3-3 for week 4. 10-7 ATS for the season.Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21
No question about it; nobody is going to hit 60% in the long run. But one only needs to hit 52% and change to break even, which isn't as simple as it sounds, but certainly isn't impossible. The margins are tough; its a grind. I must admit learning to count cards helped better educate me about variance in sports betting.
I don't believe he was speaking about himself, per se, but anyone who bets sports. He is 100% correct. Most who bet sports don't have a great understanding of variance and when they do go on a good run, have a tendency to believe they are better than they are. I know, I've done that earlier in my own betting career.
The road-o-anemic Broncos, who are 0-10 SU & ATS in their last ten road games, not having won a game since 12/16 @ Jax...they had a chance for pull out a W in MNF, but their QB, who hasn't trown a TD since week 1, missed a WIDE OPEN receiver for a TD...sorry, Johnny, but that's no $20 MM qb...good for Denver that 3/4 have been at home, while 3/4 have been on the road for the J-E-T-S....take the JETS in a pick for today's play.
good luck,
Sharky
Last week: 1-1
Season: 2-3
week 6- Chicago/Miami Under 42, Seattle/Oakland Under 48, and Cleveland +1
Miami D better than it looks as their O gave up 2 TDs on returns. Chicago's O had a big outlier performance in their last game 2 weeks ago and comes back to earth but their D is top 5. Seattle/Oakland will be played at Wembley in the UK and I understand there have been several recent soccer games there and the "pitch" was in poor condition. Slower turf hurts speed and could limit big plays.
13-7 ATS on the season.
It seem like the Giants didn't make any improvements to their play versus the Eagles last night. If you look at the scoreboard for the Eagles. They score the same amount of points they did compare to last year game versus the Giants.
Eagles vs Giants 12/17/17 (34-29)
Eagles vs Giants 10/11/18 (34-13)
You aren't going to believe this. I went to the sports book nearest Philadelphia to bet on the Eagles -3 ATS. The board said I was getting an even money bet instead of -110, which surprised me for betting the local SB champs. Then at the betting window I got +105! I am thinking the Eagles fans must bet heavily against their team to run the odds up like that. I finally started the week on an up note. What were all these people that moved the odds thinking? I wasn't the most confident on this matchup but it was one of the ones I was more certain about. I usually lose the bet I am most confident about and win the others that I am less confident about.
Good luck everyone.
The RAAAAIIIDDERS & and Seahawks visit Wimbley Stadium today as Marshon Lynch, aka "Beast-Mode" - the REAL Beast Mode, not the made up, fantasyland ASM version, looks to take on his former D, which just a shell of the D - only Wagner remains (Wright and Thomas are out) when he 'retired' from the team on 2015...look for the RAIDERS to run the ball and if, Carr can eliminate his league leading INT (8), including 3 in the ENDZONE last week, OAKLAND won't need the points....take the RAIDERS +3 for today's play
good luck,
Sharky
Last week: 1-0
Season: 3-3
You sound like an Eagles fan. I heard the sports radio guy calling the week 5 game a must win. He said it is over if they don't win it. The Eagles lost. Now they are tied with Dallas a half game behind the first place Redskins for the division lead. Both the Eagles and the Cowboys have a 1-0 record in the division and a 2-2 record in the conference. At this point in the season you can't get any more tied than that. The Eagles are just trying to get healthy. They aren't doing a very good job of it but they are right in the thick of things. They have a SB champs schedule so it won't be easy for them. But at this point they are tied for the second wild card spot. With no multiple runaway teams in any division in the NFC they are in the thick of the wildcard race as well.
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