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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

  1. #183


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    I was watching the game Vikings vs Bears last night and also the Eagles vs Redskins. I feel a shame for the amount of pressure the Bears has put on quarterback Kirk Cousins and nobody was able to do that to Nick Foles while he was playing. I got that the Eagles provides good protect to Foles but I also believe that no matter how strong someone is you will always find somebody that is bigger, better and stronger than that person.

    I need to reanalysis which teams to bet right now for the Superbowl weekend.

  2. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I need to reanalysis which teams to bet right now for the Superbowl weekend.
    ODDS TO WIN 2018-19 SUPER BOWL LIII (2/3/19)
    Team Odds
    New Orleans Saints 5/2
    Kansas City Chiefs 9/2
    Los Angeles Rams 5/1
    New England Patriots 6/1
    Chicago Bears 8/1
    Baltimore Ravens 14/1
    Los Angeles Chargers 16/1
    Dallas Cowboys 25/1
    Houston Texans 25/1
    Seattle Seahawks 25/1
    Indianapolis Colts 25/1
    Philadelphia Eagles 25/1

    As you would expect the teams that have a first round bye have the lowest odds. The need to win one fewer game to win the SB, and have the best records. But often winning in the post season is about who is hot when the post season starts. KC and the Rams seem to have peaked to early and haven't looked the same lately. The Pats will play at most 1 away game before the SB. Even though they haven't looked that good you have to like that.

    Of the teams that are playing in the wild card round the big defenses have the lowest odds in the Bears and Ravens. The Ravens have looked like a really tough opponent since Lamar Jackson started under center. They look old school with a great D, and a run first offense. Controlling time of possession and stopping or limiting great offenses is a great combination. But Lamar has a tendency to put the ball on the ground too often. That might come back to haunt the Ravens in the post season.

    The Eagles have been on a roll and are among those tied with the longest odds.

    The Colts have won a bunch of games in a row. But how will they fair if they meet a great D. Plus they are pretty beat up health wise right now. Being healthy heading into the playoffs is an important consideration.

    The Chargers looked pretty good I this year but the Ravens handled them well. The Ravens D shut down the Chargers offense, and the Chargers had no answer for Lamar. They play again this week with the Ravens hosting instead of the Chargers hosting the game. Getting a look at Lamar in their recent game may help the Chargers do better, but so far Lamar has mostly been running. That man is a very good passer. They may be waiting to set up another team that over commits to the run in the playoffs.

    Of course the Saints look to have a great shot at winning the SB. But the odds are pretty low.

    This week may decide how things play out by who wins the Chargers@Baltimore, and the Eagles@Chicago. The Colts at Houston will also figure into things if for no other reason than who ends up playing the winner of the Chargers/Ravens matchup. KC either plays the Colts or the winner of the Chargers/Ravens game. That is some reward for getting the number one seed. I would choose to play Houston over any one of those teams. I think KC should fear the Ravens most because KC is way imbalanced toward offense and doesn't have much of a defense. The Ravens would be their worst type of matchup with a defense that could shut down their high power offense, and a clock eating productive offense both putting points on the board against the poor KC defense and keeping KC's high power offense off the field for more of the game. When they met this year KC won it in overtime but tKC was well behind in the 4th quarter and mounted a beautiful comeback. That weighs on both sides of the scale. The ravens outperformed KC for most of the game, but the Ravens D couldn't close the game. If we are lucky enough to see it, it should be a great game. Both teams will be making adjustments to do better this time after playing the opponents in a recent game. The Chiefs haven't looked the same since they lost Hunt to getting banned from football. I think he was already gone in the recent game.

    Most other teams look solid but have their weaknesses. Except for maybe the Seahawks I don't see any of them managing to make it to the SB. I see the AFC being either the Patriots, Ravens, or Chargers in the SB with an good chance that KC makes to the SB. I just don't think KC is playing well enough to survive both games they need to win. They will likely be playing two of the three teams mentioned formerly. If not they will add the Colts to the opponent list. That wouldn't inspire any more confidence.

    The NFC will probably see the Saints or Bears in the SB. I give the Eagle a decent shot because they have been playing so well lately. I don't think the Rams are playing well enough or match up well with all the teams they will need to beat. Other teams are interesting but I wouldn't put any money on them to win the SB.

