Can you 'feel' a difference in EV

[Three]

Its about spread. Variance takes the difference between the average result and each data point and squares it and adds all this numbers together. The higher the difference between the average result and the extreme results the more some individual data points add to variance. Now in SD extreme data points are more common but the difference in outcome from the mean is less because the spread is small. Variance is more sensitive to a large spread than a small spread with more frequent extreme results because variance is the sum of the squares of the differences. So it is about spread rather than frequency of max bet. If both spread the same SD would have more variance. Variance is blind to runs so the argument that shoe games see streaks of max bets that are very long and SD has spread out max bets has nothing to do with variance. That will make much larger swings but swings and variance are totally different things. Swings rely on the probability of stacking up with similar results from round to round. Variance is a global view of difference between average win and each individual round squared so variance doesn't have a clue about whether you won or lost. Winning a round and losing a round for a two round push would have the same effect as winning or losing both rounds if the amount of the win or loss was the same and your average win was 0. Hopefully you have a positive per hand average win, so extreme negative results would contribute slightly more to variance than positive results of the same magnitude.

[cc12b]

These references always spark my interest.. to be clear we are not talking about STing, or ASing either?

With ASMs and CSMs in most, if not all, casinos this days how can you apply this technique? My gut feeling is "noway Jose" but somebody may have different answer.
BTW, the "feel" of my brain only works in short term, it records the result in a session or a day at most and very in selective way. If your long term feeling and sim result are the same then your IQ is superbly good. The OP talks about "FEEL" here

[Jacblacc911]

With ASMs and CSMs in most, if not all, casinos this days how can you apply this technique? My gut feeling is "noway Jose" but somebody may have different answer.
BTW, the "feel" of my brain only works in short term, it records the result in a session or a day at most and very in selective way. If your long term feeling and sim result are the same then your IQ is superbly good. The OP talks about "FEEL" here

Based on the maths of the game and if I play it accordingly, I expect to be ahead in the long term. How far ahead I don't know. Based on my results to date, things are going according to plan so I feel I am doing the right thing. But I am also constantly trying to improve on little bits where I can, such as increasing EV or reducing variance. When I play in a game with LS and Ins as opposed to one without LS or Ins, all else being equal, I definitely feel the difference. Is this ploppy? Maybe, but I don't think so, since I put this down to the surrender rule which has the effect of simultaneously increasing EV and reducing variance. This is what I mean by 'feel'. Perhaps there is another word for it.

[Three]

If you are headed for the same long run EV and SCORE with regular swings of $5K compared to regular swings of $3K you should definitely feel the difference. There is no difference in the long run but getting to the long run involves playing through BR fluctuations. If the swings are a lot less significant you should feel the difference.