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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

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    Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

    The 2017 NFL rushing leading Jaguars, who, incidentally, added All-Pro LG Andrew Norwell, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the only NFL lineman to not allow a sack or even a QB hit all of last year…YIKES….run Fornette, run…take the JAGUARS -3 to jump start the NFL campaign with an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky

    Last season: shitty

    Previous season: shitty, too

    Previously: good

    Overall: (prob even...which is an accomplishment considering the new NFL)
    Last edited by Sharky; 09-03-2018 at 10:06 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    The 2017 NFL rushing leading Jaguars, who, incidentally, added All-Pro LG Andrew Norwell, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the only NFL lineman to not allow a sack or even a QB hit all of last year…YIKES….run Fornette, run…take the JAGUARS -3 to jump start the NFL campaign with an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky


    Last season: shitty

    Previous season: shitty, too

    Previously: good

    Overall: (prob even...which is an accomplishment considering the new NFL)
    Sorry Sharkey but I'm on the other side. I love several plays in week 1 and bet them all on July 4th. All have moved in my favor. Now that doesn't guarantee they will win, but the object is to beat the number.

    The problem with the Giants last year was a non-existant running game. Drafting Barkley should balance out the offense. Jax D will be good but they are likely due for some regression on offense: 13th in yards/play last year but first in offensive red zone conversion. A non-conference road game is the lowest priority game for any team, so this game means more for the Giants than Jax.

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    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    .................................................. ........................



    going to bet against the Redskins; a pick 'em game at Mirage, Stations and William Hill right now. not that I love the Cardinals. but the Skins are a discombobulated IMO hopeless franchise mired in mediocrity with lots of new, and undependable personnel. Alex Smith is there but I don't believe he has enough mojo to jump start the Skins into something other than boring.
    Last edited by drunk; 09-04-2018 at 03:51 PM.
    "Life is so short. So nobody should miss a chance to get into nasty arguments with strangers on the internet."

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Sorry Sharkey but I'm on the other side. I love several plays in week 1 and bet them all on July 4th....
    ok...so you fancy the gmen....be sure to put the "several plays" on tape - b4 the games start, of course - so we can all benefit

    good luck

    Sharky

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    ok...so you fancy the gmen....be sure to put the "several plays" on tape - b4 the games start, of course - so we can all benefit

    good luck

    Sharky
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. Some have moved significantly. Like I said earlier, all five could lose. But the object is to beat the number, and if you do that, in the long run you will be OK. Kind of like blackjack; the object is to play (and bet) correctly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. ...
    the object is to let everyone know what your lines are, or don't bother posting....last thing we need is an expert "handicapper" who wins every bet w/in +/- 2 points of spead

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    the object is to let everyone know what your lines are, or don't bother posting....last thing we need is an expert "handicapper" who wins every bet w/in +/- 2 points of spead
    Opening lines were out months ago. All those games have moved. Week 1 always has the biggest line moves because the market has more time to adjust. I don't give a shit whether anyone else here follows me or not, but they would be wise not to dismiss what I say on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

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    No one can follow you if you don't post the lines

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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    No one can follow you if you don't post the lines
    Falcons +4.5
    Baltimore -4.5
    Denver -2
    Cleveland +6.5
    Chicago +8.5

    All bets placed at the Silver Legacy (William Hill book) in Reno July 4th.

  10. #10
    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Some of the bets I made that the line has moved in my favor are the Giants, the Bears, the Browns, the Ravens and Falcons. Some have moved significantly. Like I said earlier, all five could lose. But the object is to beat the number, and if you do that, in the long run you will be OK. Kind of like blackjack; the object is to play (and bet) correctly.
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.
    then you posted 5 bets in which the lines all moved in your favor, by a lot in 3 of them.
    it looks like you didn't post the games where the lines didn't move in your favor or moved against you.
    16 games in week 1.
    I'm not saying that you bet all of them.
    but many who bet that early (July 4) do.
    if you bet many others then in those 5 your results are likely to be better than in the others.
    the bets that you posted here are not useful to anybody because those lines are no longer available.
    unless you were trying to show that you are able to predict line movements.
    and you have not shown that.
    if you would like to show the bjtf community that you can predict line movements then you can post your picks for Week 2 on Tuesday morning when the early lines come out.
    Good Luck.


    btw: for those who may not know. if a person correctly predicts a line movement or spots a significant difference in the lines between 2 different books they can then "middle" the game which is potentially advantageous although statistics for what the edge may be or how to calculate or if it even exists at all is not an easy thing to prove.


    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/vi...on-an-nfl-bet/
    Last edited by drunk; 09-06-2018 at 03:44 AM.
    "Life is so short. So nobody should miss a chance to get into nasty arguments with strangers on the internet."

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