  3. #185


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    ODDS TO WIN 2018-19 SUPER BOWL LIII (2/3/19)
    Team Odds
    New Orleans Saints 5/2
    Kansas City Chiefs 9/2
    Los Angeles Rams 5/1
    New England Patriots 6/1
    Chicago Bears 8/1
    Baltimore Ravens 14/1
    Los Angeles Chargers 16/1
    Dallas Cowboys 25/1
    Houston Texans 25/1
    Seattle Seahawks 25/1
    Indianapolis Colts 25/1
    Philadelphia Eagles 25/1

    The NFC will probably see the Saints or Bears in the SB. I give the Eagle a decent shot because they have been playing so well lately. I don't think the Rams are playing well enough or match up well with all the teams they will need to beat. Other teams are interesting but I wouldn't put any money on them to win the SB.
    I would prefer the Seattle Seahawks over the Philadelphia Eagles if the odds are the same. Don't know who is going to play the Patriots yet. Three of my favorites would be the Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, and New England Patriots. Let just hope the Rams don't do anything stupid like they did when they play the Eagles at the 3:42 minute mark in the fourth quarter they dropped the ball after the kick off. If they do I am not betting them.

  4. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I would prefer the Seattle Seahawks over the Philadelphia Eagles if the odds are the same.
    The Seahawks were the only team I thought about adding. I just haven't watched them enough to do it. Commentators like them.

    Yes, the Eagles are a long shot. They are playing well and have been getting healthier at the right time, as long as Foles is performing well after the shot he took in week 17.

    It is pretty amazing how much leadership matters. Wentz is the better QB but the Eagles seem to be a much better team with Foles under center. Of course most QBs take a year or more to get back to their former selves after an injury like Wentz is overcoming. Some never look the same again. Remember RGIII? It helps that Foles is playing great. Trent Dilfer was one of Baltimore's worst QBs but he completed the team and allowed them to win the SB. Rather than trying to be the star and why the Ravens won. He played to make the Ravens the best team. That is what made the difference that year. Dilfer managed each game as the team needed to win, where the supposed better QBs hurt the team by trying to be the star player and often where why the team lost.

    Having Lamar under center seems to have a similar effect in Baltimore. The team has rallied around his leadership. But the offense is totally different with Lamar under center.

    Two other really good looking QBs with that leadership extra began starting this year in Mahomes in KC, and Mayfield in Cleveland. Things should be very interesting as Brees, and Brady fade away and Lamar, Mayfield, and Mahomes lead their franchises into the future.

    All these intangibles about playing as a strong team that can adjust their strategy to what is needed to win helps it become easier to win the SB by overcoming whatever obstacles are faced in the games in the post season. A team that plays ball control football when that is needed, and has a defense that is capable of shutting a strong offense down, plus an offense that can put up big numbers if that becomes necessary is usually the winning mix. A team may face matchups and play games where it unfolds so a one dimensional team can win out, but that is not likely nor guaranteed. It is more likely for teams that have to play fewer game to win the SB. Having the capability to win no matter how the game unfolds wins Super Bowls.

    The Saints has a multi-faceted strong offense that can win a game and put up a lot of points. They also have a pretty good defense that has won them a bunch of games down the stretch. Brees is a great game manager and a great QB. They play the rest of their NFC games in their home dome and the SB is in a dome. You got to like their chances to win the SB this year. The Ravens look to have that mix. The Chargers are a pretty well balanced team. The bEars have most of that but may be dealing with injuries at the wrong time. I don't think KC will win their first game. If that comes true you have to like the Patriots chances when hosting all the AFC postseason games they play in. The Ravens and Chargers are not good matchups for the them but HFA is huge for the Pats. The Pats haven't played well on the road this year. If they go to KC there is a good chance they lose. That might be KCs best shot to get to the big game.

  5. #187


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post

    Yes, the Eagles are a long shot. They are playing well and have been getting healthier at the right time, as long as Foles is performing well after the shot he took in week 17.

    It is pretty amazing how much leadership matters. Wentz is the better QB but the Eagles seem to be a much better team with Foles under center. Of course most QBs take a year or more to get back to their former selves after an injury like Wentz is overcoming. Some never look the same again. Remember RGIII? It helps that Foles is playing great.
    If the Bears sticks to Nick Foles like they did with Kirk Cousin than the game is over for the Eagles. The Eagles' strength is having a lead at the start. The problem is getting pass the bulls in the front four. That is why I said they have to play strength against the Eagles. They will squeeze the lead like a snake. If the Bears can find where to make the Eagle not have the lead. If they control the flow like they play the Texans, it would be hard for the Bears to win.

    I like the Patriots play style. They made teams think that they got them but came and kick their a**. Kansas City might be a problem for them but their weakness lies in the interceptions. But the Chiefs is not undefeatable.

  6. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I like the Patriots play style. They made teams think that they got them but came and kick their a**. Kansas City might be a problem for them but their weakness lies in the interceptions. But the Chiefs is not undefeatable.
    The only reason I said they would have trouble playing the Chiefs in the playoffs is it would be a road game. It wasn't because it is the Chiefs. The Patriots have looked bad on the road this year. At home the Patriots look like a different team.

