Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

**Three** · 10-15-2018, 12:51 PM

Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21

Tennessee was dreadful yesterday. They were in a great spot with Baltimore in its 3rd straight road game, after playing two divisional rivals (Pitt & Cleve) the previous two weeks, and yet allowed 11 QB sacks and were shut out.

One sack short of the league team sack record for a single game.

**Sharky** · 10-15-2018, 01:12 PM

you said the Titans were one of the worst teams, which is laughable...likely to win their division...also, the Raven are one of the best teams, especially on D...watch and see them make a bunch of offenses look bad

**seriousplayer** · 10-15-2018, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21

The Rams are the best team in the NFL. The team to fade is Kansas City; their defensive performance on 3rd down (high leverage) is much better than their overall defensive performance. That isn't sustainable, and their 3rd down rate likely will eventually fall into line with their dismal defensive efficiency rating. They also are a purely offensive team, which appeals to square bettors, putting value on the other side.

Yes, you made a point. Kansas City Chiefs had two interceptions when playing the Patriots last night that's why they lost. The Chiefs are explosive players. They came back fast at the 3rd quarter but was unable to control and restrict the Patriots' offense.

**DoubleDownSoft21** · 10-15-2018, 02:09 PM

KC also started out 5-0 last year. The league had no film on Mahomes but with each game, they are finding out more about his tendencies. Also as we move deeper into the season and the weather gets colder in KC, the speed/physicality dynamic shifts.

**Three** · 10-15-2018, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by Sharky

you said the Titans were one of the worst teams, which is laughable.

Come on man. I said they would be one of the worst except that their defense is so strong. Are you really that bad at comprehending a simple sentence.

Originally Posted by Three

The Titans would suck too except their defense is so strong they might eek out some more wins.

The Titan offense is endemic, averaging less than 12 points in their last 4 games, so they would need to win with their defense or play a team that has an equally bad offense. Not a lot of great matchups there. We will see how they do going forward. They clearly aren't going to blow out many teams. They play a small subset of that group. Each year it gets harder for a defense to carry a team due to the NFL's continued neutering of defenders. We will see how well the Titans' poor offense can be carried by the Titans' great defense.

**Three** · 10-15-2018, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by seriousplayer

Yes, you made a point. Kansas City Chiefs had two interceptions when playing the Patriots last night that's why they lost. The Chiefs are explosive players. They came back fast at the 3rd quarter but was unable to control and restrict the Patriots' offense.

Well they had Brady in their grasp on 3rd down but the defender thought Brady had already thrown the ball and didn't want a roughing the passer penalty so he let him go. Brady ran for a TD instead of a field goal. I don't think that really affected anything though. The Patriots would have most likely got a TD on their final drive because the Chiefs couldn't stop them all game long. They would have traded a field goal for the early TD that Brady ran in for for a TD in the final seconds instead of the game winning field goal they kicked. The same score either way. You never know KC might have stopped them when the field got short, but I wouldn't have bet on it.

**DoubleDownSoft21** · 10-15-2018, 02:43 PM

Football Outsiders has Tennessee's D ranked as 12th best. A bit above average but not top level. When we look at the offenses they've gone up against: Miami (18th), Houston (23rd), Jax (22nd), Philly (24th), Buffalo (32nd) and Baltimore (14th), clearly schedule strength is playing a big role.

**Three** · 10-15-2018, 03:08 PM

Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21

Football Outsiders has Tennessee's D ranked as 12th best. A bit above average but not top level. When we look at the offenses they've gone up against: Miami (18th), Houston (23rd), Jax (22nd), Philly (24th), Buffalo (32nd) and Baltimore (14th), clearly schedule strength is playing a big role.

Sharky says the Titans will win the division. I really don't see a stand out team in the FC South so I guess it is possible. But if Houston gets healthy I might think they are the best of the division. So far they have been hobbled by injuries to many key players. They may never get healthy. Certainly Tennessee has been winning the injury battle in the division. The Colts are plagued with injuries. And Jacksonville's depth is being tested on offense. If nobody gels with those stepping up or nobody can get healthy fast enough I could seek the Titans having the inside track in the division. Most likely some team will be patient enough with the injuries to let their athletes heal up properly before the put them back out there. So far that hasn't been the case.

**seriousplayer** · 10-15-2018, 06:03 PM

Originally Posted by drunk

the Chiefs lost by only 3 points to the Patriots in Foxborough - a rookie QB against maybe the greatest QB ever
the Pats crushed the Dolphins by 31 there a couple of weeks ago

agree that they're not likely to keep it up - but they are exciting

I wouldn't say that Mahomes is not going to end up being one of the great ones.
I'm not sure either way. but I have no criticism of him.

Almost every AP sports better and Patriots fans know the Patriots possess two advantages. Maybe three now after the discussion with Three about the Patriots. The Patriots' two advantages are

1. Their head coach (Bill Belichick)
2. Their quarterback (Tom Brady)

and from Three

3. Cheating (Maybe Patriots fans would disagree).

So as an advantage player which team will you bet on? Of course, they will go with the team that possess an advantage.

**seriousplayer** · 10-15-2018, 06:11 PM

See this is what they should do to the Philadelphia Eagle fans.

DpkRF9KUUAA0oq4.jpg

**Sharky** · 10-16-2018, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by drunk

...they are 6.5 or 7 point dogs to the Chargers for week 7.
they are away, b..

it's a neutral field at Wimbley....but agree the line is higher then expected....after that performance at home (more sacks then completion 11 vs 10)...I would stay away from this one

**DoubleDownSoft21** · 10-17-2018, 09:15 AM

Originally Posted by drunk

not really in on the discussion about the Titans. they are a team that's always kind of mystified me
just wanted to note that they are 6.5 or 7 point dogs to the Chargers for week 7.
they are away, but still, that's a lot and reflects the general opinion of them

My initial thought was it was too much for a neutral site game (London), but then digging into the numbers, Tennessee is a bad team. But the London games are high variance; sometimes some teams are just clueless in preparing. Last week, the Raiders decided to fly out on Thursday and clearly it didn't work. Or maybe they are just so bad, it didn't matter. I suspect the Chargers didn't come back to LA after Sunday as they were already in the Eastern time zone (Cleveland) and probably left straight for London.