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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

  1. #1
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    Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

    The 2017 NFL rushing leading Jaguars, who, incidentally, added All-Pro LG Andrew Norwell, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the only NFL lineman to not allow a sack or even a QB hit all of last year…YIKES….run Fornette, run…take the JAGUARS -3 to jump start the NFL campaign with an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky

    Last season: shitty

    Previous season: shitty, too

    Previously: good

    Overall: (prob even...which is an accomplishment considering the new NFL)
    Last edited by Sharky; 09-03-2018 at 10:06 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    The 2017 NFL rushing leading Jaguars, who, incidentally, added All-Pro LG Andrew Norwell, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the only NFL lineman to not allow a sack or even a QB hit all of last year…YIKES….run Fornette, run…take the JAGUARS -3 to jump start the NFL campaign with an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky


    Last season: shitty

    Previous season: shitty, too

    Previously: good

    Overall: (prob even...which is an accomplishment considering the new NFL)
    Sorry Sharkey but I'm on the other side. I love several plays in week 1 and bet them all on July 4th. All have moved in my favor. Now that doesn't guarantee they will win, but the object is to beat the number.

    The problem with the Giants last year was a non-existant running game. Drafting Barkley should balance out the offense. Jax D will be good but they are likely due for some regression on offense: 13th in yards/play last year but first in offensive red zone conversion. A non-conference road game is the lowest priority game for any team, so this game means more for the Giants than Jax.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Sorry Sharkey but I'm on the other side. I love several plays in week 1 and bet them all on July 4th....
    ok...so you fancy the gmen....be sure to put the "several plays" on tape - b4 the games start, of course - so we can all benefit

    good luck

    Sharky

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    ok...so you fancy the gmen....be sure to put the "several plays" on tape - b4 the games start, of course - so we can all benefit

    good luck

    Sharky
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. Some have moved significantly. Like I said earlier, all five could lose. But the object is to beat the number, and if you do that, in the long run you will be OK. Kind of like blackjack; the object is to play (and bet) correctly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. ...
    the object is to let everyone know what your lines are, or don't bother posting....last thing we need is an expert "handicapper" who wins every bet w/in +/- 2 points of spead

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    the object is to let everyone know what your lines are, or don't bother posting....last thing we need is an expert "handicapper" who wins every bet w/in +/- 2 points of spead
    Opening lines were out months ago. All those games have moved. Week 1 always has the biggest line moves because the market has more time to adjust. I don't give a shit whether anyone else here follows me or not, but they would be wise not to dismiss what I say on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

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    No one can follow you if you don't post the lines

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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    No one can follow you if you don't post the lines
    Falcons +4.5
    Baltimore -4.5
    Denver -2
    Cleveland +6.5
    Chicago +8.5

    All bets placed at the Silver Legacy (William Hill book) in Reno July 4th.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.j..
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky
    The Mack trade and Bell being out was pure positive variance for me. I doubt Mack plays more than 20 snaps Sunday night as he has been holding out. And as good as Bell is, most realize that RB is the most easily replaceable position in the NFL. As for Wentz, there was a pretty good chance he wouldn't be ready for week 1. He had his surgery in December. ACL surgery, not a little pinky.

    The picks were either about teams I felt that would improve (Cleveland, Chicago, Denver) or teams I for which I see regression (Buffalo, Seattle and Philly).

    I will most likely pass week 2 completely and only tread mildly in week 3 before getting ready to fire from that point on. Too much overreaction and temptation to overreact for week 2. That goes for college or the NFL.

    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.
    then you posted 5 bets in which the lines all moved in your favor, by a lot in 3 of them.
    it looks like you didn't post the games where the lines didn't move in your favor or moved against you.
    16 games in week 1.
    I'm not saying that you bet all of them.
    but many who bet that early (July 4) do.
    if you bet many others then in those 5 your results are likely to be better than in the others.
    the bets that you posted here are not useful to anybody because those lines are no longer available.
    unless you were trying to show that you are able to predict line movements.
    and you have not shown that.
    if you would like to show the bjtf community that you can predict line movements then you can post your picks for Week 2 on Tuesday morning when the early lines come out.
    Good Luck.


    btw: for those who may not know. if a person correctly predicts a line movement or spots a significant difference in the lines between 2 different books they can then "middle" the game which is potentially advantageous although statistics for what the edge may be or how to calculate or if it even exists at all is not an easy thing to prove.


    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/vi...on-an-nfl-bet/
    I went to Reno July 4 to make RSW total bets. THOSE are the big bets. But you are completely wrong; anyone who is betting week 1 NFL two months early is most definitely NOT betting every game on the board. The only people who bet every game on the board are squares and/or degenerates. I never have to bet.

    The reason I like to make them that early is the line moves don't really start until exhibition season starts. But for anyone who REALLY follows the NFL, all these moves were not difficult to see. Buffalo was a fraudulent playoff team last year; Cleveland probably should've won 5 games last year but had a QB that was a turnover machine; you take the Buffalo QB (Taylor) from last year and put him on Cleveland, guess what: Cleveland is now better than Buffalo. Chicago has had more starter games lost to injury in 2016-2017 than any other team. Injuries are random and tend to even out. Chicago also had a rookie QB with basically NO receiving weapons last year and they addressed that problem in free agency. Denver had the single most difficult schedule in 2017 and had horrific QB play and they have solidly upgraded at that position. I also really like that first rounder they took and they will always have a strong HFA playing at one mile altitude. Divisional opponents are used to it but Seattle is not. As for tonight, Atlanta is good. Very good. They should've won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, and probably should've beaten the Eagles in the playoffs last year. The offense struggled a bit getting used to Sarkasian as OC but in the second year they should improve. They are loaded with weapons so no excuses.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    that's fine my friend. I accept your answer.
    I'm sure everybody here would like to see more of your predictions hopefully for week 2.
    Good Luck.
    I will be back but doubt much for week 2. Notice I didn't bet any totals. The new rules re: tackling could have a big impact. But we will see re: how some of those teams I like in week 1 perform. If they do well, I wouldn't rule out coming back with some of them in week 2. The value windows don't last long. If the linemaker doesn't react quick enough, the sharps will do it for them.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.

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