  7. #189
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    Don't be surprised if we see a lot of upsets in the divisional round. Most of the favorites were fading at the end of the season, while the dogs are really playing well. NO is the only favorite that ended the season playing well. They are playing the red hot Eagles that seem to have divine providence working for them. The Eagles will have to play better this week. NO defense is pretty strong. Maybe not on caliber with the Bears D but they are under-rated by most people. The NO defense won most of their games down the stretch. The NO offense won most of their earlier games. That combo of having whoever needs to step up as any game develops will make them hard to beat.

  8. #190


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    They are playing the red hot Eagles that seem to have divine providence working for them. The Eagles will have to play better this week. NO defense is pretty strong. Maybe not on caliber with the Bears D but they are under-rated by most people. The NO defense won most of their games down the stretch. The NO offense won most of their earlier games. That combo of having whoever needs to step up as any game develops will make them hard to beat.
    Is it luck that the Eagles beat the Chicago Bear's. It is not a coincidence that the Bears missed the field goal at the last 10 seconds. I don't really believe in luck but I couldn't explain why uncontrollable events turn out for the Eagle.

  9. #191


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Is it luck that the Eagles beat the Chicago Bear's. It is not a coincidence that the Bears missed the field goal at the last 10 seconds. I don't really believe in luck but I couldn't explain why uncontrollable events turn out for the Eagle.
    Yes. it was luck. The Bears outgained the Eagles by a full yard per play. The real problem was they were 0 for 3 inside the red zone. You are not going to win many games doing that.

  10. #192
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    Bend but don't break defense has won many championships. Defenses that don't allow TDs on a short field keep the score low unless the other team scores TDs on a long field. The Eagles' D has the potential to keep NO scoring low, but actually doing it. We will see. NO was shut down in some games late in the season. They scored 12 against the Panthers (and 14 points when Saints rested key players in week 17) and 10 against Dallas. But they were away games (except week 17). The Eagles' D is one point per game worse than Dallas and over 2.5 points per game better than Carolina. But the Eagles' D gave up 48 points to NO earlier this season.

  11. #193


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Bend but don't break defense has won many championships. Defenses that don't allow TDs on a short field keep the score low unless the other team scores TDs on a long field. The Eagles' D has the potential to keep NO scoring low, but actually doing it. We will see. NO was shut down in some games late in the season. They scored 12 against the Panthers (and 14 points when Saints rested key players in week 17) and 10 against Dallas. But they were away games (except week 17). The Eagles' D is one point per game worse than Dallas and over 2.5 points per game better than Carolina. But the Eagles' D gave up 48 points to NO earlier this season.
    Eagles' defense and play style is corny!! Their purpose was to be aggressive but they don't realize their aggression make them lose effectiveness. This has shown up in the penalties that the Eagles accumulated during the first two quarters of the game against the Bears. Especially on personal fouls and unnecessary roughness which gave the other team first downs. See I away aim to be effective and efficient in things I do and not be aggressive. Unless being aggressive will make me effective which most of the times it doesn't. Having 13 Eagles against one Saints doesn't make the Eagles defense effective. The Eagles' defense of not allowing TD's has been cracked by the Patriots in Superbowl 52. They were still able to score points. I believe that scoring TD's won't be a problem for the Saints.
    Last edited by seriousplayer; 01-09-2019 at 06:35 PM.

  12. #194


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Eagles' defense and play style is corny!! Their purpose was to be aggressive but they don't realize their aggression make them lose effectiveness. This has shown up in the penalties that the Eagles accumulated during the first two quarters of the game against the Bears. Especially on personal fouls and unnecessary roughness which gave the other team first downs. See I away aim to be effective and efficient in things I do and not be aggressive. Unless being aggressive will make me effective which most of the times it doesn't. Having 13 Eagles against one Saints doesn't make the Eagles defense effective. The Eagles' defense of not allowing TD's has been cracked by the Patriots in Superbowl 52. They were still able to score points. I believe that scoring TD's won't be a problem for the Saints.
    That confirmed my point after seeing the Eagles play vs the Saints. They were being aggressive in the first quarter but the Saints was able to change the game with a "fake punt". The fake punt was able to give them the first down and with a matter of time they were able to score a touchdown. The Eagles was aggressive there, too. But aggression don't away result in effectiveness. Where were Nick Foles effectiveness after the first quarter?? He hasn't score after the first quarter.

  13. #195


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    Tom Brady is 41 years old now and he will be 42 in August
    it's very unusual if not unheard of for an athlete to perform at that high of a level at that age in a contact sport where he may be subject to some brutal hits
    we are witnessing something very special
    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    even if he never wins another game his performance and his career are quite remarkable
    we are lucky to see something like this
    Incredable career to say the least. Imagine his team is going to the AFC championship game for the eighth consecutive year. Ten consecutive division titles. Three, sorry to bring you into this but only you could blame Brady for last years super bowl loss considering that he threw for over 500 yards and the team never punted once.

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