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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.
    True, but in this case I will make them equal. You just don't get that many chances to get a middle with BOTH 3 and 4. This is sports betting basic strategy. While I liked Atlanta, a Philly win wouldn't shock me.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    But a middling situation where one can win with an outcome of Philly winning by 3 or 4 is too good to pass up. This is like a high count and splitting 10s against the dealer's 6. Too much EV.

    Philly + 1 (Heritage) for the middle to go with the Atlanta +4.5 (Silver Legacy)

    Even I, as one who liked Atlanta originally, thinks this line move is overdone. The linemakers aren't off by THAT much very often.

  4. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    Philly is a very hostile environment for opposing fans. Seriously you could get hurt very bad or worse. Just be like a spy and blend in. If you inadvertently cheer say you have that guy on your fantasy football team but act like you are rooting for the Eagles. Think of it like your AP act in a casino. You want to have your enjoyment and get out unscathed.

  5. #18
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    This is a revenge game from the playoffs. Take Atlanta. Revenge games are a big angle play.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    .................................................. ..




    If Foles brings his A game the Falcons are toast.
    Foles is not a typical second stringer.
    He's put up some fabulous numbers for Philly in some of his games with them.
    Yes, he's also been erratic.
    A game - great - B game - mediocre or sub par.
    Foles had a great run his first year when Kelly coached Philly and a great run in last year's postseason. In between those periods, he was subpar to poor. He's probably better than he showed during the dismal years but last season's playoff run was an outlier from him. He's still a downgrade from Wentz by about 3 points to the team power rating.

  7. #20


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    Sharky,

    I'm actually not against you on this one. I thought I had bet it in Reno but didn't. I've had time to get the Giants +3 but that is gone. Can't bet them at +2.5. The one thing that kept me off the game is Coughlin. Normally non-conference road teams are playing low priority games. I suspect Coughlin's presence in the Jags front office will mean this isn't just another run of the mill non conference road game. Not that I'm taking Jax, either. Going to sit it out. 7 minutes til gametime.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    nice calls dude. you went 4-1. impressive. Sharky had a nice win too. I tanked.


    I've decided that I can't pick NFL games with success. It's not in my DNA. I'm better in other sports.
    So I've decided to cheat.
    I'm using thespread.com to see where the early money is bet and I'm going to bet with the early money which comes from, I believe, mostly sharps. I get the early line before it moves against me, although it's possible I would get a better deal by waiting. Believe time is on my side. Late news such as injuries that I can't use is zero sum - could help me or hurt - equally possible.


    week 2 - Green Bay - 1.5 over minnesota (william hill right now)
    Thanks Drunk. I actually tried to middle the Falcons/Eagles game (posted earlier) so it actually cancelled out the loss. But if we are tracking, I will accept the loss there. Had a real good feeling on some weak 2017 teams showing improvement.

    Re: the Packers next week, be very,very careful. If you watched that game last night, it was an incredible comeback by GB to pull out a win that seemed like a certain loss. Rodgers has to be in tremendous pain today. The adrenaline and cortisone has wore off. It was an ugly injury. I can't remember seeing a player taken off on a cart only to return later in the game. I also think Chicago lost it more than GB won it. The Bears figured the game was won and went very conservative. I also think their energy expediture from the first half cost them in the second half. Just look at Mack; he had an amazing first half but was barely heard from in the second half. He was gassed.

  9. #22


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    Philadelphia Eagles need to borrow from New England Patriot's playbook to beat the Atlantic Falcons:

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...tlanta-falcons

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Philadelphia Eagles need to borrow from New England Patriot's playbook to beat the Atlantic Falcons:

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...tlanta-falcons
    The article said Philly used a version of the old "Philly Philly" play to beat the Falcons. And said the Patriots borrowed it from Philly in the SB.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The article said Philly used a version of the old "Philly Philly" play to beat the Falcons. And said the Patriots borrowed it from Philly in the SB.
    Yes, I reread the article and read it wrong the first time. I acknowledge that is it a mistake.

  12. #25


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    4-1 in week 1. I am on three plays this week:

    Miami/NY Jets Under 43
    Pittsburgh -4
    NY Giants +3

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    4-1 in week 1. I am on three plays this week:

    Miami/NY Jets Under 43
    Pittsburgh -4
    NY Giants +3
    Steelers -4? I hope it happens (I'm a "younser" from way back). But you must be relying on the Steeler's ownership history of the Chiefs. Certainly the Steelers play in week 1 doesn't inspire me. Steelers are perennial slow starters.

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