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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

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  1. #1
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    Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

    The 2017 NFL rushing leading Jaguars, who, incidentally, added All-Pro LG Andrew Norwell, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the only NFL lineman to not allow a sack or even a QB hit all of last year…YIKES….run Fornette, run…take the JAGUARS -3 to jump start the NFL campaign with an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky

    Last season: shitty

    Previous season: shitty, too

    Previously: good

    Overall: (prob even...which is an accomplishment considering the new NFL)
    Last edited by Sharky; 09-03-2018 at 10:06 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    The 2017 NFL rushing leading Jaguars, who, incidentally, added All-Pro LG Andrew Norwell, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the only NFL lineman to not allow a sack or even a QB hit all of last year…YIKES….run Fornette, run…take the JAGUARS -3 to jump start the NFL campaign with an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky


    Last season: shitty

    Previous season: shitty, too

    Previously: good

    Overall: (prob even...which is an accomplishment considering the new NFL)
    Sorry Sharkey but I'm on the other side. I love several plays in week 1 and bet them all on July 4th. All have moved in my favor. Now that doesn't guarantee they will win, but the object is to beat the number.

    The problem with the Giants last year was a non-existant running game. Drafting Barkley should balance out the offense. Jax D will be good but they are likely due for some regression on offense: 13th in yards/play last year but first in offensive red zone conversion. A non-conference road game is the lowest priority game for any team, so this game means more for the Giants than Jax.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Sorry Sharkey but I'm on the other side. I love several plays in week 1 and bet them all on July 4th....
    ok...so you fancy the gmen....be sure to put the "several plays" on tape - b4 the games start, of course - so we can all benefit

    good luck

    Sharky

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    ok...so you fancy the gmen....be sure to put the "several plays" on tape - b4 the games start, of course - so we can all benefit

    good luck

    Sharky
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. Some have moved significantly. Like I said earlier, all five could lose. But the object is to beat the number, and if you do that, in the long run you will be OK. Kind of like blackjack; the object is to play (and bet) correctly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. ...
    the object is to let everyone know what your lines are, or don't bother posting....last thing we need is an expert "handicapper" who wins every bet w/in +/- 2 points of spead

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    the object is to let everyone know what your lines are, or don't bother posting....last thing we need is an expert "handicapper" who wins every bet w/in +/- 2 points of spead
    Opening lines were out months ago. All those games have moved. Week 1 always has the biggest line moves because the market has more time to adjust. I don't give a shit whether anyone else here follows me or not, but they would be wise not to dismiss what I say on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.j..
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky
    The Mack trade and Bell being out was pure positive variance for me. I doubt Mack plays more than 20 snaps Sunday night as he has been holding out. And as good as Bell is, most realize that RB is the most easily replaceable position in the NFL. As for Wentz, there was a pretty good chance he wouldn't be ready for week 1. He had his surgery in December. ACL surgery, not a little pinky.

    The picks were either about teams I felt that would improve (Cleveland, Chicago, Denver) or teams I for which I see regression (Buffalo, Seattle and Philly).

    I will most likely pass week 2 completely and only tread mildly in week 3 before getting ready to fire from that point on. Too much overreaction and temptation to overreact for week 2. That goes for college or the NFL.

    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.
    True, but in this case I will make them equal. You just don't get that many chances to get a middle with BOTH 3 and 4. This is sports betting basic strategy. While I liked Atlanta, a Philly win wouldn't shock me.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!

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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    But a middling situation where one can win with an outcome of Philly winning by 3 or 4 is too good to pass up. This is like a high count and splitting 10s against the dealer's 6. Too much EV.

    Philly + 1 (Heritage) for the middle to go with the Atlanta +4.5 (Silver Legacy)

    Even I, as one who liked Atlanta originally, thinks this line move is overdone. The linemakers aren't off by THAT much very often.

  13. #13
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    This is a revenge game from the playoffs. Take Atlanta. Revenge games are a big angle play.

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