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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

  1. #27
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    Steelers have a history of following a bad road beat with a spectacular game at home. Look for that this week.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    Steelers -4? I hope it happens (I'm a "younser" from way back). But you must be relying on the Steeler's ownership history of the Chiefs. Certainly the Steelers play in week 1 doesn't inspire me. Steelers are perennial slow starters.
    Don't just look at the final score. The Steelers were MINUS FIVE in turnovers and still didn't lose. They also never trailed at any point. And Roethlisberger has a home/road dichotemy in his stats.

    I also think the KC defense is weak. They were in a good situation; playing on a lightning fast surface at the Stub Hub Center in LA and Tyreek Hill was going to do considerable damage on that surface. Heinz Field one of the slowest surfaces in the NFL and could very well neutralize Hill. QB Mahomes looked good in his debut, but as the league gets to see him on film, they adjust.

  3. #29
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    The JETS, fresh off of their pasting of Detroit, where rookie QB Sam Darnold completed his first NFL pass… to the Lions for a pick-6….then promptly went on to complete 16 of next 20 passes for 200 yards, 2 TDs and a 117 rating…to do that, on the road, at that age, in an NFL debut, is, frankly, amazing….Brett Farve, in his NFL Network piece this week, reminded us that his first NFL pass was, indeed, a pick 6…of course, he did say that his pass was “perfect”…just went through the hands of the receiver…anyways, not saying this guy is, or will be a HOF…but I will ride the momentum of that win to a -2.5 play this week

    Good luck,

    Sharky

    Last week: 1-0

    Season: 1-0

  4. #30
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    I did well the first week of the NFL season. I stopped doing my own analysis of stats because when they changed the rules handcuffing the defense what had been so effective for me for decades didn't work anymore. I won't post picks or what teams I bet on but I made a profit of about 58% of my total bet the first week. As often happens the game I felt the strongest about was a loser but almost every other matchup I bet on won. I am pleased to see my picks for this weak are being made by those that have did well in week one. I am trying to see how using a vetted group of other people's research works out for me in predicting outcomes. So far things are working nicely. Hopefully they will continue to work well. Good luck this week.

  5. #31


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    Sagarin has good power ratings but they don't become good until more games are played. Needless to say, sample size issues at this point for both pro and college.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    yeah, Sagarin obviously uses last season to compile ratings this early
    interesting - the Browns just tied the Steelers but he still has the Steelers more than 8 points better than the Browns
    think things will stay the same? (fave) think things will change? ( dog)
    I was anticipating improvement from the Browns this year. Their QB play last year was historically bad. They were minus 28 in turnovers last year. Yet they go plus 5 in week one and still don't win? That is almost impossible to do. Pittsburgh probably is legitimately 8 power rating points superior to Cleveland. Last year, it would've been closer to 14 points.

  7. #33


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    That 6.5 may look tempting for Carolina, but my advice would be don't do it. While Charlotte isn't likely to get a direct hit from the hurricane, they are expecting considerable flooding. Ever have a flooded basement or house? THAT is a huge distraction. We saw two teams last year (Houston in week 1 and Jax in week 2) dealing with hurricanes and both got blown out.

  8. #34
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    I hope you are wrong. Carolina is a key play in a lot of my bets. The hurricane is weak now and will mostly be a ton of rain. Charlotte is pretty far inland but they are calling for 6 to 10 inches of rain there before things get back to normal.

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    A hurricane should never be taken lightly and certainly never considered to be "weak"! By far, most of the damage and casualties are caused by the flooding and not the wind.

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I hope you are wrong. Carolina is a key play in a lot of my bets. The hurricane is weak now and will mostly be a ton of rain. Charlotte is pretty far inland but they are calling for 6 to 10 inches of rain there before things get back to normal.
    If you don't know WIND is more of a factor then RAIN in the outcome of a game, especially in TOTALS,

  11. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    A hurricane should never be taken lightly and certainly never considered to be "weak"! By far, most of the damage and casualties are caused by the flooding and not the wind.
    I said "weak now" indicating it has weakened from its previous category 4 almost category 5 state to a category 1. I probably should have said "weaker now" just to be clear. I loved a big chunk of my adult life on a barrier island and road out every hurricane that hit in that time. I helped many people through tragedy or to avert tragedy. The last thing a hurricane does where I lived was cross the cold labrador current before making landfall. That assured the storm would not strengthen just before making landfall. Those that live where the gulf stream is the last thing a hurricane crosses are crazy not to bug out. A cat 1 can come a cat 5 just before making landfall. The Carolinians can thank their lucky stars that this one became the weakest category storm just before making landfall. It had flirted with becoming a category 5 hurricane just before it weakened. But they will still have to deal with storm surge, strong winds and lots of rain driven flooding because the storm is going to hang over them for a day or two before moving off rather tan zipping by as most tropical systems do.

  12. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle View Post
    If you don't know WIND is more of a factor then RAIN in the outcome of a game, especially in TOTALS,
    The game is in a domed stadium. Winds inside the stadium are forecasted to be calm and rain is forecasted to be non-existent. Of course if the dome gets ripped off who knows what will happen.

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle View Post
    If you don't know WIND is more of a factor then RAIN in the outcome of a game, especially in TOTALS,
    In the actual playing of the game (not in this case because the game is played indoors). As for the psychological distraction, flooding >>> high winds.

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