.66 at true 0, which is about right, but the .5 rule will not accrue on a .66 edge.

    Cvcx makes those calculations really simple. Doesn5 cost much.

  3. #3


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    I think BJA is a must read before using CVCX.
    I bought CVCX first, couldn't figure out lots of stuff in the software, then I realized that the software is called chapter X, which is the chapter 10 of BJA, so I bought the BJA.
    Hopefully, I can use CVCX software with less headache after I read the entire BJA.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by San Jose Bella View Post
    I think BJA is a must read before using CVCX.
    I bought CVCX first, couldn't figure out lots of stuff in the software, then I realized that the software is called chapter X, which is the chapter 10 of BJA, so I bought the BJA.
    Hopefully, I can use CVCX software with less headache after I read the entire BJA.
    There is an instruction manual.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by beta View Post
    There is an 8 deck game that I occasionally play where they deal out 7 out of 8 decks (H17, das, split to 4 hands, no surrender, no resplit aces).

    I use illustrious 18 (without splitting 10's).

    I estimate my advantage at each true count using the 0.5% per unit change in TC rule.

    The problem is I'm trying to figure my hourly EV using the advantages in this table, and the approximations might be making my hourly EV estimate way too low. I wonder if there is a resource that can provide a better approximation. Can anyone correct this table or point out a resource providing more precise advantages at each TC? Thanks!

    True count Advantage
    -8 -4.66%
    -7 -4.16%
    -6 -3.66%
    -5 -3.16%
    -4 -2.66%
    -3 -2.16%
    -2 -1.66%
    -1 -1.16%
    0 -0.66%
    1 -0.16%
    2 0.34%
    3 0.84%
    4 1.34%
    5 1.84%
    6 2.34%
    7 2.84%
    8 3.34%
    You want Table 10.27, p. 227 of BJA3. All the edges and TC frequencies are there (the edges alone are useless for calculating overall e.v. without the frequencies with which they occur).

    Anyway, starting at <0, and then 0, 1, 2, ..., 9, and finally >9 (so 12 values overall), the edges (in %) are, respectively:
    -1.59, -0.43, 0.15, 0.70, 1.23, 1.83, 2.42, 3.04, 3.60, 4.23, 4.70, and 6.05. So, your edge estimates are considerably too low.

    And the frequencies are: 46.11, 26.33, 10.94, 7.04, 3.39, 2.52, 1.22, 0.98, 0.47, 0.40, 0.19, and 0.40.

    You didn't provide a bet ramp. But, using a practical one of 1-16 ($10 to $160), your hourly win is $20.96 (SCORE 21.62) and hourly s.d. is $450.87. This is a game that should be back-counted, which will double the SCORE.

    Hope this helps.

    Don

  6. #6


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    Thanks Don, that's very helpful. BJA was a good book. I was not aware that there was a BJA2 and 3 as well. Thanks a lot!

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by beta View Post
    Thanks Don, that's very helpful. BJA was a good book. I was not aware that there was a BJA2 and 3 as well. Thanks a lot!
    That's hard to believe! Where have you been for 20 years???

    Don

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