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Thread: Can you 'feel' a difference in EV

  1. #1


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    Can you 'feel' a difference in EV

    Say you are playing with a simulated 1% EV and then decide you want to have a higher EV, so you increase your spread as necessary to allow for a 1.8% EV. On paper, the difference should be evident, but what I want to find out is if it is noticable in a practical sense? (Some may say, what does it matter whether you can feel a difference or not, that if you're getting the gain on paper then that's all that should matter. Correct, but I am curious).
    I have been fortunate to be able to experience double digit EV in certain plays and this definitely was noticable. But how about smaller differences such as above: 0.8.

    I know some AP's focus on how much they want to earn p/hr, then simply get the necessary bank and apply the correct spread and fire away. In which case maybe little consideration is given to their actual EV figure since win rate is their main focus.

  2. #2


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    Sim your standard rules game. Assume 6 deck. Use CVCX simming your various cuts with 8,10,12,14,16 unit spreads. Print off the sims and study the files. Take pictures if u want and put them on your phone.

    Look at where the dealer puts the cut card, and know what spread you need to beat it. Then, test tolerance to see what you can get away with.

    They’re other tools that you can utilize, but beyond the scope.

  3. #3


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    I use CVCX all the time and have a spread of 30 - 1 which is more than enough to beat the game. My EV is stated at 1%. (Standard 6D ENHC rules 4.5/6 cut, heads up play). The highest EV I could squeeze out seems to cap at 1.8% and that requires an even bigger spread which I doubt I'll get away with. Difference in EV between a cut of 4.5/6 and 5/6 is an increase from 1% to 1.3%. Alternative is obviously back counting which seems to average 1.7% EV.

    Does anyone ever manage 2% EV with just counting?

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jacblacc911 View Post
    I use CVCX all the time and have a spread of 30 - 1 which is more than enough to beat the game. My EV is stated at 1%. (Standard 6D ENHC rules 4.5/6 cut, heads up play). The highest EV I could squeeze out seems to cap at 1.8% and that requires an even bigger spread which I doubt I'll get away with. Difference in EV between a cut of 4.5/6 and 5/6 is an increase from 1% to 1.3%. Alternative is obviously back counting which seems to average 1.7% EV.

    Does anyone ever manage 2% EV with just counting?
    Yes

  5. #5


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    Obviously the lower the house edge to begin with the better your potential EV will be as there will be a higher frequency of hands where you can be max betting. Also getting to your max bet sooner will increase your EV although it also would increase ROR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jacblacc911 View Post
    Say you are playing with a simulated 1% EV and then decide you want to have a higher EV, so you increase your spread as necessary to allow for a 1.8% EV. On paper, the difference should be evident, but what I want to find out is if it is noticable in a practical sense? (Some may say, what does it matter whether you can feel a difference or not, that if you're getting the gain on paper then that's all that should matter. Correct, but I am curious).
    I have been fortunate to be able to experience double digit EV in certain plays and this definitely was noticable. But how about smaller differences such as above: 0.8.
    I am not sure what you mean by in a practical sense. I have found that you can feel the difference in the way wins and losses stack up but that it doesn't necessarily correlate to increased EV. As a matter of fact it seems to have an inverse correlation. Higher EVs tend to have wilder swings. To us mere mortals that seems a lot worse and uncertain than smaller EV that is more likely to stack wins together. We are spot on about certainty but the better and worse is all a matter of opinion. But you can feel the difference from extremely volatile play and less volatile play when you play. Since variance is swing direction neutral, variance is mute on what is obvious to you as a player using both a highly volatile and a much less volatile approach.

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    Oh to answer the question... I do feel the shifts in EV when comparing single deck to double deck to 6+ deck.

    More so than that I feel that the less decks the less volatile and swingy the results are. I'm not saying you will win every session playing single deck but the bankroll fluctuations seem much less intense at least in my experience.

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    that is dependent on your max bets , It is also max bets in relation to your bankroll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    that is dependent on your max bets , It is also max bets in relation to your bankroll.
    Not necessarily.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Member Name Hidden View Post
    Not necessarily.
    please explain. if a player keep switching between for example $400(1/2 kelly ) and $800 (full kelly ) as a max bet. They will certainly have a problem getting to the long run . IMO the long run is not always depend upon us .

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    please explain. if a player keep switching between for example $400(1/2 kelly ) and $800 (full kelly ) as a max bet. They will certainly have a problem getting to the long run . IMO the long run is not always depend upon us .
    Wrong track. Choose your low ROR and stick with it. Develop other skills in conjunction with your count. Think outside the box.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Member Name Hidden View Post
    Wrong track. Choose your low ROR and stick with it. Develop other skills in conjunction with your count. Think outside the box.
    Concepts have been discussed here. I’m happy to lurk.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Member Name Hidden View Post
    Concepts have been discussed here. I’m happy to lurk.
    Well, at least someone can get the vague references that abound here. It helps if you are comfortable thinking outside the box. We sure don't want to spell things out directly for the casino employees lurking to get.

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