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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

  1. #40


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    Then why mention the weather. If you are thinking about future bets you are too far out for a weather forecast or anything else.

  2. #41


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    Are you the old Moses? I noticed a reference in one of your other post-RENO.

  3. #42


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    Quote Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle View Post
    Then why mention the weather. If you are thinking about future bets you are too far out for a weather forecast or anything else.
    Have you ever had a flooded basement or house? Obviously not, because if you have, it's a tremendous distraction physically and emotionally. It will f-k up your house for awhile.

    Players don't live in a vacuum. They are vulnerable to disasters like anyone else.

    And even with a late garbage TD, Carolina still couldn't cover.

  4. #43


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    4-1 in week 1. I am on three plays this week:

    Miami/NY Jets Under 43
    Pittsburgh -4
    NY Giants +3
    1-2 on the week and 5-3 on the season.

  5. #44


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    interesting data mining from statistician Mike Shackleford. He retrieved data from the NFL going back to 2006. according to his data by blindly betting away underdogs you would shave more than 3% off of the the HA which is usually quoted at 4.55%; but when I calculate it I get 4.762%. maybe the difference is because I didn't consider pushes.
    also, the away team when the game is a pick 'em did very well although only a small sample size.

    I think the reason for this is the NFL is about the only sport where square money (public) moves the market. The public gets involved in the NFL more than any other sport, and Joe Public loves to bet based on win/loss records, so they pound a lot of chalk.

    Also, Shackleford's numbers go back to 2006. We have seen a gradual decline in the past decade or so in terms of the effect of home field advantage. Better travel conditions and planning probably has something to do with it. Denver is still, and probably will always be the biggest HFA, due to the altitude factor.

  6. #45
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    Including losing the Carolina bets I gave back about half of my first weeks winnings in week 2. I did well in the prime time games that kept me from being down for the year. My profit is now 12% of my total bet for the year.

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Denver is still, and probably will always be the biggest HFA, due to the altitude factor.
    Yes, the only home field advantage that adds an actual physical advantage to everyone else's home field advantage.

  8. #47


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    By now, most have probably heard the story about Fan Duel and the "glitch" in their computer system. If not, a player made a $110 wager (in game) with about 1:30 to play in the Denver/Raiders game. His wager was that the Broncos would come from behind to win. Fan Duel listed the payoff at 75,000-1. Yes, anyone reasonable knows that was an extremely flawed number (2-1 would've been more accurate). Denver won, but Fan Duel refused to cash the ticket. Clearly a free roll. No question if the player lost, the bet wouldn't have been voided. I'm not sure what the final settlement should be, but it should be more than $500 and a couple Sky Box tickets to see a bad Giants team (which is what Fan Duel offered the bettor). Fan Duel should face some sort of punishment for their ignorance and negligence.

  9. #48


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    i need some NFL picks for this weekend. Last Sunday I was 0-4.

  10. #49


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    i need some NFL picks for this weekend. Last Sunday I was 0-4.
    Can one bet a team that is 1-32-1 in their last 34 games with confidence? I think one can tonight. The Browns D is legit. Take Cleveland minus 3.

  11. #50


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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Can one bet a team that is 1-32-1 in their last 34 games with confidence? I think one can tonight. The Browns D is legit. Take Cleveland minus 3.
    Never in doubt...LOL. 6-3 ATS now.

  12. #51
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    CHICAGO visits the pathetic Cards who have been outscored 6-48 in just 2 games....in a real snooZZZZZZZeeeRR...take da BEARS -4.5 for an EZ win

    Good luck,

    Sharky

    Last week: 0-1

    Season: 1-1

  13. #52


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    6-3 ATS following the Browns win on Thursday night.

    San Francisco +6 1/2
    Seattle -1 1/2

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