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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.j..
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky

  2. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky
    The Mack trade and Bell being out was pure positive variance for me. I doubt Mack plays more than 20 snaps Sunday night as he has been holding out. And as good as Bell is, most realize that RB is the most easily replaceable position in the NFL. As for Wentz, there was a pretty good chance he wouldn't be ready for week 1. He had his surgery in December. ACL surgery, not a little pinky.

    The picks were either about teams I felt that would improve (Cleveland, Chicago, Denver) or teams I for which I see regression (Buffalo, Seattle and Philly).

    I will most likely pass week 2 completely and only tread mildly in week 3 before getting ready to fire from that point on. Too much overreaction and temptation to overreact for week 2. That goes for college or the NFL.

    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.

  3. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.
    then you posted 5 bets in which the lines all moved in your favor, by a lot in 3 of them.
    it looks like you didn't post the games where the lines didn't move in your favor or moved against you.
    16 games in week 1.
    I'm not saying that you bet all of them.
    but many who bet that early (July 4) do.
    if you bet many others then in those 5 your results are likely to be better than in the others.
    the bets that you posted here are not useful to anybody because those lines are no longer available.
    unless you were trying to show that you are able to predict line movements.
    and you have not shown that.
    if you would like to show the bjtf community that you can predict line movements then you can post your picks for Week 2 on Tuesday morning when the early lines come out.
    Good Luck.


    btw: for those who may not know. if a person correctly predicts a line movement or spots a significant difference in the lines between 2 different books they can then "middle" the game which is potentially advantageous although statistics for what the edge may be or how to calculate or if it even exists at all is not an easy thing to prove.


    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/vi...on-an-nfl-bet/
    I went to Reno July 4 to make RSW total bets. THOSE are the big bets. But you are completely wrong; anyone who is betting week 1 NFL two months early is most definitely NOT betting every game on the board. The only people who bet every game on the board are squares and/or degenerates. I never have to bet.

    The reason I like to make them that early is the line moves don't really start until exhibition season starts. But for anyone who REALLY follows the NFL, all these moves were not difficult to see. Buffalo was a fraudulent playoff team last year; Cleveland probably should've won 5 games last year but had a QB that was a turnover machine; you take the Buffalo QB (Taylor) from last year and put him on Cleveland, guess what: Cleveland is now better than Buffalo. Chicago has had more starter games lost to injury in 2016-2017 than any other team. Injuries are random and tend to even out. Chicago also had a rookie QB with basically NO receiving weapons last year and they addressed that problem in free agency. Denver had the single most difficult schedule in 2017 and had horrific QB play and they have solidly upgraded at that position. I also really like that first rounder they took and they will always have a strong HFA playing at one mile altitude. Divisional opponents are used to it but Seattle is not. As for tonight, Atlanta is good. Very good. They should've won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, and probably should've beaten the Eagles in the playoffs last year. The offense struggled a bit getting used to Sarkasian as OC but in the second year they should improve. They are loaded with weapons so no excuses.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    I went to Reno July 4 to make RSW total bets. THOSE are the big bets. But you are completely wrong; anyone who is betting week 1 NFL two months early is most definitely NOT betting every game on the board. The only people who bet every game on the board are squares and/or degenerates. I never have to bet.

    The reason I like to make them that early is the line moves don't really start until exhibition season starts. But for anyone who REALLY follows the NFL, all these moves were not difficult to see. Buffalo was a fraudulent playoff team last year; Cleveland probably should've won 5 games last year but had a QB that was a turnover machine; you take the Buffalo QB (Taylor) from last year and put him on Cleveland, guess what: Cleveland is now better than Buffalo. Chicago has had more starter games lost to injury in 2016-2017 than any other team. Injuries are random and tend to even out. Chicago also had a rookie QB with basically NO receiving weapons last year and they addressed that problem in free agency. Denver had the single most difficult schedule in 2017 and had horrific QB play and they have solidly upgraded at that position. I also really like that first rounder they took and they will always have a strong HFA playing at one mile altitude. Divisional opponents are used to it but Seattle is not. As for tonight, Atlanta is good. Very good. They should've won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, and probably should've beaten the Eagles in the playoffs last year. The offense struggled a bit getting used to Sarkasian as OC but in the second year they should improve. They are loaded with weapons so no excuses.


    that's fine my friend. I accept your answer.
    I'm sure everybody here would like to see more of your predictions hopefully for week 2.
    Good Luck.
    "Life is so short. So nobody should miss a chance to get into nasty arguments with strangers on the internet."

  5. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    that's fine my friend. I accept your answer.
    I'm sure everybody here would like to see more of your predictions hopefully for week 2.
    Good Luck.
    I will be back but doubt much for week 2. Notice I didn't bet any totals. The new rules re: tackling could have a big impact. But we will see re: how some of those teams I like in week 1 perform. If they do well, I wouldn't rule out coming back with some of them in week 2. The value windows don't last long. If the linemaker doesn't react quick enough, the sharps will do it for them.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.

  7. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.
    True, but in this case I will make them equal. You just don't get that many chances to get a middle with BOTH 3 and 4. This is sports betting basic strategy. While I liked Atlanta, a Philly win wouldn't shock me.

  8. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!

  9. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    But a middling situation where one can win with an outcome of Philly winning by 3 or 4 is too good to pass up. This is like a high count and splitting 10s against the dealer's 6. Too much EV.

    Philly + 1 (Heritage) for the middle to go with the Atlanta +4.5 (Silver Legacy)

    Even I, as one who liked Atlanta originally, thinks this line move is overdone. The linemakers aren't off by THAT much very often.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    Philly is a very hostile environment for opposing fans. Seriously you could get hurt very bad or worse. Just be like a spy and blend in. If you inadvertently cheer say you have that guy on your fantasy football team but act like you are rooting for the Eagles. Think of it like your AP act in a casino. You want to have your enjoyment and get out unscathed.

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