Count reluctant to go positive

**Bogusjack** · 08-16-2018, 02:09 PM

Everyone, just found this forum a week ago.

I live in SW PA and mostly play at The Meadows. They have a 6 deck shoe. 3 hand max split. Can’t resplit aces. Surrender is allowed. Double any two. I’ve been playing there for years. I use traditional hi-lo method and play basic strategy. My last visit was typical of most visits meaning the running count rarely going positive. I play between 2 to 3 hours usually and each shoe takes about 12 minutes. So let’s say 5 shoes in an hour. The first hour no shoes were positive running count. The second hour 1 shoe went positive for 2 rounds. The same in the third hour.

Is this typical of what you all see in other casinos?

Do you all just stick with the min bet when this happens and just play basic strategy with deviations to the negative counts?

Why does this happen time and again?

On The flipside i’ve noticed the dealer seems to win with Blackjacks and 20’s when the count does take a turn for the positive that I find myself reluctant to up my bet.

Your thoughts please.

**CountinCanadian** · 08-16-2018, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by Bogusjack

On The flipside i’ve noticed the dealer seems to win with Blackjacks and 20’s when the count does take a turn for the positive that I find myself reluctant to up my bet.

Your thoughts please.

Yes the dealer will get more 20's and Blackjacks with a high count, but so will you. Difference being, of course, that you get paid 3:2 when you get one, and there is no extra loss when the dealer does. The dealer will also bust more often. So yes still up your bet, otherwise that would defeat the whole point of counting... Did you seriously ask that?

As to count being negative, just get up and go to a new table or take a break until the next shoe, so you don't have to play through negative EV counts.

But to your main point, no the count doesn't normally stay negative for hours...

**DSchles** · 08-16-2018, 02:24 PM

"Yes the dealer will get more 20's and Blackjacks with a high count, but so will you. Difference being, of course, that you get paid 3:2 when you get one, and there is no extra loss when the dealer does. The dealer will also bust more often."

Last sentence isn't true.

Don

**CountinCanadian** · 08-16-2018, 02:32 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

"Yes the dealer will get more 20's and Blackjacks with a high count, but so will you. Difference being, of course, that you get paid 3:2 when you get one, and there is no extra loss when the dealer does. The dealer will also bust more often."

Last sentence isn't true.

Don

Hmm I believe you 100%, I have just heard the line lots of times "more low cards means the dealer is less likely to bust"

**stopgambling** · 08-16-2018, 02:42 PM

i think you implied the dealer is more likely to bust with 2 to 6 as an upcard.

**CountinCanadian** · 08-16-2018, 02:53 PM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

i think you implied the dealer is more likely to bust with 2 to 6 as an upcard.

Well I know that, but I also held the supposedly incorrect belief that more low cards remaining in the shoe means the dealer is less likely to bust.

Not that this has had any actual effect on me. I just thought, in theory, that this helped contribute to the effectiveness of card counting, as I have heard this from a couple places. But glad to be corrected

**Three** · 08-16-2018, 03:54 PM

Two things help the dealer best. Getting a total that can be busted by a T and the density of T's. The dealer gets more bustable hands with more low cards but fewer bust. The dealer gets fewer bustable hands with more T's but busts them more often. The number of payers at the table also affects dealer bust rate since the dealer can't bust if there is nobody left to draw against. The fewer players the more likely the dealer won't need to play a hand he would normally hit.

https://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless2.htm

**BJGenius007** · 08-16-2018, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by Bogusjack

Everyone, just found this forum a week ago.

I live in SW PA and mostly play at The Meadows.

Why don't you go to The Rivers? The two casinos have different models of ASM. *wink* *wink*

**BJGenius007** · 08-16-2018, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by Bogusjack

I use traditional hi-lo method and play basic strategy.

How could this be possible?

**21forme** · 08-16-2018, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by BJGenius007

How could this be possible?

No index plays?

**Meistro123** · 08-16-2018, 04:58 PM

Two factors that can prevent the count from going very positive are crowded tables (or more specifically slow games, which usually result from crowded tables but can also be caused by side bets or slow dealers), and bad penetration.

**Bigdaddy** · 08-16-2018, 05:08 PM

Originally Posted by Bogusjack

I live in SW PA and mostly play at The Meadows. My last visit was typical of most visits meaning the running count rarely going positive. I play between 2 to 3 hours usually and each shoe takes about 12 minutes. So let’s say 5 shoes in an hour. The first hour no shoes were positive running count. The second hour 1 shoe went positive for 2 rounds. The same in the third hour. Is this typical of what you all see in other casinos?

No this is not typical. I'm familiar with the Meadows. The pen on their 6-deck shoe game varies between 4.5/5 and 5/6 depending on the dealer. You shouldn't have prolonged periods (as stated above) of not getting a high count.

**Bogusjack** · 08-16-2018, 07:24 PM

Haha.
Just got back from a quick trip to the meadows with the wife tonight. Played a half shoe. Running count varied between -5 to -10. Me and 2 other players. I think I played 12 hands. Had a blackjack. 2 or 3 hands I split and one I had a double opportunity. Under 10 minutes of playing time. Made $50 and quit.