Me losing 13 hands in a row

[Three]

Are you saying I should have insured my BJ?

I said that the cards on the table didn't mean a thing and you should make your decision based on the count. Your statement below indicated you were considering the likelihood of all 3 hands getting a BJ and so does your confusion over the numbers.

The first guy had opted for even money, I did not insure figuring the odds of all 3 getting a BJ was remote.

I take RA insurance for a BJ, and insure my BJ in positive running counts. There are 2 faces showing and 3 non-faces. So for insurance purposes the RC is +2 for Hiopt2 for a TC of +1. So, yes I would take RA insurance if this was off the top. My balanced ace side count couldn't factor in ace information if it weren't off the top. Ace adjusted Hilo would have an off the top RC of +1 for a TC of +0.5.

[Joe Mama]

Explain the difference between your two highlighted statements. I am a simple HiLo player, need a bit more explanation. In both cases, all 3 people (dealer and players) getting cards have a BJ. Why are the percentages different?

Think about flipping an honest coin. The probability of flipping 5 heads in 5 flips is 0.5^5 = 3.125%, the probability of flipping a fifth head after flipping 4 heads in a row is 50%. The probability of the dealer having a BJ depends upon how many ten cards are left in the deck, not whether you and/or some one else got a BJ.

[ZeeBabar]

Think about flipping an honest coin. The probability of flipping 5 heads in 5 flips is 0.5^5 = 3.125%, the probability of flipping a fifth head after flipping 4 heads in a row is 50%. The probability of the dealer having a BJ depends upon how many ten cards are left in the deck, not whether you and/or some one else got a BJ.

Got it, thanks.

[Bushie]

Got a better one from just last week.

Had 2 red 7 diamonds against dealer black 7 diamonds. I thought "fuck it I'll go for the super bonus" (this is Pontoon) and hit it.

Hit another red 7 diamonds and nabbed a $5000 payout..

[Freightman]

Got a better one from just last week.

Had 2 red 7 diamonds against dealer black 7 diamonds. I thought "fuck it I'll go for the super bonus" (this is Pontoon) and hit it.

Hit another red 7 diamonds and nabbed a $5000 payout..

Nice play. 3 frequently comments on the value of various bonus payouts at sp 21, Australian version pontoon.

Tantamount to hitting the inside straight.

[davethebuilder]

Got a better one from just last week.

Had 2 red 7 diamonds against dealer black 7 diamonds. I thought "fuck it I'll go for the super bonus" (this is Pontoon) and hit it.

Hit another red 7 diamonds and nabbed a $5000 payout..

Very lucky, Bushie. The other players at the table should also have been paid a $50 envy bonus. A playing partner of mine won it twice some years ago.

Here's some Pontoon calcs based on a 6 deck game.

Chance of being dealt two suited sevens and a dealer seven: 24/288*5/287*22/286 = 1/8954 hands.

Chance of actually winning it is 1/668,382 hands.

Also, the chance of busting with two sevens against a dealer seven in Pontoon exceeds 50% so the correct play is to split when the TC is high and rising.

[Freightman]

Very lucky, Bushie. The other players at the table should also have been paid a $50 envy bonus. A playing partner of mine won it twice some years ago.

Here's some Pontoon calcs based on a 6 deck game.

Chance of being dealt two suited sevens and a dealer seven: 24/288*5/287*22/286 = 1/8954 hands.

Chance of actually winning it is 1/668,382 hands.

Also, the chance of busting with two sevens against a dealer seven in Pontoon exceeds 50% so the correct play is to split when the TC is high and rising.

Slight goof. 24/288*5/287*4/286= once every 49249 hands.

[Freightman]

Slight goof. 24/288*5/287*4/286= once every 49249 hands.

I think there would be those who would disagree about so,itting given the bonus available b6 hitting, albeit a far poorer play if no bonus was offered.

[davethebuilder]

I'll break down the calcs a bit more:

24/288*(6-1)/(288-1)*(24-2)/(288-2) = 0.01167% = 1 in 8954 hands.

It's counter intuitive but the correct play is to split when the count is high because of the larger number of X value cards left will often result in a bust for the player. Still, if the opportunity presented itself I don't think I could resist hitting either. In addition, the normal 2:1 bonus should be paid, 3:1 if they are spades. Pontoon is quite unique and much harder to analyse and play than BJ.

[Three]

Slight goof. 24/288*5/287*4/286= once every 49249 hands.

nope, there are 4 suits with 6 sevens each at the start so the first draw is for any of 24 cards. The second seven is any seven which is any of the 23 sevens left. The third seven dealt must be the same suit as the original seven so either 5 or less commonly 4 sevens (if the dealer has a seven of the same suit as your seven) are left of that suit.

To simplify the problem we can assume the dealer gets the third card rather than the second card. Then the numbers Cards available for each draw is 24 of 286, 5 of 285, 22 of 284. That is what DTB had in his post. Then there are either 4 sevens of your sevens' suit left to win the bonus, or less commonly, 3 sevens of the right suit when all three sevens already dealt are of the same suit.

[Three]

It's counter intuitive but the correct play is to split when the count is high because of the larger number of X value cards left will often result in a bust for the player.

The index for this play is based on bet size rather than the count. With enough money out you split. Below that amount hit for the bonus. At least for the games on this side of the ocean.

[davethebuilder]

It is based on the bet size, count and the number of decks. There is a threshold value for each TC where it is better to split than hit. You will have a larger bet out at the higher TC's so this information is helpful but in the long run it doesn't make a huge difference to your win rate.

[21forme]

Nice Bushie. Once I was playing Sp21 and the woman next to me had suited 7s and the dealer had a 7. She was about to split and I suggested she not. She hit the Superbonus for $5K and didn't even say thank you. At least I got the envy bonus.